NHL Weekend Preview 02.17.23
Welcome back to the Beerly Hockey Weekend Preview!
There are so many great matchups this weekend, some with critical playoff implications and some that are just going to be damn good hockey, that it was hard to decide which matchups would make the cut this time around.
In an effort to streamline this article and get it out in a timely fashion, some of these games won't have the lengthy breakdowns of line matchups and team systems you've grown accustomed to seeing. Teams like Boston, Washington, and Carolina have been featured heavily in the past and they've pretty much stuck to their identity all season long, so check out previous installments of this series for deeper insights into their X's and O's.
Our featured team, on the other hand, is making their Weekend Preview debut, and it almost killed me to do it. Despite their fascist GM, parasitic play style, and improbable playoff odds, my journalistic integrity will no longer allow me to ignore the New York Islanders...
New York Islanders
Friday 2/17 7:00pm Eastern vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Saturday 2/18 5:00pm Eastern @ Boston Bruins
I wasn't the only one baffled by GM Lou Lamoriello's decision to mortgage what youth/future assets the Islanders still had to bring in a 27 year old two way center who seemed likely to depart for greener pastures in free agency this summer. The timeline didn't seem to make sense, with the aging veterans on Long Island well out of the playoff race and the franchise seemingly staring down the barrel of a difficult rebuild in the wake of Lou's decision to fire the best coach in hockey, a transparent attempt to divert blame from his mismanagement of a once stocked cupboard of assets.
My Beerly Hockey Podcast co-hosts and the national media alike joined me in roasting the geriatric general manager, wondering how much longer he'd be employed when Bo Horvat left them empty handed following a near miss of the final Eastern Conference wildcard spot. This premature grave dancing lasted all of 6 days, as the star center proved us all wrong by signing an 8 year extension with an average annual value for $8.5 million exactly one week after the trade went down (a deal Lamoriello called "too long and for too much money" in what should have been a celebratory press conference following its consummation).
Not only did Horvat commit to his new squad for the foreseeable future, he's continued to score at the torrid rate that earned him this payday and has him on pace for a career season, while finding instant chemistry with young playmaker Matt Barzal, who’s shifted from center to wing in order to share the ice with his new teammate. This seems to have injected a jolt of energy throughout one of the oldest rosters in the league, and the Islanders have clawed within a single point of Washington for the final playoff spot thanks to a record of 2-1-2 since his acquisition.
They're by no means out of the woods yet, but they're looking a hell of a lot better than they did before the all-star break and have locked up a productive, reliable scorer that fills a desperate need for a team considered by many to be one of the most offensively flaccid in the league. They'll need Horvat to continue scoring and the rest of the team to buckle down as they gear up for a critical back to back set of games this weekend.
Friday Night's matchup will be played in front of a raucous UBS Arena crowd as they host a Penguins team holding WC1 and a 2 point lead in the standings that could be erased with a regulation win for the Isles. Hopefully they don't blow their load on the flightless birds though, because less than 24 hours later they'll be in Boston to try and squeeze out at least a point against a Bruins team on pace to break long-standing records for the greatest regular season in NHL history.
This is just the start of a murderers row the Islanders will face for the final 25 games of the season, but they've at least given themselves a chance to do what many thought impossible before the all-star break: return to the playoffs after a one year hiatus and without the coach who was the primary reason for their only run of success since the 1980's.
Players To Watch
Bo Horvat
has 3 goals and an assist since joining his new squad, bringing his season stat line to 34g-24a-58pts. Not only has he brought offense for which the islanders have been starving, he’s winning over 52% of his faceoffs, laying some heavy checks, and dominating possession with 62.8% Corsi For, the highest shot share metric of his career.
Matt Barzal
is a dynamic playmaker, and pretty much the only guy on this roster who can create scoring chances for himself and his teammates out of thin air. He spent the first 18 games of the season exclusively doing the latter, assisting on 19 goals before burying any of his own. He finally broke the goose egg in his 19th game of the season, tucking his teams only 2 goals behind Jake Oettinger in a 5-2 loss to Dallas. Since then, he’s built his statline to 14g-35a-49pts and has been on fire since moving to Horvat’s wing with 2g-4a-6pts in his last 5 games.
Brock Nelson leads the Islanders with 52 points (22 goals, 30 assists) and is the perfect second line center for this team. He’s a beast in front of the net, always able to somehow get a stick on rebounds while battling through contact, and he’s responsible enough in his own end to match up against opposing top lines so that the dynamic duo in front of him can spend their shifts creating offense.
Ilya Sorokin
doesn’t get the credit he deserves as a member of the elite wave of young Russian goalies, due in part to Igor Shesterkin’s Vezina winning season in the larger of the New York markets soaking up the spotlight last year. Sorokin’s .923 save percentage is 4th among NHL goalies who have played more than half of their team’s games, he’s tied for the league lead in shutouts with 5, and his combination of technically sound positioning, supernatural anticipation of opposing offensive plays, and next level athleticism, makes him one of the most complete netminders in the world. He’s the primary reason this team is even sniffing the playoff conversation this year.
Keys To The Games
Ever since Barry Trotz was hired after winning the Stanley Cup with the Capitals in 2018, the Islanders have built an identity around being tough to play against and defensively responsible. This philosophy has continued after Trotz’s unwarranted firing last summer, thanks to the steady hand of his longtime disciple and eventual replacement, Lane Lambert. The Isles don’t normally light up the scoresheet, but they drag high scoring opponents down to their level with airtight defensive structure and elite goaltending, while capitalizing on the few chances they generate.
This style of play has been effective to the tune of back to back Eastern Conference Final appearances, before missing the playoffs last season due to an onslaught of injuries, Covid protocols, and a back breaking season opening road trip while they waited for construction to finish on their new arena. This season looked to be headed that same direction, not because of mitigating circumstances like they faced a year prior, but because age and the accelerating pace of play in a league that is all about offense have finally begun to catch up to them, earning the title of “the most boring team in hockey” from national media members.
That all seems to be changing with the addition of Horvat. Though the sample size here is smaller than I’d like, their offense has made a considerable jump from the pathetic 2.84 goals per game they managed in the first 52 games of the season to 3.2 goals per game in the 5 they’ve played with the ex-Canuck on their roster. A big part of this has been Horvat’s contributions to the previously lifeless powerplay, already tallying a goal and an assist on the man advantage while drawing plenty of attention from penalty kill units to open things up for his teammates. His presence has already boosted their conversion rate from a previously lifeless 15.54% to an impressive 33.33% with him in the lineup.
The Penguins are returning from a much needed road trip through California, and they look like they’ve rediscovered their offensive chemistry thanks to soft matchups against the tanking Ducks and Sharks. They’re 3-1-0 since returning from the all-star break, but that loss was an ugly 6-0 shutout against LA, so your guess is as good as mine as to how they’ll play against quality competition when they return east.
I can’t believe I’m typing these words, but Friday night’s matchup on Long Island could be a shootout. Both teams will be desperate for points as they’re competing against each other in a cut throat race for the eastern wildcard spots, and the Pens will be throwing everything they have at Sorokin and the Isles defense. New York’s recent uptick in scoring just might allow them to keep pace with the run-and-gun Penguins, and with starting goaltender Tristan Jarry on injured reserve, they might even be able to squeak a few soft ones past back-up Casey DeSmith.
Saturday's game in Boston is going to be an entirely different animal. The Bruins looked a little sluggish coming out of the all-star break, but returned to their world beating form with a gutsy 3-2 win over the Western Conference leading Dallas Stars before obliterating Nashville 5-0. New York is going to have to dig deep to keep up with their torrid pace of play, especially after a quick turnaround from their track meet against Pittsburgh.
The Bruins come at you in waves, boasting three high octane scoring lines followed by a checking 4th line that can run you through the glass if you’re not on your toes. Their D corps is one of the best in the league, retrieving dumps and executing break-out passes before most forechecks can get within 10 feet of them, and if you can manage to make it through all that, you’ve still got to find a way to beat this year’s Vezina favorite: Linus Ullmark.
It may seem like a hopeless task, but the Islanders are playing desperate hockey right now and have some extra juice thanks to their shiny new top line center, so they should at least make things interesting and if a few bounces go their way, might even be able to upset the best team in the league.
New York Rangers @ Edmonton Oilers
Friday 2/17 9:00pm Eastern
This one is going to be fun, two of the hottest teams in the league meet for a late night cross-conference showdown to see how they measure up against each other while chasing 2 valuable standings points to help them continue climbing up the rankings of their respective divisions.
The Rangers have won 6 games in a row and picked up at least a point in their last 8 (7-0-1), boosting their record to 32-14-8, good for 72 standings points, 3rd place in the Metro and 6th in the entire league. Since acquiring star sniper Vladimir Tarasenko (a move I gushed about in last weekend’s preview) they have scored exactly 6 goals in each of their 3 wins and are capitalizing on an outrageous 60% of their power play opportunities. They look absolutely unstoppable and have their eyes on overtaking New Jersey for home ice in what looks to be an incredibly entertaining first round matchup, as they only trail the Devils (who are missing their leading scorer) by 3 points.
The Oilers just lost back-to-back games for the first time since January 9th, but they’re still 9-1-3 since then thanks to improved goaltending from starter Jack Campbell and the long awaited arrival of some scoring from guys not named McDavid or Draisaitl. They’re currently 4th in the suddenly competitive Pacific division with 66 points thanks to a 60-19-6 record, but they only trail the 3rd place Kings by a single point and are only 4 back of 1st place Vegas.
Players To Watch
Rangers
Artemi Panarin is an absolute magician with the puck on his stick, leading New York in points (62), and assists (44). He’s cranked it up since returning from the all-star break, recording a point in all 5 games following his time off, but after Tarasenko joined the team Panarin has gone supernova, recording 9 points in 3 games with 6 of them being goals in his last 2. You don’t want to miss a second this guy is on the ice.
Alexis Lafreniere was held off the scoresheet for the first time in 5 games Wednesday night in Vancouver, so he’ll be hungry to make something happen tonight. The 2020 first overall draft pick has found incredible chemistry playing with fellow youngsters Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko, and he’s notched 8 points in his last 9 games.
Mika Zebanijad is riding a post-vacation hot streak of his own, scoring at least a goal in each of the 5 games since returning from the all-star break. He’s got 7g-2a-9pts over that span, and is looking pretty damn excited to have Tarasenko on his wing.
Oilers
Connor McDavid has to be mentioned every single time the Oilers come up. He’s the best offensive player in the world by a country mile, and he’s the only reason Edmonton has sniffed the playoffs in recent years. His blistering speed is rivaled only by his outrageous hands and elite hockey sense, and he’s put these tools together for 42g-57a-99pts to lead the NHL.
Evander Kane
suffered the scariest injury I’ve seen in a while when his wrist was filetted by the skate blade of Pat Maroon. That was back in November, and after taking a few games to get back up to speed following his January 17th return, Kane is once again firing on all cylinders with 4g-2a-6pts in his last 6 games.
Jack Campbel finally looks like the guy Edmonton expected him to be when they signed him to a $5.5 million salary. Over his last 9 games, he’s 8-0-1 with a .909 save percentage and a 2.55 goals against average. He’s not a worldbeater by any means, but he’s delivering slightly above average goaltending on a nightly basis when considering the lack of competent defense being played in front of him, and that’s really all the Oilers need from him when they’re shooting the lights out on the other end of the ice.
Keys To The Game
Offense. With all the star power on display here and the way these squads have been filling the nets, that’s the primary key to this one. Edmonton has scored an average of 3.73 goals per game over the course of the season, the most in the NHL, while allowing an average of 3.22 per game, the 12th highest total. The Rangers season average is 9th in the league at 3.37 scored per game, but they’ve allowed far fewer, averaging 2.65 against which is the 4th lowest of any NHL team.
If we trim these samples to only include each team’s current hot streak, they look even better. The Rangers are scoring an average of 4.88 goals per game in their past 8, while Edmonton isn’t far behind with 4.14 over their last 14. The goals against have dramatically decreased for the Oilers thanks to Campbell’s improved play, with the team allowing an average of 2.64 per night. The Rangers have seen a very slight increase, averaging 2.75 goals against per game, so there really isn’t much separating these squads at the moment outside of Igor Shesterkin’s Vezina pedigree in net.
I’m going back to the well to bet on the Rangers for the second week in a row, right now you can get the following at plus money:
- Rangers Money Line: +104
- Over 7 Total Goals Scored: +106
- Mika Zebanejad Anytime Goal Scorer: +134
Stadium Series
Washington Capitals @ Carolina Hurricanes
Saturday 2/18 8:00pm Eastern
This is an event the likes of which we’ve never seen before: outdoor hockey in Raleigh, North Carolina! Carter-Finley Stadium, home of the NC State Wolfpack, has been transformed into a sheet of ice and will be packed to the gills with boozed up fans following a day of tailgating. Atmospheres like this one are pretty hard to find, and the talent we’ll see on the ice is just the icing on the cake.
The host Hurricanes have solidified themselves as the class of the Metropolitan Division, their 80 points lead 2nd place New Jersey by 5 thanks to a 36-10-8 record. While their season totals are impressive, they’ve taken it to a new level as of late, going 11-1-1 over their last 13 while outscoring opponents to the tune of 54-33.
The visiting Capitals are trending in the opposite direction, they’ve gone 5-8-0 over their last 13 and are now clinging to the final wild card spot in the east with 62 points, barely edging Florida (who have the same point total but have one less game left to play this season). To make matters worse, they’ll be without Captain and leading scorer Alex Ovechkin, as he’s taken a leave of absence to be with his family following the death of his father. Anyone blaming Ovechkin for stepping away from the team to mourn his loss is an absolute donkey, these players are human and this man deserves to take all the time he needs to mourn his loss.
Players to Watch
Capitals
Evgeny Kuznetsov
has been elevated to the top line and tasked with carrying the offensive load in the absence of his captain and countryman, slotting in between Conor Sheary and Anthony Mantha. The silky handed Russian has 3 goals and an assist in his last 5 games, and will be counted on to produce in a big way against this tenacious Carolina team.
TJ Oshie,
the hero of Team USA’s epic 2014 olympic shootout against Russia, has always been known to show up in the big moments, and this game should be no different. He’s already stepped up his offensive production with a goal and 2 assists in his last 2 games, and I’m expecting a fiery performance out of him when the puck drops beneath the North Carolina sky Saturday night.
Darcy Kuemper
has had an up and down season in Washington after they brought him in to fill the starter’s role following his Stanley Cup victory in Colorado. He’s got a .914 save percentage on the season and is tied with Ilya Sorokin for the league lead in shutouts with 5, but when he’s not locked in he can be prone to leaky goals from bad angles, resulting in a sub .900 save percentage in 15 of his 37 games played this season.
Hurricanes
Teuvo Teravainen
has come to life lately, playing to the left of Sebastian Aho on the top line. The highly skilled Finn has 3g-6a-9pts in his last 11 games and looks more and more dangerous every time he touches the ice. Look for him to produce some highlight reel plays in the offensive zone, even if they don’t ultimately result in goals.
Brent Burns
is an absolute beauty, a wooly mammoth of a defenseman who can rip pucks into the back of the net just as well as he can bury opponents into the boards. He scored in his last outdoor game, a rivalry matchup with the Kings in Levi Stadium as a member of the Sharks back in 2015, and he’ll be itching to light the lamp in his next opportunity under the lights. He’s currently 4th on the team with 40 points (11 goals, 39 assists) and has turned up the heat recently with 5g-6a-11pts in his last 10 games.
Keys To The Game
With all the pageantry leading up to a game like this, it can be difficult for players to focus on a distinct game plan, and we tend to see emotion and clutch plays determine the winner. Whether it’s a big goal at the end of a period, or a last minute 10 bell save, the outcome of this one will probably be traced back to a single big moment.
Carolina is the clear favorite here, they have the 2nd best record in the league and they’re incredibly well rounded, ranking in the top 10 in goals for per game, goals against per game, and penalty kill percentage, and they’re 3rd in shots on goal while allowing the fewest shots against in the entire NHL.
Washington is middle of the pack at best in all these categories, so it will be a tall task to emerge with a victory here, but they’ve got some big game players on their roster and they’re desperate to get 2 points in order to hang on to their playoff spot so I’m expecting the Caps to put up a fight.
Thanks for checking out this week's installment of the beerly hockey NHL weekend preview! I'm aaron kinney and I'm on the Beerly Hockey Podcast found anywhere you listen to podcasts!
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Make sure to Come back next week!
