Carolina Hurricanes v New York Islanders - Series Preview
The 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs will officially begin with a 7:00 puck drop in Raleigh, North Carolina as the 2nd best team in the league (at least that’s what their record tells us) hosts the never-say-die Islanders who held onto a wildcard spot against all odds. This promises to be the grittiest series of the first round, as both squads boast top-5 defenses and heavy styles of play, but lack the scoring punch we’re used to seeing from playoff teams. Let’s take a look at how their numbers compare in the chart below...
| Key Stats | Hurricanes (Metro #1) | Islanders (WC1) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 52-21-9 113 points (2nd) | 42-31-9 92 points (15th) |
| Goals For /Game | 3.19 (15th) | 2.95 (22nd) |
| Goals Against /Game | 2.56 (2nd) | 2.65 (5th) |
| XG For (5v5) | 191.5 (7th) | 183.1 (13th) |
| XG Against (5v5) | 147.7 (1st) | 180.6 (21st) |
| Shooting % | 9.6% (20th) | 9.2% (26th) |
| Power Play | 19.8% (20th) | 15.8% (30th) |
| Penalty Kill | 84.4% (2nd) | 82.2% (9th) |
| Team Save % | .902 (14th) | .915 (2nd) |
Carolina exhibits an advantage in every statistical category except goaltending (more on that later) but many of the margins are quite narrow which reflects the stylistic similarities of these squads. The largest discrepancies appear in the underlying numbers, with the Canes boasting the lowest expected goals against in the league while the Isles can’t even crack the top 20. For a team historically known for tight defensive play, it’s surprising to see New York sink so low in this category, and astounding that they were even able to make the playoffs after allowing so many chances, but that’s where their advantage in net comes into play.
Ilya Sorokin has been incredible all season, and would have a strong case for the Vezina if it weren’t for the eye popping numbers Linus Ullmark posted in Boston. His .924 save percentage is 2nd only to Ullmark’s among full time starters, while facing a much heavier workload appearing in 64 of the Isles’ 82 games. His 35.99 goals saved above average explains the difference between the Isles’ expected goals against at even strength and their actual goals against ranking, and when he gets a rare night off, Semyon Varlomov is more than capable of holding the fort.
Having a guy like Sorokin between the pipes levels the playing field in a seven game series, especially against a Hurricanes team that struggles to score and has iced a three headed monster in their crease for the past two seasons. Projected starter Frederik Andersen has been in and out of the lineup with various injuries, and has not played a postseason game since 2020. Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov have been serviceable in his absence this season, outperforming Freddy in smaller sample sizes with respectable save percentages of .910 and .909 as opposed to the Great Dane’s .903, but when called upon in the playoffs last season Raanta succumbed to injury as well and Kochetkov looked overwhelmed. That all adds up to questions in the Carolina crease heading into a series where games are more likely to be won 2-1 than 5-4.
Carolina’s offense has been ranked higher than New York’s when averaged over the course of the regular season, but it’s recently dried up at a concerning rate due to Andrei Svechnikov’s season ending injury and increased competition down the stretch. Over the final 10 games of the season they only averaged 2.5 goals per game, a ghastly number that would be even lower if not for a 6 goal explosion in the season finale against Florida.
There’s not a single player on their roster producing anywhere close to a point per game, with Martin Necas leading the team at 28g-43a-71pts while playing all 82 games. Sebastian Aho is right behind him at 36g-31a-67pts in 75 games, while the always healthy Brent Burns rounds out the trio with 18g-43a-61pts from the blue line. They were expecting to get big contributions from Max Paccioretty, but his season ended just as quickly as it began when he tragically tore his freshly repaired achilles after only 5 games of action. Reinforcements were brought in at the trade deadline in the form of Jesse Puljujarvi and Shayne Gostisbehere, but they’ve combined for a measly 12 points while struggling to adjust to head coach Rod Brind’Amour’s system.
The Islanders, on the other hand, have suddenly found their scoring touch as they battled to save their season down the stretch. In their final 13 contests, they exploded to average 3.46 goals per game, an incredible feat considering they’ve been without offensive catalyst Mathew Barzal since February.
Brock Nelson seems to have put the team on his back in the young star’s absence, racking up 8g-4a-12 points over that 13 game stretch to pump his season stat line to a team leading 36g-39a-75pts. Captain Anders Lee (28) and respected veteran Zach Parise (21) are the only other guys to break the 20 goal barrier in an Islanders sweater this season, but midseason star acquisition Bo Horvat buried 31 in Vancouver before experiencing a dramatic dip upon his arrival, only scoring 7 on Long Island.
The playoffs are viewed as a fresh start for guys who’ve faced regular season struggles, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Horvat come to life when the stakes are raised in game 1. Another guy to look out for is Noah Dobson, the 23 year old blue-liner is 4th on the team with 49 points, and 6 of them (all assists) have come in his last 4 games.
The biggest weapon at the Canes’ disposal is their tenacious forecheck: a punishing barrage of red and black sweaters that pulverizes puck retrievers and picks off breakout passes. I’ve written about it at length before, but it bears mentioning here as it’s going to be the primary obstacle New York needs to overcome in order to have a chance in this series. Carolina is one of the hardest working teams in the league, constantly pressuring opponents in all areas of the ice. They’ll be hoping to catch some of the elderly islanders flat footed and capitalize off turnovers before their opponents can set up their D-zone structure, but even if they succeed in that endeavor, they’re going to have to find a way to improve their 20th ranked finishing rate against one of the best goalies in the world.
This isn’t to say Carolina can’t do it, they have talented young stars in Aho, Necas, and Tuevo Teravainen as well as big game veterans in Burns and captain Jordan Stall. Maybe they build momentum from their offensive outburst against Florida and make quick work of this series, but I think Sorokin and the Islanders are going to make it difficult on them.
I suppose I should talk about special teams, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll be much of a factor. Each team boasts a top 10 penalty kill, and neither power play is much to write home about. Carolina’s season average on the man-advantage is higher than New York’s, but over the final 10 games of the season it has completely dried up, going 3 for 28 and draining all their momentum every time they touch the ice.
The Isles’ man-advantage has clicked at a nearly identical 10% over their last 10, and while they should get a slight boost with Barzal returning for game 1, they still are no match for Carolina’s top ranked penalty kill. Maybe one of these PK units can take control of the series (they both love to attack while shorthanded), but that’s the only way I can see special teams having much of an impact here. This thing will be won at even strength.
While New York has an undeniable advantage in net, Carolina has an even bigger one behind the bench. This is not meant as an insult to Lane Lambert, he’s done an admirable job of holding this team together and squeezing every possible ounce of production out of an aging roster that’s been outmanned most nights. I thought the Islanders would be doomed after firing Barry Trotz, but Lambert has lived up to the hype surrounding his hiring and the fact this team even made it to the playoffs is a testament to his ability to coach at the NHL level (and the greatness of his elite goaltender).
While Lambert has been solid in his two seasons on Long Island, this is his first time coaching in the playoffs and he’s going up against a guy who could eventually go down as one of the all time greats. Rod Brind’Amour captained the Canes to their only Stanley Cup in 2006 and has now brought them from the NHL’s mushy middle to bona-fide contending status, never posting a losing record or missing the playoffs since he was hired in 2019. He’s woven his relentless work ethic into the fabric of the team’s culture, and he’s an extraordinary tactician.
Not only is he the architect of their multifaceted forecheck, he is one of the best in the league at using home ice advantage to control line matchups in order to stifle opposing offenses. He’s 17-8 at home in the playoffs, including 7-1 last season. He leans heavily on his 3rd line of Jordan Stall, Jesper Fast, and Jordan Martinook to shut down opposing top lines, freeing up his top scorers to feast on whichever opposing unit he finds vulnerable.
His road record isn’t as impressive, coming in at 7-16, which is a testament to the impact his strategic line matching has on the game when he’s able to take advantage of last change. His teams have never had the personnel to match up with the elite star power present throughout the Eastern Conference, but he’s pulled off some major upsets and kept his Canes in many a series against contenders by exposing their weaknesses when he’s given the chance.
The Islanders aren’t contenders by any means, but the combination of Carolina’s depleted offense and Sorokin’s greatness means Brind’Amour will need every advantage he can get. Look for him to start off the series by throwing Stall’s unit out against New York’s top line of Barzal, Horvat, and Lee, freeing up Aho, Teravainen, and Seth Jarvis to attack whoever he deems most vulnerable in the Isle’s middle six.
Carolina comes into the first round as heavy favorites (-205 to be exact) but I expect this series to be closer than most. The Islanders are responsible with the puck, score opportunistically, and lean heavily on their brick wall between the pipes, making it a tall task for Carolina’s anemic offense to get rolling. I’m predicting a pure homer series, much like we saw from the Canes in the first round last year against Boston. Both teams will win every game at home, with Carolina advancing in seven.
