NHL Weekend Preview 01.27.23

     Welcome back to the Beerly Hockey Weekend Preview!

      Get ready for some highlight reel goals tonight! The powerhouse Stars host New Jersey’s gang of flashy young guns in what should be an incredibly entertaining battle between the 4th and 5th place teams in the league. 

New Jersey Devils @ Dallas Stars

Friday 1/27 8:30pm Eastern

      Dallas leads the Western Conference with 65 points thanks to their 28-13-9 record, and will be looking to extend their lead over the Jets and Kraken in an effort to lock up the top seed on their side of the playoff bracket this spring. They’ve picked up at least a point in each of their last 4 games, and are 5-2-3 in their last 10. 

      The Devils are coming off a gut wrenching 6-3 loss in Nashville Thursday night, allowing 3 third period goals to the recently feisty Predators after coming out of the second intermission tied 3-3. Even after the loss, they're 2nd in the Metro with a record of 31-13-4, and their 66 points barely edge the Stars for 4th overall in the league. 

      In any other season they would be contending for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but Boston’s historic pace has all but killed the hopes of anyone catching them. New Jersey’s sights are now set on catching Carolina for the second seed in the east, and they’re trending towards that goal with an impressive record of 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. 

Players To Watch

Stars

      Jason Robertson has followed up last year’s breakout season (41g-38a-79pts in 74 games) by ascending to superstar status. His 33 goals are fifth in the league while he ranks sixth in point production with 66, and those numbers should climb into the stratosphere with almost half a season left to play.  The 23 year old is already outperforming the $7.75 million per season he just signed for, and if he continues his current trajectory that deal will be one of the best in the league by its fourth and final year. The Stars’ well balanced roster is loaded with offensive talent, but he stands out from the pack as an exceptional gamebreaker who can create scoring chances out of thin air and has produced countless clutch goals to tie or win games late in the third period. 

      Joe Pavelski is one of my favorite players in the league, and he should be one of yours too. The ageless wonder is on pace for 22 goals and 77 points in his 17th season at 38 years old, and doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon. He’s as well-rounded as they come, excelling at faceoffs, exhibiting elite awareness to position himself in the right spot in all three zones, and he displaying proficient shooting and passing ability as well as strong leadership qualities (he captained the Sharks to the 2016 cup final and 2019 conference final). While these traits alone make him valuable, there’s one thing he does better than anyone else to ever pick up a hockey stick: deflecting shots into the net. Most tipped shots in the NHL come from low blasts that almost look like passes as they’re redirected on goal, with a few high floaters that a screening forward will wave at and occasionally get a piece of. Pavelski, on the other hand, has honed this craft into a lethal weapon around which his coaches are able to build offensive systems.  Unlike most tippers of pucks who park themselves right in the goaltender’s lap, Pavelski generally spends his time floating around the high slot, presenting his stick blade as a juicy target for his defenseman to fire at from the point. He’s spent countless hours after almost every practice working with his blueliners so they know when he wants it, where he wants it, and how fast he wants it. These reps allow him to feel how each teammate’s shot comes off his stick, and he uses this information to make adjustments to his blade angle and the force with which he contacts the shot to send it anywhere he wants. This results in an almost mechanical precision, allowing him to accurately pick corners on his deflections, something few (if any) other players can do. Goalies who read the shooter’s release and set up to cover the original path of the puck have absolutely zero chance against this magician.

      Miro Heiskanen has been a big time minute muncher for a few years, anchoring Dallas’ blue line since 2018-19 when he averaged 23:07 mins per game, an astounding workload for a 19 year old. His greatest tool is his skating, with one of the smoothest strides in the league he can chase down odd man rushes or close on attackers at his own blue line in the blink of an eye. He’s paired this with positional awareness beyond his years and a precise, active stick to become an absolute eraser of scoring chances, which makes him incredibly valuable and entertaining to watch even though he’s never piled up points at an eye popping level… that is, until this season. With John Klingberg’s departure to Anaheim during last summer’s free agent frenzy, the Finnish boy wonder has seen his minutes increase to 25:13 per night and been thrust into all the attacking situations Kilngberg used to occupy. His offensive game has blossomed, and his new role as uncontested point man on the 6th ranked power play in the league has resulted in a career high of 39 points with almost half a season left to build on that total. 

Devils

      Jack Hughes the 21 year old phenom is must see TV, after battling multiple injuries last year he’s finally healthy and showing why the Devils committed $64 million over the next 8 years to keep him.He leads his team with 31 goals and 31 assists for 62 points through 48 games of action, and I cannot wait to see him go toe to toe with Robertson. Hughes’ greatest assets are his hands and creativity, this guy can regularly embarrass the best defenders in the world with unthinkable stickhandling, and he never gives up on a play, always confident he’ll find a way to turn it into something when he looks like he’s out of options. This was on full display when he somehow found Dougie Hamilton while laying on his stomach to assist on the OT winner against Vegas Tuesday night. He’s on a scorching 7 game point streak during which he’s racked up 5 goals and 8 assists, and he’s got 13 goals and 10 helpers over his last 13 games.

      Dougie Hamilton’s 45 points rank 5th on the Devils, he’s an offensive force from the blue line with a cannon of a shot and the ability to thread passes through nonexistent lanes on the power play. He’s bouncing back from last year’s disappointing campaign in which he was limited to 62 games of action, only producing 30 points. Dougie has been on fire recently, he’s had 3 multipoint games in a row, totalling 3 goals and 4 assists, and will be looking to extend that streak in this one.

Keys To The Game

      You aren’t in the top 5 of the NHL this deep into the season if you have many weaknesses, so it’s going to be a tall task for these coaches to find areas they want to exploit in this one. They both have deep rosters and can push the pace of play, although if this goes the other way and turns into a defensive battle I give Dallas a slight edge based on the experience of veterans like Pavelski and Jamie Benn as well as the luxury of having Jake Ottinger in net. Not that I have anything against Vitek Vanecek, he’s put together a solid season between the pipes for New Jersey with a 28-20-5 record, .916 save percentage, and 2.3 goals against average, but Ottinger is on a completely different level. 

      The brick wall that resides in Dallas’ goal crease has been stupendous this year, and should be a finalist for the Vezina Trophy when it’s all said and done. Ottinger has posted a .924 save percentage, 2.24 goals against average, and his 4 shutouts are only one short of league leader Darcey Kuemper’s 5 (excuse me, how the hell is Kuemper leading the league in shutouts??)

      When looking at the skill on New Jersey’s roster and the 3.48 goals they’re averaging every game (6th in the league), you would expect their power play to be pretty decent, right? WRONG! New Jersey’s power play is only converting at a 21.13% rate this year, ranking them in the bottom half of the league (19th). To make matters worse, they’re going up against the 2nd ranked penalty kill in the league, as the Stars are killing off 83.73% of the penalties they take. The Devils can’t rely on their power play to bail them out if they need a goal in crunch time, and Dallas boasts a pretty good man-advantage unit of their own, clicking at 25.85% to rank them 6th in the NHL, so New Jersey doesn’t want a parade to the penalty box in this one.

      The Devils haven’t needed the man advantage to do most of their damage, capitalizing on turnovers and scoring off the rush to bury 132 of their 167 goals at even strength, 2nd in the league behind Seattle’s 141. This is where they thrive, they wear down opponents with wave after wave of fast, skilled players, and head coach Lindy Ruff has put a system in place that prioritizes aggressive puck movement as soon as they acquire possession. This means every Devil on the ice knows exactly where they’re going the second their opponent turns the puck over, allowing them to transition up ice as a 5 man unit before the other team knows what hit them. 

      Dallas has a pretty good transition game of their own, but their favorite way to score is with head coach Pete Deboer’s heavy offensive zone cycle. They prioritize puck possession and don’t often try to force plays that aren’t there, opting to dump pucks deep and battle for them on the boards if there isn’t an obvious option to enter the zone with control. 

      This is bad news for New Jersey, because Dallas is exceptional at puck retrieval and once they have control, they’ll work it around the outside of the zone until defenders become fatigued and lose coverage. As soon as they identify an opening, Dallas will attack it with a quick pass through the slot or drive to the net, so breaking the puck out quickly and cleanly before the Stars gain control will be essential for the Devils’ defenders. 

      Based on all this analysis, it looks like Dallas should have the edge in this game, but you can’t count out the comeback kids from the east coast. Before falling short Thursday in Nashville, The Devils had gone to overtime in 4 consecutive games, scoring with the goalie pulled for an extra attacker in the final 80 seconds of 3 of those to force overtime. They even came close to pulling off another miracle in that game against the Predators, with Dawson Mercer burying a wrist shot to make it 5-4 in the final 3 minutes before Nashville hit the empty net to douse the comeback. 

      This team has proven they won’t lay down and die, so if Dallas gets an early lead they need to be careful not to get sloppy or go into a passive defensive shell because the Devils will relentlessly push for the equalizer until the final horn. 

Boston Bruins

Saturday 1/28 6:00pm Eastern @ Florida Panthers

Sunday 1/29 5:00pm Eastern @ Carolina Hurricanes

      It’s about time I shine a spotlight on the record breaking Bruins, they’re the best team in the league and it’s not even close. Boston became the fastest team in league history to pile up 80 standings points, going 38-5-4 to reach that mark in only 47 games. The previous record of 49, originally set by Montreal in 1943-44 and tied by Philadelphia in 1979-80, was previously thought to be unattainable, but here we are. 

      On pace for 136 points, it’s going to take an unthinkable collapse for the B’s to lose their grasp on the presidents trophy, and their lofty position atop the NHL standings has been earned by dominance in almost every aspect of the game. Their 3.77 goals per game barely trails Buffalo for tops in the league, and their 2.04 goals against average is more than half a goal per game better than 2nd place Dallas. They convert on 26.83% of power plays, trailing only Edmonton and Tampa Bay, and their penalty kill is successful 86.39% of the time, almost 3% better than 2nd place Dallas. 

      They’ve outscored opponents by a margin of 82 goals over their 48 games played, more than doubling the 2nd place total of 41 owned by Dallas, thanks to an 11.2% shooting percentage that’s third in the league and an outrageous .929 team save percentage that leads the league by a mile (Dallas is number 2 at .917). This team does absolutely everything well and can beat you in a multitude of ways, whether you want to trade chances or tighten things up, and they are an absolute joy to watch. 

      This weekend features a back to back road trip against two Eastern Conference foes who play vastly different styles, so their well rounded abilities should be on full display. 

      Saturday’s Atlantic Division matchup in Sunrise should be a high flying affair, as the defending President’s Trophy winning Panthers can score with the best of them and are desperately trying to claw their way back into the playoff picture after a disappointing start to the season. 

      Sunday’s slugfest in Raleigh will be a game you absolutely do not want to miss, the Hurricanes are the number 2 team in the league with 68 points thanks to a 30-9-8 record through 47 games. They play tight defense, forecheck like rabid dogs, and are one of the few teams that could actually give the Juggernaut Bruins a challenge. This could be a potential Eastern Conference final preview, so both squads should bring their best as they see how they’ll measure up should they meet in the postseason. 

Players To Watch

      David Pastrnak is the crown jewel of Boston’s 4 line attack. He leads the team in every offensive category, his 37 goals have put him only a hat trick away from tying Connor McDavid for the league lead, and his 70 points are fourth in the NHL. An astounding 18 of those points have come in his last 10 games, with 10 goals and 8 assists to boost the B’s to an 8-2-0 record over that span. A big driver of his success has been the rate at which he’s firing pucks toward the net, he currently leads the entire league with 232 shots on goal (9 more than runner-up Timo Meier in 1 less game of action). You can tell he’s having a blast every time he touches the ice as he flies around with his contagious gap-toothed grin, making him one of the easiest guys in the world to root for.

      Brad Marchand is one of the most effective pests in the league, he’s constantly throwing opponents off their game by jabbing them with his stick when officials aren’t looking or even licking Lightning players faces if they get in his grill (you read that correctly, just ask Ryan MacDonough about his experience in the playoffs a few years ago). While his antics can be infuriating, his real value lies in his skill at both ends of the ice. Marchand’s 46 points (16 goals, 30 assists) are second on the Bruins and 23 of them have come on the power play. He also plays a key role on the penalty kill and is always a sneaky short-handed scoring threat although he hasn’t buried a shorty yet this season. 

      Patrice Bergeron does everything for this team, and his two way game has earned him 5 Selke Trophies (most in NHL history). The captain anchors the top line, the top power play unit, and sees heavy usage on the penalty kill, always with Marchand on his wing. He’s scored 18 goals and assisted on 20 for 38 points (4th on the team) while leading Boston with outrageous possession numbers (60.7% Corsi, 61.3% Fenwick). He’s also one of the best faceoff men in the league, winning 62.4% of his draws. 

Keys To The Games

      Boston doesn’t have many weaknesses, but they have to be careful not to overlook a desperate Florida team who’s clawed back within 4 points of Washington for the final wild card spot in the east thanks to a 15 game stretch during which they’ve gone 8-5-2. The Panthers had high expectations this year after a busy offseason, they made big changes to a roster that won the President’s Trophy as the top team in the regular season last year but fizzled out in the playoffs. 

      Jonathan Huberdeau, a long time fixture in Florida’s top 6, was shipped to Calgary along with promising young defender Mackenzie Weegar for Matthew Tkachuk, who’s arguably an even bigger rat than Marchand with even more offensive upside. He’s looked great in the sunshine state, leading the team with a stat line of 25g-37a-62pts, but the Panthers desperately miss Weegar’s defensive contributions as their remaining blueliners have struggled to fill the 23:22 minutes per night he averaged last season. 

      GM Bill Zito also cut ties with interim coach Andrew Brunette, a surprise to many considering he was a finalist for the Jack Adams Award as coach of the year. What many don’t consider though is the fact that voting for the award is based on the regular season, and Brunette looked dumbfounded when tasked with making adjustments during the playoffs. Florida barely beat the 8 seed Capitals before wilting in an embarrassing 4 game sweep at the hands of cross state rival Tampa Bay. This collapse prompted management to seek out experience behind the bench, so they brought in veteran Paul Maurice to inject some structure into Florida’s firewagon play style. 

      So far that hasn’t happened, the Panthers are allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game, the 9th highest total in the league and that number is growing by the day. Over the past 10 contests, Florida has given up an average of 4 goals per night, but thanks to some timely offense they’ve managed to string together some wins and are feeling confident in their chances of a postseason push. 

      While their defense and goaltending have been porous, the Panthers can score with the best of them. Their 170 goals are 5th in the NHL and they’ve feasted on  normally stout defensive squads who’ve underestimated them. They’ve buried 4 or more pucks behind Toronto, Colorado, New Jersey, Dallas, and these same Bruins earlier this season. 

      Boston has to prioritize their defensive structure to contain Florida’s big guns, something the B’s have been exceptional at so far this year. They backcheck relentlessly, regularly erasing odd man rushes thanks to hard working forwards who fly back into their zone to break up passes or deflect shots at the last second. 

      Carolina will be a different animal entirely, as the Hurricanes are arguably the most organized team in the league. They flawlessly execute coach Rod Brind’Amore’s high pressure system, suffocating teams trying to break out of their own zone with an infuriating forecheck without sacrificing their positioning so they can lock down their own end when necessary. Every single Canes player buys into this system wholeheartedly, and wouldn’t hesitate to run through a brick wall for the legendary man behind their bench. 

      While Carolinia’s systems are largely responsible for their defensive acumine (they’ve only allowed 124 goals all season, 2nd lowest in the league), it wouldn’t be nearly as effective without the elite talent of their D corps, especially the shutdown abilities of Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce. While these guys can contribute to the Canes’ attack at times (they’ve combined for 35 points so far this year) they usually leave the task of scoring from the blue line their offensive running mates, Brent Burns and Brady Skjei. This allows them to focus on what they do best: suffocating opposing superstars.

      Unfortunately for Carolina, Slavin is questionable to play in this game. He’s missed the past two contests with a lower body injury and is listed as day-to-day at the time of this writing. To make matters worse, starting goalie Freddy Andersen left Wednesday’s game in Dallas after the first period and joins Slavin on the day-to-day list. GM Don Waddell indicated that Freddy’s injury wasn’t serious with a blunt “he’s fine” when asked about it after the game, but the fact that his status is unknown going into Carolina’s tilt with San Jose Friday night could be cause for concern. Those two players have been key contributors to the Canes’ impressive goals against total this year, so if they aren’t ready to go Sunday then life gets a lot easier for Pastrnak and company. 

      In addition to the aforementioned defensive contributors, Carolina is missing a huge piece of their offense, and it’s a heartbreaker. Max Pacioretty, acquired for nothing last summer from Vegas thanks to their inability to manage the salary cap, was expected to provide firepower to a well balanced but slightly bland offense. He tore his achilles while training before the season, but worked his ass off to come back and made his Canes debut January 5th, more than a month ahead of his expected return. He went on to do just what they’d hoped, scoring 3 goals in 5 games, before disaster struck last week. 

      While carrying the puck behind the net to bleed off the final 19 seconds of a 5-2 win over Minnesota, he pulled up and immediately grabbed the back of his recently repaired leg. After a brief evaluation, everyone’s worst fears were confirmed as the team announced he’d re-torn the same achilles he’d just worked so hard to recover from. He’ll miss the rest of the season, which absolutely sucks to see considering he’s one of the good guys in this league, the veteran sniper has been well liked by his teammates in Montreal, Vegas, and now Carolina, and was looking forward to a chance at the cup that’s eluded him throughout his 15 year career. 

      While nobody wanted to see Patches go down again, his loss bodes well for a Bruins team that will be gassed having played against the fast paced Panthers less than 24 hours before Sunday’s 5:00pm puck drop. This, paired with Carolina’s holes on defense and in net should level the playing field in this one and make for an evenly matched affair.

Buffalo Sabres @ Minnesota Wild

Saturday 1/28 9:00pm Eastern

      I try to rotate a variety of teams into these weekend previews, and normally don’t like to double dip on matchups I’ve already broken down. That being said, I couldn’t resist highlighting a rematch of what may have been the game of the year when Minnesota and Buffalo blew the roof off the KeyBank Center in a 6-5 overtime barnburner 3 weeks ago. That contest featured 4 lead changes, multi goal comebacks, and an overtime that could fill a highlight reel. I’ll keep this one brief, but if you want a deep dive  into the play styles of these high scoring squads, check out the January 6th edition of this series. 

      These teams are trending in opposite directions than they were on that fateful Saturday night, Minnesota still occupies 3rd place in the Central Division but they’ve fallen back within reach of the crowded mess that is the Western Conference playoff bubble. They only lead Colorado by a single point thanks to a nerve wracking overtime win over the struggling Flyers, while the Avs got embarrassed 5-3 at home against the unapologetically tanking Ducks. That win pushed the Wild’s record to 4-4-1 since they last played the Sabres, and they really need to find their game again before they lose their foothold in the playoff race. 

      The Sabres, on the other hand, have been on fire lately. They lost 3 games in a row after toppling the Wild, but then went 6-1-1 over their next 8 games and head into Minnesota riding a 5 game winning streak. This hot run has launched them back into the playoff conversation, as they now trail Pittsburgh by only 2 points for the final wild card spot in the east. 

Players To Watch

Wild

      Kirill Kaprizov is electric as always, he’s riding a 4 game point streak consisting of 2g-4a-6pts, boating his season totals to 27g-31a-58pts.

      Mats Zuccarello was beginning to cool off, only notching a single assist in the four games leading up to Thursday’s win over Philadelphia, but he popped off for a goal and an assist against the Flyers and looked engaged in all three zones so look for him to build on tha performance when the Sabres roll into town. 

Sabres

      Tage Thompson has been on a 6 game tear, notching 3g-7a-10pts over the streak and keeping his dark horse Rocket Richard Trophy hopes alive. He’s tied with Mikko Rantanen for 3rd in the entire league with 34 goals and leads the Sabres by a mile with 68 points.

      Rasmus Dahlin has been an assist machine lately, setting up 6 of his teammates’ goals and scoring one of his own during Buffalo’s winning streak. 

Keys To The Game

      All I have to say about this one is Minnesota had better be ready to score in this one, because Buffalo’s offense looks unstoppable. I’m expecting end to end action just like we had in the first meeting between these squads, but I would be surprised to see it go to overtime again because I’m just not confident in the Wild’s ability to keep up with the scoring machine that’s marching into town. 

      Again, if you and an in depth breakdown on these teams take a look at my article from January 6th. The only thing that’s really changed has been Minnesota’s recent scoring slump (they’ve only been able to muster 2.4 goals per game since putting up 5 in Buffalo 3 weeks ago). This may be an opportunity for them to break out of that slump though, as the Sabres play a fast paced, end to end style that benefits Kaprizov and company. 

Thanks for checking out this week's installment of the beerly hockey NHL weekend preview! I'm aaron kinney and I'm on the Beerly Hockey Podcast found anywhere you listen to podcasts!

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