NHL Weekend Preview 03.31.23
I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the month of April on this weekend's schedule, but the finale of the regular season is upon us. With less than three weeks to go before the bottom half of the league is dismissed to golf courses and vacation homes, these games are more critical than ever for squads trying to sneak into the dance and contenders jockeying for playoff seeding.
This week’s edition features a veteran squad with a championship pedigree clinging to the final wildcard spot in the East as they try to keep the longest active playoff streak in the league alive. We'll also get to see how the cream of the Western crop measure up against each other with three monumental tilts that will impact who lands at the top of the conference.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Saturday 4/1 3:00pm Eastern vs Boston Bruins
Sunday 4/2 6:00pm Eastern vs Philadelphia Flyers
The Penguins finally stopped the bleeding, breaking out of a four game losing streak that momentarily pushed them out of a playoff spot, with a massive win over the defending cup champs in Colorado. Their bottom six was a huge factor in the victory, led by two goals from 4th line center Jeff Carter and energetic performances from Drew O’Connor and Ryan Poehling, an encouraging sign for a group that’s been considered their team’s biggest weakness for most of the season.
The win over the Avs kicked off a 5 game pattern of win-one-lose-one that’s barely boosted the Pens back into a playoff spot at 84 points, giving them a 1 point cushion over the equally inconsistent Florida Panthers. The Senators aren’t far behind at 79 points, and Buffalo continues to lurk in the rearview with 77 and two games in hand, so this race is still incredibly tight and every single point matters as they head into two high intensity matchups this weekend.
If the playoffs started today, the Pens would be faced with the overwhelming task of facing the Bruins in the first round, and unless they can make up the 3 point gap between them and the Islanders for wildcard one, that’s the series we’ll see when the puck drops on the postseason. They'll have a chance to see how they match up with the best team in the NHL Saturday and will hope to find a chink or two in their armor.
Philadelphia is well out of the playoff picture, as most of us expected them to be at this point in the season, but they're not in the Bedard lottery either. The points don't matter to them at this point of the season, they're simply trying to figure out what they have in this group and guys are playing hard to try to earn jobs going into next year.
Head coach John Tortorella has become the face of the franchise during his first season in Philly, and his hard-nosed, never back down style of play is the perfect fit for the city of not so brotherly love. He expects this team to be a nightmare to play against no matter where they are in the standings or who they share the ice with, and that sentiment should be amplified as they try to spoil the playoff hopes of their bitter cross-state rivals.
Players To Watch
Sydney Crosby has been held off the scoresheet for three games since burying his 30th and 31st goals of the season in back to back games against Colorado and Dallas, but the competitive Captain never stays quiet for long. Expect him to bring postseason intensity in both of these critical games as he tries to will his veteran squad to the playoffs for a 17th consecutive season to continue the longest active streak in the NHL.
Jake Guentzel is riding a 6 game point streak that started with a goal and an assist in Colorado, and will be looking to extend it when Boston comes to town. He’s not a guy that shows up on highlight reels all the time with flashy stick work or shots from outrageous angles, but he’s consistently good in every aspect of the game. He’s scored 20 or more goals in each of the past six seasons, and has a slight chance to hit 40 for the 3rd time in his career as he’s sitting on 34g-34a-68pts with 7 games left to play.
Keys To The Games
The Bruins just clinched the President’s trophy with a win over Columbus on Thursday, and are now setting their sights on the NHL wins record of 62. They need to win 4 of their final 7 games to tie it, and if they can win 5 they’ll break it. While the record would be nice, their ultimate goal is to win the cup this year and the chase for 62 gives them something to play for as they close out a historic regular season and tune things up for the playoffs.
This does not bode well for a Penguins team that has been inconsistent all year, as Boston isn’t simply playing out the string over these final few weeks. The Bruins rank 1st in goals against per game with 2.09, 2nd in goals scored per game with 3.67, and have the best penalty kill in the league with a success rate of 86.43%. They can play fast and loose, or tighten things up in a physical defensive affair. They have no obvious weaknesses, although I have faith that if anyone can find a crack in their fortress it would be Sydney Crosby. Even if the captain performs up to his reputation, it’s going to take a gargantuan effort from everyone in the Pittsburgh lineup to earn the two points they desperately need from this game.
Sunday’s game against Philadelphia may seem like a soft landing after battling the league’s best Saturday, as the 26th place Flyers are 29-32-13. The Pens can’t afford to underestimate them though, because these games are always incredibly competitive.
Aside from the fact that the Flyers are sure to bring their best in an effort to spoil their hated rival’s playoff push, they’re actually playing great hockey right now. They haven’t lost in regulation in the past two weeks, going 5-0-2 over that span and scoring 4.29 goals per game while allowing an average of 3.
They’re the epitome of a bad team playing well late in the season once the pressure is off, fueled by head coach John Tortorella’s demand for exceptional effort. This makes them incredibly dangerous, and Pens bench boss Mike Sullivan will surely be hammering home the importance of a tight, detailed performance from everyone in his lineup. He served as a longtime assistant under Torts before earning a head coaching job of his own, and while the two are lifelong friends, they’re even more competitive when facing each other than the players on the ice. This will be a fun one to watch.
The Race For The West
The top of the Western Conference is tighter than ever, with six teams separated by 5 points duking it out for the number one seed. Five of those six teams will be in action Saturday night, throwing everything they have at each other in an effort to lock up home ice for the first three rounds of the playoffs.
Before we get into these titanic tilts, take a look at the standings to see just how wild the West really is...
| Pacific Division | Games Played | Points Earned |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas | 75 | 99 |
| Edmonton | 76 | 97 |
| Los Angeles | 75 | 96 |
| Central Division | Games Played | Points Earned |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 75 | 97 |
| Dallas | 74 | 94 |
| Colorado | 74 | 94 |
Needless to say, a lot is on the line and you don’t want to miss a second of this Saturday night circus.
Dallas Stars @ Colorado Avalanche
Saturday 4/1 9:00pm Eastern
Players To Watch
Stars
Joe Pavelski has been tearing up the league in preparation for another run at the cup that’s eluded him throughout his illustrious 17 year career. He’s piled up 8g-9a-17pts in his last 13 games and is applying relentless pressure all over the ice. He’s also closing in on a massive milestone. With a career point total of 992, he’s only 8 away from reaching 1000, an incredible achievement for a guy who was drafted in the 7th round and one he could definitely reach this season with 8 games left to play. Watch for him to make an impact against the defending champs as he knows he’ll probably have to go through them to reach his ultimate goal.
Miro Heiskanen has made the jump from young stud to all-world defenseman this season. He’s scored 11 goals and piled up an outrageous 51 assists to total 62 points through 71 games of action, all while leading the Stars in ice time by more than 5 minutes per game with an average of 25:37 against opposing teams’ top players. He’s a smooth skating, sauce sending, zone defending beauty and he’s only 23 years old.
Avalanche
Nathan MacKinnon is a man on a mission, barrelling down the final stretch of the season and into the crease of every goalie unlucky enough to stand between him and the net. He’s helped pull Colorado out of the wildcard race and into contention for the Western Conference title in his pursuit of a 2nd consecutive Stanley Cup. The superstar center has rattled off point streaks of 9 and 11 games while piling up 18g-22a-40pts in his last 24 contests, never going more than a single game without a point during that span. He was just held off the scoresheet Wednesday against Minnesota, so you can bet on him bouncing back and producing in this one.
Bo Byram missed a lot of time to injury this year, but the 4th overall pick in 2019 is healthy now and making an impact as the Avs prepare to defend their title. He’s scored in each of his last 3 games and chipped in an assist as well, giving him 10g-12a-22pts in only 36 games. You’ll find him flying up ice to the right of Sam Girard on the 2nd D pairing as he’s matched up against the lower half of the Dallas lineup.
Keys To The Game
These teams are both loaded with top-end talent, and while the superstars are sure to produce, it’s the depth that could really decide this game. Dallas has the advantage up front, with three dangerous scoring lines and a physical 4th line that can hold their own. Their blue line, on the other hand, leaves a lot to be desired once you get past Heiskanen. The 2nd pairing of Esa Lindell and Jani Kakanpaa isn’t awful, but they're in danger of being exposed by Colorado’s speed. The 3rd pairing isn’t in danger of being exposed, they’ll be left in the dust before the puck even drops. Joel Hanley is doing his best, but he’s a 31 year old who’s bounced between the NHL and AHL his entire career and really needs a reliable partner to hold his own in this league. That’s not something he’ll have anytime soon, as he’s stuck with 38 year old pylon Ryan Suter who gets credit for being a respected veteran who used to be good, but regularly gets turnstyled by forwards with far less talent than the ones he’ll face in Colorado.
The Avs have the opposite problem, while their D corps is one of the deepest and most talented in the league, their forward depth has been decimated by injuries to captain Gabe Landeskog and Artturi Lehkonen, as well as the offseason cap casualties of Nazim Kadri and Andre Burakovsky. They’ve tried to plug those holes with versatile forwards like J.T. Compher, Evan Rodrigues, and deadline addition Lars Eller, but those guys would ideally be playing lower in the lineup than they currently are. You can’t rely upon production from them against the likes of Tyler Seguin, Max Domi, Jamie Benn, and Wyatt Johnston.
Will Colorado’s defensive depth be enough to carry their shaky middle six? Or will Dallas be able to mask their subpar defensive depth by pinning the Avs in their own zone with four lines of furious forward pressure? We’ll get the answer Saturday night in a preview of what just might be an electric playoff series depending on how the west shakes out.
Los Angeles Kings @ Seattle Kraken
Saturday 4/1 10:00pm Eastern
Players To Watch
Kings
Philip Danault is delivering incredible value for his $5.5 million cap hit, eating difficult minutes against opposing top lines and shutting them down while still managing to produce a respectable offensive stat line of 18g-35a-53pts. His defensive acumen gets most of the attention, but he's an underrated passer, regularly dishing sweet sauce through seemingly nonexistent windows.
Viktor Arvidsson is heating up at the right time, providing secondary scoring in spades for a well balanced LA offense. He’s a well rounded winger, working with his linemates to pass the puck through the neutral zone and pressure opponents on the forecheck, but he really makes his money in front of the net battling for deflections and rebounds while distracting opposing defensemen and goaltenders alike. He was riding an explosive 3 game streak of 5g-2a-7pts before his team was stymied by hot goalies in their last 2 games, and should pick right back up where he left off against the questionable Kraken crease.
Kraken
Jared McCann was an underrated selection in last season's expansion draft, posting career highs during his first campaign in Seattle with 27g-23a-50pts. He’s already blown by those totals this year, leading the Kraken with 35 goals and dishing out 25 helpers to pile up 60 points.
Daniel Sprong has been a great story, after bouncing around the league for 5 seasons and never eclipsing 23 points, he’s having a breakout campaign for the Kraken with 20 goals, 20 assists, and 40 points in only 58 games. Even more impressive is the fact that he’s doing it while averaging only 11:10 of ice time on the 4th line, and he’s only increasing his pace with 5g-3a-8pts in his last 9 games.
Keys To The Game
The last meeting between these two teams was four months ago, and it was an absolute barnburner, with Seattle scoring in overtime to win by a final score of 9-8 (yes, you read that correctly). That game featured 17 goals, more than the two previous games they played combined, which were also won by the Kraken.
Seattle has fallen behind the pack at the top of the Pacific since those early meetings, but LA is very much alive in both the race for the division and the conference as they try to beat the league’s newest team for the first time this season and bank two valuable points in the battle to win the west.
The Kings have been on fire since trade deadline week, going 10-2-2 in their last 14 games while scoring 3.86 goals per game. That average would be even better if it weren’t for their last 2 contests, in which they lost 2-1 and 2-0 to Calgary and Edmonton thanks to unbelievable performances in net from unlikely sources in Jacob Markstrom and Stuart Skinner. Unless Philipp Grubauer becomes the latest struggling starter to channel his inner Dominik Hasek, I would expect the LA offense to break out of their slump in this one.
The Kraken have been heading in the opposite direction of LA, going 5-4-2 in their last 11 after winning 5 in a row against a parade of tanking teams (although one of those wins was against Colorado, so I’ll give them credit for that). Their offense has slowed down from the torrid rate at which they were firing earlier in the year, and it’s no longer making up for their struggling trio of goaltenders. Grubauer has just barely been the most reliable of the three (which isn’t saying much), posting a save percentage of .889 for the season, while Martin Jones has turned in a slightly worse .886. Joey Daccord has actually posted the best numbers after being summoned from the AHL, but his .903 save percentage still leaves a lot to be desired and his inexperience has been obvious as he’s allowed some ugly goals in his 6 games of action.
If the Kings can get one early and continue to lock things down in their own end (they’ve only allowed 2.23 goals per game since bringing in help on the blue line and in net prior to the trade deadline) they should be off to the races and easily bury this Seattle squad.
Minnesota Wild @ Vegas Golden Knights
Saturday 4/1 10:00pm Eastern
Players To Watch
Wild
Matt Boldy had a slow start to the season, sparking speculation from Wild fans that last year's success simply came from riding Kevin Fiala's coattails. Apparently he took that personally, because he's been absolutely on fire in his last 10 games, exploding for 11g-4a-15pts including 2 hat tricks in a 5 game span.
Frederick Gaudreau has quietly been heating up to provide much needed secondary scoring as the Wild continue to fill the massive void left by injured superstar Kirill Kaprizov by committee. He ripped home a missile off the post to score on a shorthanded breakaway Wednesday night in Colorado before burying an empty netter to salt away a huge divisional win. The two tuck performance pushed his hot streak to 5g-5a-10pts in his last 13 games, and I’d expect those numbers to grow as he’s found chemistry centering Sam Steele and Oskar Sundqvist on the 3rd line.
Golden Knights
Jack Eichel is riding a 4 game point streak of 1g-5a-6pts after assisting on Ivan Barbashev’s power play goal last night in San Jose. He’s rewarding Vegas for rescuing him from the braindead Buffalo medical staff by leading the team with 27 goals and 60 points through 62 games while putting the world on notice that he's once again an elite top line center.
Pavel Dorofeyev was recalled from the AHL Silver Knights on March 12 and given his first real opportunity to produce for the big club, flanking William Karlsson with Paul Cotter on the 2nd line and playing trigger man from the left circle on PP2. He’s already scored 5 goals and added 2 assists in only 9 games of action thanks to his incredibly quick hands in the tight areas around the net and a deceptively quick release that he uses to rip wristers with pinpoint accuracy.
Keys To The Game
When Kaprizov was injured on March 8th, most thought it meant disaster for Minnesota’s season. We all expected them to limp along without their offensive catalyst and maybe hold on to a wildcard spot before getting boat raced by a contender if he couldn’t return for the playoffs. Boy were we wrong.
While they definitely are looking forward to Kaprizov’s return, the Wild have ripped off a record of 7-1-2 without the electrifying Russian thanks to players stepping up throughout the lineup and impressive goaltending from Marc Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson. They’ve scored 42 goals and allowed only 30 in those 10 games, and they’ve drawn energy from their hardworking penalty kill with 3 shorthanded goals. They’re now leading the Central Division by 3 points and can tie Vegas for the Western Conference lead at 99 with a regulation win.
The Golden Knights have been on a tear since the end of January, going 17-4-4 in their last 25 games, and they have to be wondering what more they could possibly do to create separation from the pack of teams chasing them down. It would help if they had been able to beat the tanking Sharks Thursday night, but I’m not going to bury them for losing in overtime to a bitter divisional rival no matter how much better they are on paper.
Over their 25 game run, the Knights have outscored opponents 90-70, which is pretty impressive considering how much their special teams have struggled during that span. They’ve only converted on 15.78% of their opportunities on the man advantage, while killing only 74.55% of opposing power plays. This really speaks to their effectiveness at even strength, which will serve them well in the postseason when the refs are reluctant to make many calls.
Minnesota’s power play has been slightly better than that of the Knights, but still not great, clicking at 19.35% since the loss of Kaprizov, and while their penalty kill has been scoring lately, it’s also been getting scored on, successfully escaping the box only 69.69% (nice) of the time. These teams would both probably prefer to play this game 5-on-5.
Both these squads are incredibly physical, and with everything that’s on the line in this one I’m expecting some huge hits and maybe a fight or two. They’re incredibly evenly matched in most areas, and while Vegas has the advantage offensively, (they average 3.27 goals per game this year as opposed to Minnesota’s 2.95) the Wild have an advantage in net. Both their goalies are playing incredibly well, while Vegas has a 3 headed monster consisting of an aging Jonathan Quick, an inexperienced Laurent Brossoit, and a half-injured Logan Thompson. They’ve looked pretty good so far behind Bruce Cassidy’s defensive system, but are definitely at risk of being exposed if the Wild can get bodies in the crease (an area in which they excel). Nobody knows who will start for either team yet, but I give the Wild’s impressive tandem a clear edge over the rotating cast in Sin City.
Thanks for checking out this week's installment of the beerly hockey NHL weekend preview! I'm aaron kinney and I'm on the Beerly Hockey Podcast found anywhere you listen to podcasts!
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