NHL Weekend Preview 03.25.23
Welcome back to the Beerly Hockey Weekend Preview! Let's get right into it...
Los Angeles Kings
Saturday 3/25 4:00pm Eastern vs Winnipeg Jets
Sunday 3/26 10:30pm Eastern vs St Louis Blues
The Kings have been on a two month tear, going 16-3-4 since snapping a 3 game losing streak on January 22nd. They haven’t lost in regulation since the week leading up to the trade deadline, kicking off a season high 5 game winning streak with a thrilling 6-5 shootout victory over the Jets on February 28th.
That was an emotional night for players and fans alike, but not because of the barn burning win or captain Anze Kopitar’s electric 4 goal performance. While the team was celebrating their victory, GM Rob Blake was finalizing a deal to dump longtime starting goalie and franchise legend Jonathan Quick and his $5.8 million cap hit in Columbus in order to bring in some much needed help in the goal prevention department.
Columbus had no interest in Quick, they’ve been tanking for Connor Bedard since November when injuries derailed their playoff hopes, but they were looking to gain some draft capital in exchange for two pending free agents: stalwart blueliner Vladislav Gavrikov and resurgent goaltender Joonas Korpisalo. They accepted Quick’s contract in order to make the deal happen, earning a 1st round pick this year and a 3rd rounder in 2024, then flipped him to Vegas before he played a single game for some insignificant assets so he could have one last run at another cup.
While Kings players and fans alike voiced their displeasure at losing the guy who won them two cups and was a beloved leader in the locker room, the move paid off in spades and the veteran led squad put their emotions aside to build on the win against Winnipeg with the help of their new teammates. They’re 8-0-2 since that night, boosting them to 92 points on the season and placing them only 4 back of Conference leading Vegas with a chance to wrestle the West away from the Golden Knights if the chips fall in their favor this weekend.
Players To Watch
Adrian Kempe is following up a breakout season by solidifying himself as the go-to sniper on the Kings’ top line and number one power play unit. He’s coming off a huge performance in Monday's 8-2 thrashing of Calgary, pumping in 2 goals to push his season total to 34 (1 short of last year's career high) and adding a power play assist to give him 55 points on the year and set a new career high.
Viktor Arvidsson had a snakebitten start to the season, failing to record a point in his first 5 games. He finally broke through with a goal and 2 assists in Washington on October 22nd, and has looked like himself ever since, producing 20 goals and 28 assists for 48 points in 61 games once he finally buried his first. He joined the scoring frenzy against Calgary with a goal and an assist, both on the power play (39% of his points this season have come on the man-advantage) to give him 4 points in his last 4 games.
Carl Grundstrom has been a prototypical physical 4th liner throughout his young career, but the 25 year old has recently found a way to explode offensively. He scored twice against the Flames, pushing his recent point streak to 3 games while averaging only 11:18 of ice time with no special teams usage.
Keys To The Games
The Jets are finally treading water again after spending a month in freefall, winning 3 of their last 4 games to re-establish a 5 point cushion over Nashville for the final wildcard spot in the West. They’ve substantially tightened up their defense, allowing more than 20 shots on goal only once during that stretch after allowing opponents to pound an average of 30.8 pucks per game on net in their previous 10. This has resulted in a much easier workload for Connor Hellebuyck, who’s seen a lot of mileage this year, and it’s translated to a vast reduction in his goals against average (2.0) over the last 4 games as opposed to the 3.3 he was hemorrhaging over the previous 10.
It’s worth noting that this recent run of success has come against a parade of cupcake opponents in Nashville, St. Louis, Arizona, and Anaheim, with the Preds being the only team remotely close to the playoff line. Nevertheless, head coach Rick Bowness has taken advantage of the opportunity presented by these soft matchups to tweak his team structure and reinstate the hard nosed, fundamental play away from the puck we’ve come to expect from the Jets.
The Kings’ offense is far more potent that any of the teams Winnipeg has faced recently, so they won’t be as easily contained. Their 3.39 goals per game ranks 10th in the NHL and they’re only getting better, scoring an average of 4.2 in their last 10 games. During that span they’ve averaged 35.9 shots on goal per game, and are playing with much more confidence since the trade deadline additions have beefed up their defense.
In 9 games since the arrival of Gavrikov and Korpisalo, LA has allowed an average of 2 goals per game. Korpisalo has split starts with Pheonix copley since his arrival, going 3-0-1 while posting a .921 save percentage and looking better and better every time he gets the call. I initially thought he would take over as the full time starter, but Copley has elevated his game as well (perhaps feeling the pressure of new competition in the crease). He’s posted an even better .935 save percentage with a record of 4-0-1.
Both these goalies should see game action in this weekend’s back-to-back, and the fact that Winnipeg’s offense is still struggling despite their defensive improvements (they’ve scored an average of 2.3 goals per game in their last 10) should give Friday’s starter a relatively easy workload.
Sunday’s game against the Blues presents a unique challenge: the dreaded late-season hot run from a team that’s fallen out of the playoff race. We see it happen every year, a handful of teams who have been anywhere from mediocre to bad all season suddenly start playing like worldbeaters now that the pressure of making the playoffs is gone. They ruin the wildcard hopes of bubble teams who underestimate them and catch contenders off guard, while fueling their fanbase with hopes of “carrying the momentum into next year” (spoiler alert: it never happens) and ruining their draft position. St. Louis is one of those teams this year.
The Blues have scored 31 goals in their last 8 games, boasting a record of 5-2-1 in that stretch. This is partially due to surprising production from trade deadline arrivals Sammy Blais (5g-3a-8pts in last 8 games) and Jakub Vrana (5g-1a-6pts in last 8 games) but the whole team is playing with a newfound sense of confidence.
Their power play is clicking at 21.74%, their penalty kill is effective 79.17% of the time, and in the 4 games since Jordan Binnington was suspended for taking toddler-like swings at the Wild after they pumped him for 5 goals on 19 shots, the Blues have allowed an average of 2 goals per game.
The Kings are a much better team on paper, and should be able to handle whatever the Blues throw at them, but the fact that they’re facing them in the second half of a back to back, paired with the age old trend of contenders underestimating teams eliminated from playoff contention makes this a perfect recipe for an upset. If I were in head coach Todd Maclellan’s shoes, I’d be preaching the importance of preparation and attention to detail in the days leading up to this one.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Boston Bruins
Saturday 3/25 1:00pm Eastern
The best team in the NHL continues to chase history as the Bruins are now just 7 wins away from tying the all time record of 62. They’ve got 11 games left to do it, but this one won’t come easy as they host the last franchise to achieve that feat in a monumental matchup of Eastern Conference heavyweights.
Tampa Bay’s record tying season came in 2018-19, resulting in one of the most shocking upsets in the history of professional sports when the 8th seed Columbus Blue Jackets (a team that had never won a playoff series since their inception in 2000) swept them in 4 games. The veteran core of this Lightning squad was resilient though, and came back the following season to win the first of 2 consecutive cups before narrowly losing their third in a thrilling 6 game series to Colorado last summer.
The Lightning are now salivating at the thought of sipping from Lord Stanley for the 3rd time in 4 years, and while I’m sure they’d love to diminish Boston’s chances of tying (or even breaking) their wins record, that would just be the cherry on top of earning 2 points in this one to snap a recent 3 game losing streak. They still have aspirations of catching Toronto for home Ice in what is shaping up to be an electrifying first round series, although they trail the Leafs by 5 points for 2nd in the Atlantic, and it would be unwise to count this battle tested group out.
Players To Watch
Lightning
Mikhail Sergachev has been an assist machine, racking up 12 helpers and adding a goal to boot in his last 10 games. You can find the electrifying blueliner firing laser stretch passes and wheeling up ice to the left of rookie Darren Raddysh on the 2nd D pairing, and saucering spectacular setups from the point on the top power play unit.
Nikita Kucherov has broken the 100 point barrier for the third time in his illustrious career thanks to a red hot 8 game run during which he’s racked up 5g-9a-14pts. He’s now up to 28g-74a-102pts on the season after tallying 2 assists in Ottawa Thursday night, and while there’s no way he’ll match his career best of 128 points set in 2018-19 with only 9 games left to play, the franchise assist record of 87 that he set that year is still a possibility.
Bruins
Jake DeBrusk is loving life under new Bruins bench boss Jim Montgomery after rescinding the trade request he submitted during last season’s head butting with well documented dickhead Bruce Cassidy. The 26 year old winger is thriving now that Cassidy is out of the picture, racking up 24g-22a-46pts in 53 games of action. He’s really ramped up the intensity in preparation for the playoffs, scoring in each of his last 4 games and adding 3 assists when the Bruins Bombarded Buffalo 7-0 last Sunday.
David Pastrnak probably isn’t going to win the Rocket Richard Trophy this season considering the ridiculous numbers Connor McDavid is putting up, but there’s a good chance he hits the 50 goal mark for the first time in his career Saturday. The Bruins’ leading sniper surpassed his career high of 48 tucks Thursday when he ripped one through Jake Allen’s five-hole after the meandering Montreal netminder misfired a pass that ended up on the stick of Tyler Bertuzzi, who promptly found his linemate alone in the slot. The man they call Pasta also notched his 46th assist of the season in that game, putting his point total at 95 to match his career high. Look for him to come out flying in what could be a multiple milestone game for the Czech superstar.
Keys To The Game
We raised a few questions about the Bruins on last week’s Beerly Hockey podcast after they punctuated a 1-0-3 stretch with an embarrassing 6-3 loss to the bottom feeding Blackhawks. Those games proved to be nothing more than a speed bump on their road to the President’s trophy, as they’ve rattled off 5 wins in a row since then while absolutely shitpumping their opponents 21-5.
They’re once again a suffocating force in their own end, smothering any semblance of an offensive opportunity with the bodies and sticks of their relentless backchecking forwards. The blue line looks like the best in the league, with Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, and Dmitry Orlov showing the world what it looks like to have 3 number 1 defenseman on one roster.
The best goaltending tandem the NHL has seen in a while is there to absorb any shots that miraculously make it through all of that, as Linus Ullmark has all but locked up the Vezina Trophy with his 35-5-1 record and .937 save percentage, and Jeremy Swayman has saved 91 of 93 shots in his last 3 games to the tune of 3 wins and 2 shutouts.
If anyone can put a chink in the Bruins’ armor though, it’s the Tampa Bay Lightning. They’ve been struggling lately, dropping 3 games in a row and uncharacteristically allowing 15 goals in the process, but they’ve proven over the years that midseason slumps aren’t indicative of how they’ll play when the chips are on the table, and this is about as big as regular season games get.
The Lightning have the 3rd best power play in the league, clicking at 25.5%, and they’ve been great against Boston’s top ranked penalty kill this year. This is the fourth and final regular season meeting of these juggernauts, with Boston taking the first two games by scores of 5-3 and 3-1 before Tampa punched back with a 3-2 home victory on January 26th. The Lightning have scored a power play goal in each of the previous meetings, going 3 for 8 (37.5%), but Boston’s powerplay has scored just as many goals with one less opportunity, a slightly improved conversion rate of 42.86%. The sample sizes are honestly too small to say which has been better, but one thing you can count on is that somebody will have success on the man-advantage Saturday afternoon.
While Boston’s record is far better than Tampa’s this season, the Lightning are still an elite team and know how to flip the switch when the stakes are high. I expect a fast, physical, playoff-like pace in this one, so forget the predictions. Just sit back and enjoy what could very well be a second round playoff preview between 2 teams that could win the cup this year.
The Lightning Round
There are too many great games this weekend to do deep dives on them all, so instead I’m going rapid fire with a couple of key points for the rest of these...
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Carolina Hurricanes
Saturday 3/25 7:00pm Eastern
Two Eastern Conference superpowers to watch after Boston and Tampa duke it out. The Leafs will look to build on a big win over Florida Thursday night and lock up home ice for the first round of the playoffs. The Hurricanes have officially clinched a playoff spot, but are eager to bounce back from a hard fought 2-1 loss to the Rangers and pad their 2 point lead on the Devils in the battle for first place in the Metro.
Leafs
Record: 43-19-9, 95 points, 2nd in Atlantic
Last 10: 6-3-1, 36 goals for, 33 goals against
PP: 25.7% (2nd)
PK: 80.8% (12th)
Player to Watch - Auston Matthews: 34g-39a-73pts in 64 games (3g-3a-6pts in last 4 games, he appears to have completely recovered from the hand injury that hampered him early in the year and is once again firing the puck with the best release in the game)
Hurricanes
Record: 46-16-8, 100 points, 1st in Metropolitan
Last 10: 6-4-0, 27 goals for, 26 goals against
PP: 20.9% (17th)
PK: 83.9% (2nd)
Player to Watch - Sebastian Aho: 31g-28a-59pts in 63 games (4 goals in last 3 games, including a hat trick in Philly)
Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Saturday 3/25 8:00pm Eastern
The Penguins are clinging to the final wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference as they host their longstanding division rivals. These games are always intense, but this one should crank it up to absolute gongshow status since the Capitals trail the flightless birds by only 4 points in the standings and can cut the gap in half with a regulation win. Expect dirty hits from Tom Wilson and post-whistle scrums all over the ice.
Capitals
Record: 34-31-8, 76 points, 6th in Metropolitan
Last 10: 4-4-2, 42 goals for, 38 goals against
PP: 21.8% (14th)
PK: 83.1% (5th)
Player to Watch - Alex Ovechkin: 41g-30a-71pts in 67 games (3 game goal streak, 6 game point streak consisting of 5g-5a-10pts, always turns it up when facing Crosby and the Pens, has the most famous blistering one-timer in the world)
Penguins
Record: 35-27-10, 80 points, 5th in Metropolitan
Last 10: 4-5-1, 30 goals for, 34 goals against
PP: 21.5% (15th)
PK: 79.4% (15th)
Player to Watch - Sydney Crosby: 31g-54a-85pts in 72 games (scored in each of his last 2 games, always turns it up when facing Ovechkin and the Caps, does absolutely everything right in every area of the ice)
Vegas Golden Knights @ Edmonton Oilers
Saturday 3/25 10:00pm Eastern
Vegas is trying to pull away in the race for the top seed in the Western Conference, leading Dallas and Los Angeles by 4 points. Edmonton is right behind the pack, trailing the Golden Knights by 6, and can pull 2 points closer with a regulation win. Both of these teams are playing their best hockey of the season thanks to trade deadline additions and their superstars elevating their games in preparation for the playoffs.
Golden Knights
Record: 45-21-6, 96 points, 1st in Pacific
Last 10: 8-2-0, 39 goals for, 28 goals against
PP: 21.1% (16th)
PK: 78.8% (17th)
Player to Watch - Alex Pietrangelo: 9g-38a-47pts in 63 games (4 game point streak consisting of 0g-7a-7pts, absolute rock on top defensive pair, plays in all situations and on both special teams units)
Oilers
Record: 41-23-8, 90 points, 3rd in Pacific
Last 10: 8-2-0, 46 goals for, 36 goals against
PP: 31.4% (1st by a mile)
PK: 75.5% (25th)
Player to Watch - Connor McDavid: 60g-78a-138pts in 72 games (setting career highs in all categories, first player to score 138 points in a season since 1995-96, the most elite offensive player we’ve seen since Mario Lemieux and Wayne Gretzky).
Thanks for checking out this week's installment of the beerly hockey NHL weekend preview! I'm aaron kinney and I'm on the Beerly Hockey Podcast found anywhere you listen to podcasts!
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