NHL Weekend Preview
Welcome back to the Beerly Hockey Weekend Preview!
The dog and pony show of all star weekend is over, which means the return of meaningful games and with them, The Beerly Hockey Weekend Preview. With Bo Horvat heading to the Islanders for a solid return, the first big domino of the trade deadline has fallen so expect a lot more movement in the coming weeks as contenders try to outbid each other to bolster their rosters.
This puts a lot of pressure on teams around the playoff bubble, they've only got 3 weeks to prove to their GMs that they're good enough to justify the sacrifices of futures necessary to bring in help for the stretch run. The same goes for complimentary players and depth guys on teams at the top of the standings, they'll be giving everything they have to prove they deserve to stick around instead of being packaged with picks or prospects in exchange for a star addition.
The increased pressure to perform, paired with fresh legs coming off bye weeks, adds up to the best hockey we've seen since the first few weeks of the season. The doldrums of January are officially over, and this weekend presents some huge matchups to kick off the stretch run!
New York Rangers
v. Seattle Kraken Friday 2/10 7:00pm Eastern
@ Carolina Hurricanes Saturday 2/11 7:00pm Eastern
The Rangers exploded out of their bye week with two of the most entertaining barn burners we've seen all season. They blew the roof off Madison Square Garden Monday night, trading goals with Calgary for 60 minutes before Alexis Lafreniere ended it in overtime for a 5-4 win that featured massive hits, fights, powerplays, and a controversial Flames goal that everyone on the planet thought was kicked in (except for the officials reviewing it at the league office in Toronto, who ultimately allowed it to stand).
The hot streak continued Wednesday night as the now-captainless Canucks rolled into town, giving New York a scare thanks to a 3rd period goal by Elias Pettersson that pulled the visitors within one, before Igor Shesterkin shut the door to preserve a 4-3 Rangers win. These thrilling victories have pushed New York’s win streak to three games, and they’ve collected at least a point in their last five, pushing their season total to 66 and maintaining their comfortable position in the Metropolitan Division’s 3rd place spot.
There’s still a realistic chance for the Rangers to catch New Jersey for 2nd if they continue to play this well, they trail the Devils by 6 points, but the young guns across the river just lost their best player to injury. Jack Hughes will be out of the lineup for the next few weeks, which should considerably slow down New Jersey’s high octane offense, while the Rangers just added a missile launcher to their own arsenal in hopes of boosting them over the hump into cup contention.
GM Chris Drury made the second big splash of trade deadline season, but it wasn’t the move everyone’s been expecting from him. While media and fans alike have been twisting their brains into pretzels trying to figure out what it would take for him to pry Patrick Kane out of Chicago for a reunion with fellow superstar Artemi Panarin, Drury was on the phone with Blues GM Doug Armstrong in pursuit of Panarin’s countryman: Russian sniper Vladimir Tarasenko.
The deal became official Thursday afternoon, and for the bargain price of a first round draft pick (of which the Rangers had two), 4th line grinder Sammy Blais, and low-end prospect Hunter Skinner, Drury was able to not only boost his scoring punch with Tarasenko, but also bring in reliable 3rd pair defenseman Niko Mikkola to add some size and experience to their blue line. The Blues even did them the courtesy of eating 50% of Tarasenko’s $7.5 million cap hit, eliminating the need for additional moves for New York to fit him under the NHL’s unforgiving salary cap.
With two big games this weekend, expect the Rangers to put on a show as they look to break in their new toys, extend their win streak, and collect four valuable standings points in an effort to capitalize on a huge opportunity to gain ground on the Devils and set themselves up for home ice in what looks to be a brutal first round playoff series with their cross state rivals.
Players To Watch
Vladimir Tarasenko makes his Rangers debut tonight against Seattle, and the big Russian winger is getting a prime opportunity to pump pucks past the questionable Kraken goaltenders. He'll be flanking high-flying center Mika Zebanejad with playmaking magician Artemi Panarin, who developed his game in the same harmonic offensive systems of their homeland.
Tarasenko’s greatest tool is his shot, a nuclear missile powered by forearms reminiscent of Popeye. His unreal strength and surgically precise hands allow him to release wristers that defy the laws of physics, exploding off his blade at blistering speeds with pinpoint accuracy that allows him to beat goalies from distances of 40 feet or more. His wrist shot gets the most attention because of its unique power, but it’s not the only way he does his damage. He can pound one-timers from the right circle with the best of them, embarrass defenders with his deceptive hands, and bullrush the net with his massive frame before deking a goalie out of his jock. He’s the perfect complement to Panarin’s elite playmaking ability, a reliable finisher for the impossible passes his countryman can dish through nonexistent lanes.
Jacob Trouba is a rare breed. In a league that now prioritizes speed and offensive flash when drafting blue liners, the 6’3”, 203lb captain of the Rangers plays an old school brand of defense that inspires fear in opponents by separating their bodies from the puck with bone crushing open ice hits. He anchors New York’s shut-down 2nd pairing with budding star K’Andre Miller, logging 21:08 of ice time per game while violently eliminating anyone who dares to carry the puck up ice. This talent was on full display Monday night against Calgary. he set the tone in the first period, catching Dillon Dube in the middle of his train tracks to crumple him to the ice, then defended his actions by ragdolling Chris Tanev who tried to fight him in defense of his teammate, drawing a penalty in the process. He followed it up in the last minute of the second period as Nazem Kadri cut through the right faceoff circle in an effort to beat him to the net. Trouba delivered the most violent, clean check I’ve seen in my life to the chest of the star center, stopping his momentum so abruptly his helmet popped off his head like a champagne cork, traveling through the air for a few seconds before landing on the limp body of its owner. This time it was Trouba’s previous victim, Dillon Dube, who stormed in to jump the captain in response, earning an instigator penalty and getting his eyes pumped shut by Trouba’s fists before being haphazardly tossed to the ice. Trouba has been doing this his whole career, but he’s really cranked it up this season, tallying 156 hits through 51 games so far to put him on pace for 250 by the end of the year, shattering last season’s career high of 207. While his physicality gets most of the attention, he’s an all around good defenseman, breaking up passes with his stick, extending offensive zone time with well timed pinches, and chipping in offensively with 273 points in his 648 game career.
Philip Chytil (pronounced HEE-tuhl) is on a heater, riding a 5 game goal streak in which he’s tallied 7 tucks and chipped in an assist to boot. The 23 year old center was a key member of the “kid line” with Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere that propelled the Rangers to the Eastern Conference Final in last year’s playoffs, and they’ve regained their form after a slow start to the season. The trio are slotted as the second line behind the big guns Tarasenko is joining, and have piled up 10 goals and 13 assists for 23 points over the Rangers’ 5 game point streak.
Keys To The Games
The Kraken limp into town having lost back to back games out of the all star break, falling 4-0 to the Islanders and 2-1 to New Jersey. After climbing to the top of the Pacific Division thanks to a red-hot midseason run, their offense (once among the best in the NHL) has completely dried up and they’ve been passed by Vegas who’ve suddenly remembered how to score. The Kraken have scored only 28 goals in their last 10 games and only 6 in their last four. They’re 4-5-1 in that 10 game slump, and the early questions about the sustainability of their goaltending have been answered in an ugly fashion.
The Kraken have allowed 33 goals during their 10 game slump, and starting goalie Martin Jones has turned back into the pumpkin we all remember from last season in Philadelphia. He’s posted a hideous .874 save percentage to go with a goals against average of 3.67, going 3-3-0 in his 6 starts.
Thankfully for the Kraken, Philipp Grubauer is healthy again and making a strong case to earn back the starter’s crease he occupied last season. He’s started the other 4 games during Seattle’s rough stretch, posting an impressive .944 save percentage and an incredible 1.5 goals against average, but the Kraken’s anemic offense has failed to capitalize on these solid performances, saddling him with a 1-2-1 record over that span. The Kraken have yet to announce who’s starting tonight’s game, but Grubauer should be the obvious choice for head coach Dave Hakstol if you ask me.
The Rangers have been a chameleon this season, they have the guns to play the loose, high scoring games Seattle enjoys, but they’ve also shown the ability to lock things down and wait for their chances when forced into a tight checking affair. I’m confident in their ability to win this one, especially with the added juice Tarasenko will bring in his debut on Broadway, but it’s desperation time for the Kraken and they’ll be fired up to stop their slide down the standings before it reaches catastrophic levels.
These factors bode well for a fast paced, back and forth contest with a ton of scoring chances, and maybe a few physical altercations. If you’re a gambler in a state where it’s legal (thank you Ohio for finally pushing it through for us, you should have done it a long time ago) I’d consider throwing a few bucks on the following:
- Over 6 Total Goals: -110
- Vladimir Tarasenko over 2.5 shots: -130
- Vladimir Tarasenko anytime goal scorer: +220
Carolina presents a far greater challenge, they’re white hot right now having won 7 games in a row and 9 or their last 10, and New York will need to play aggressive, mistake free hockey to have a chance in this one. I’ve written extensively about the Canes’ suffocating forecheck and the relentless pressure they apply to opponents in all three zones. If you’re interested in digging deeper into their systems, check out the Weekend Previews from 1/27/23 and 12/16/22.
While Carolina’s forecheck makes breaking out of the defensive zone incredibly difficult, the Rangers have the personnel to beat it if they execute quickly and accurately. Adam Fox is one of the best Defensemen in the league, and his mobility, vision, and passing ability are the perfect weapons to break through the endless wave of red sweaters that will be crashing against the shores of New York’s zone. If he’s on his game Saturday, he should be able to retrieve dumps and identify escape routes to either skate the puck to safety or fire it across the ice to one of his streaking forwards, changing Carolina’s angle of attack before they can do any damage.
New York’s power play has been uncharacteristically bad lately, scoring only 3 times on 28 opportunities in their last 10 games, and they’ll face a monumental task in trying to crack the hottest penalty kill in the league. The Canes have only been burned 3 of 32 times short handed during their 10 game heater, best in the league over that span, but the addition of Tarasenko’s laser beam shot gives the Rangers’ man-advantage unit a weapon they haven’t had all season.
He and Zebanejad give a PK unit two equally dangerous threats to defend, and lining them up on opposing sides of the ice stretches the kill and forces them to prioritize one or the other, opening up space for Panarin or Fox to feather a pass to whoever is left unchecked. This will be an incredibly entertaining special teams battle.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Dallas Stars
Saturday 2/11 1:00pm Eastern
Looking for a game to watch while day-drinking Saturday afternoon now that college football is over? Look no further than this rematch of the 2020 Stanley Cup Final! That series kicked off two straight championships and three straight final appearances for the Lightning (a streak they’re hoping to extend this June). The Stars, on the other hand, haven’t made it out of the first round since, but thanks to some re-tooling on the fly, a stable of budding young stars, and resurgent seasons from a few veterans, they look like the favorites to make it out of the Western Conference, which means we could see these squads clash in the final yet again.
Tampa looked slow and fatigued at the start of the season (who could blame them, they’ve played more hockey in a shorter amount of time than any other team in the league) but have rounded into form and are currently 3rd in the Atlantic Division and 6th in the entire league thanks to a record of 33-16-2 for 68 points. They seem to get better with every passing week, going 6-3-1 in their last 10 games, including an absolute pounding of the team that took the title from them last year, when they scored 5 goals on Colorado in Andrei Vasilevsky’s first shutout of the season.
Dallas kicked off their season with a three game win streak, and have been rolling along ever since. They’ve played sharp, consistent hockey almost every single night, and have boasted some big 3rd period comebacks to at least earn a point in overtime in games that seemed to be out of reach. They fight to the whistle on every single play, grind down opposing defenses with a strong offensive zone cycle, have enough flashy young talent to capitalize on their chances, enough veteran experience to hold back when those chances aren’t there, and an elite young goaltender that should be a Vezina finalist this year. Oh, and their new head coach has a reputation for taking teams to the cup final in his first season behind their bench.
They’ve put together these elements to pile up 70 points in the standings thanks to a record of 30-13-10, good for 1st in the Western Conference and 5th in the entire league. Their last 10 games have been more of the same, going 5-2-3 and collecting at least a point in their last 7 contests thanks to forcing overtime in the games they weren’t able to win.
Both teams should view this game as a measuring stick to see how they fare against top competition from the opposite conference, a useful exercise considering the decisions their GM’s need to make before the March 3rd trade deadline. I expect to see the best each squad has to offer, and no lead will be safe thanks to the explosive scoring talent littering each roster. Don’t be surprised if this game is decided by a single goal, and there’s a good chance we could even be treated to some three-on-three overtime.
Players To Watch
Lightning
Brayden Point is back in a big way after a few injury riddled seasons kept him from performing up to his lofty standards. Since exploding onto the scene with 92 points in Tampa’s historic 2018-19 season, he’s failed to record more than 64 in a campaign and missed large stretches thanks to injuries and COVID protocols. This year, however, he’s looking like the Point of old, centering the top line between fellow stars Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov, and stuffing the stat sheet once again. With a statline of 32g-27a-59pts in only 51 games, he’s already surpassed last year’s point total of 58 and he’s second on the team to Kucherov’s ungodly 76. He’s a determined net-front presence, battling through contact to bury rebounds and executing the bumper position on the Lightning power play to perfection with one-touch passes and split-second one timers. He’s also dangerous off the rush, using a deep arsenal of moves to turn defenders inside out on his way to scoring highlight reel goals.
Andrei Vasilevsky is still the best goalie in the world, despite his shaky start to the season and the elite group of youngsters nipping at his heels. The fact that it’s taken him this long to record a shutout this season is amazing, he’s been close a few times before having an unfortunate bounce sneak past him in garbage time, but in Thursday night’s 30 save performance against Colorado you could tell from the very start that he was on his game and nothing was going to beat him. His anticipation and positioning are exceptional, but the most impressive attributes are his otherworldly athleticism and a sixth sense that allows him to find pucks behind his back or above his prone body to make impossible desperation saves from unnatural positions. He’s an absolute treat to watch when his defense breaks down in front of him (which isn’t very often so soak it up when you can) because he never gives up on a play and will contort himself into a pretzel to have a chance at stopping second and third opportunities towards the yawning cage behind him.
Stars
Roope Hintz has been discussed quite a bit in these articles and on the Beerly Hockey Podcast, but he still doesn’t get the spotlight he deserves in the national media. The 26 year old Finn centers superstar play-driver Jason Robertson and ageless wonder Joe Pavelski, and has built enough chemistry with them over the past two seasons to form one of the absolute best lines in hockey. Any time Dallas needs a goal late, head coach Pete Deboer leans on this trio knowing they’ll be able to deliver. Hintz is second on the team in goals (22) and points (49) only to Robertson’s elite numbers (33 goals, 69 points). Pavelski’s 48 points (14 goals, 34 assists) are right behind Hintz, and all three guys can produce offense in a multitude of ways against top competition. Hintz brings more than just scoring punch though, he carries the defensive responsibilities for Dallas’ top trio as well. He relentlessly backchecks to negate turnovers, always puts himself in the right position in his own zone, and uses well timed stick checks to pick the pockets of puck carries before turning the play up ice.
Jamie Benn just played his 1000th game Monday, a 3-2 shootout win over the ducks. Playing this many games at all is a massive accomplishment in and of itself, especially considering the way Benn puts his body on the line battling in the goal crease, delivering big hits, and fighting when necessary, but the fact that he’s still providing top-six offense after all that mileage makes him an anomaly. The Stars’ Captain has a stat line of 20g-25a-45pts through 53 games this season, and always makes something happen for his team when he’s on the ice.
Keys To The Game
These rosters boast many of the same elements: an elite top line, an all-world goaltender, a top 10 powerplay, and a do-it-all defenseman. I can’t wait to watch Stamkos-Point-Kucherove go up against Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski, as I’m sure these head coaches will be matching their stars against each other to see who comes out on top. Expect some aggressive offensive plays early as each unit tries to land the first punch, and if any of the home-run passes or highlight reel dekes don’t work out, you can bet the other guys will be capitalizing on the turnover for a scoring chance of their own.
If I’m forced to predict a winner here I have to give Dallas a slight edge, partially because their most important players are younger and have fresher legs, but also because of the style of offense they play. The Lightning don’t have many weaknesses, they play an incredibly well rounded game and have a diverse roster with personnel who can excel against a variety of opponents. The one area where I’ve seen them struggle though is defending against heavy offensive cycles that pin them in their zone for extended periods of time, and establishing those cycles is one of the Stars’ greatest strengths.
The Rangers exposed them with a similar offensive game plan in the first game of the season, working the puck around Tampa’s zone and retrieving rebounds or holding the blue line to extend possessions until fatigue caused defensive breakdowns. At the time, I thought the Lightning were just tired from 3 consecutive cup runs and struggling to get up to speed in the first game of the year, but this strategy has yielded success against them at multiple points of the season when executed by teams with the personnel to pull it off.
I now think the offseason loss of Ryan McDonagh has hurt their ability to break these cycles. His steady presence in front of the net, anticipatory ability to pick off passes, willingness to block shots, and talent for winning board battles were all useful tools for regaining possession and clearing the zone. Tampa is going to need to find was to replace these skills by committee if they want to fix this area of their game, and they’d better do it soon because the playoffs are right around the corner and if an amateur writer like myself can point it out, you can bet that any coach they face in the postseason will be hammering it into his game plan.
Vasilevsky gets the most attention in this goaltending matchup, deservedly so. He’s a 4 time Vezina finalist, winning the trophy once, a two time cup champion, a playoff MVP, and he’s once again playing up to his elite standards with a .928 save percentage in his last 5 games. On the other end of the sheet though, is a guy who’s making a case to be his successor as best goalie in the world.
Jake Oettinger has been a rock in net for Dallas all season long, his last 5 games haven’t been quite as impressive as Vassey’s, posting a save percentage of .921, but if you expand that sample size to 10 games the 24 year old blows him out of the water with a .936 save percentage to the Russian veteran’s .918.
I love breaking down stats, but the bottom line in this goaltending matchup is that we get to watch two of the best in the world go shot for shot against each other behind two elite rosters. Whoever steps up with one more clutch save than the other guy should earn the victory in this one, but this is only one of many battles we’ll see between these stars in the years to come.
Thanks for checking out this week's installment of the beerly hockey NHL weekend preview! I'm aaron kinney and I'm on the Beerly Hockey Podcast found anywhere you listen to podcasts!
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