NHL Weekend Preview 01.20.23
Colorado Avalanche
Friday 1/20 10:00pm Eastern @ Vancouver Canucks
Saturday 1/21 10:00pm Eastern @ Seattle Kraken
The reigning cup champs are in an uncomfortable position, sitting 4 points out of a playoff spot more than halfway through the season. Their slow start to the year was excused by many due to the glut of injuries they faced (along with a slight cup hangover) but we’re approaching crunch time with the trade deadline approaching in less than two months and the Avs showing little improvement.
They lost two big parts of last year’s team thanks to the NHL’s unforgiving salary cap in Nazim Kadri and Andre Burakovsky. Nobody can blame Kadri for taking the $7million per season Calgary offered him after he posted a career high of 87 points in a contract year, but his offensive production and reliable two way play in the 2C slot have been sorely missed in Colorado.
Burakovsky had a career year of his own, posting personal records of 22g-39a-61pts while flanking Kadri for most of the season. His production earned him a respectable $5.5million per season over the next 5 years in Seattle, a marginal raise over the $4.9million he was making for the Avs but enough to prevent GM Joe Sakic from extending him considering the expensive new deals he had to dish out for superstars Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.
Losing key players to the salary cap has become the norm for cup winners, and everyone expected Colorado’s elite core as well as head coach Jared Bednar to find a way to fill these holes internally, but Kadri’s loss especially has proven incredibly challenging. He’s been the only guy to effectively center the second line for the Avs since they traded Matt Duchene and Ryan O’Reilley to kick-start their rebuild years ago. This season they’ve iced a rotating cast of JT Compher, Alex Newhook, and Evan Rodrigues in that spot to disappointing results, and the middle of the ice is once again a weakness that will be difficult to overcome when matching up against the deep spines of the Western Conference.
Even with all these struggles, the Avs have managed to hang around within striking distance of the playoff bubble. They have multiple games in hand on all the teams ahead of them, and Captain Gabriel Landeskog is projected to start skating again after the all star break, so reinforcements are on the way. I’m not worried about Colorado yet, if they keep treading water long enough to get healthy they’ll have ample opportunity to sneak into the postseason.
They have an opportunity to gain some valuable ground in the race with a set of back to back road games against high scoring Pacific division opponents. It’s not going to be easy, especially Saturday night when they visit the red hot Kraken, but Colorado has the star power and team structure to sweep this weekend if they bring their A-game.
Players To Watch
Nathan MacKinnon is an absolute thoroughbred, generating highlight reel goals by galloping through the neutral zone with earth-shattering crossovers and using his burly frame to protect the puck from helpless defenders on his way to the net. He’s a rare breed in this league, herculean size and strength paired with elite skating and the ability to stickhandle in a phone booth. He left a big hole in Colorado’s lineup when he went down with an upper body injury December 5, but he’s been on fire since returning New Year’s eve, posting 5g-10a-15pts in only 9 games.
Evan Rodrigues couldn’t fill Kadri’s shoes centering the second line, so head coach Jared Bednar decided to move him to the wing where he doesn’t have to stress over the defensive side of his game. The move has paid off in a big way, he looks much looser on the ice and has taken advantage of his recent elevation to the top line where he flanks Mackinnon with team scoring leader Mikko Rantanen. He’s piled up 12 points (3 goals and 9 assists) during a 9 game point streak before Calgary held him off the score sheet Wednesday night.
You can’t miss Cale Makar, he and Rantanen have carried this team all season despite the absence of their star teammates, and I’ll argue with anyone that the 24 year old defenseman is the best player in the world. He hasn’t put up the same eye popping point totals he posted last season, but he’s still scoring over a point per game with 13 goals and 30 helpers through 42 contests, and he’s really heating up now that MacKinnon is back to work with him, burying 4 goals and assisting on 5 more during his current 6 game point streak. While his offense is impressive, it’s his 200 foot game that really sets him apart. He positively impacts the game in every area of the ice, erasing scoring chances with his smooth skating and tenacious stick work, using his legs and his elite passing ability to exit the zone with control, embarrassing defenders with his unreal edgework and nifty hands in the offensive zone, and quarterbacking a power play unit that ranks 11th in the league even though it’s been missing key components for the entire season. He’s an absolute treat to watch even when he doesn’t have the puck, something that can’t be said for most superstars.
I’ve written extensively about Mikko Rantanen in the past, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t include him in this preview. While Makar has steadied the ship on defense until reinforcements arrive from the IR, the big winger has lived up to the pun commonly made about his nationality by Finnishing 17.9% of his shots for 29 goals in only 42 games (no Swedish indeed). He’s also assisted on 24 of his teammates’ tallies, racking up 53 points to lead the Avs this season.
Keys To The Games
Friday’s matchup will be a battle of teams who’ve fallen short of expectations thus far, although Colorado has a far better chance of recovering and finishing the season strong than the circus act that Vancouver has become. If you want to dive into the turmoil Jim Rutherford has caused in only a year as president of hockey ops in Vancouver, I chronicled his numerous missteps in last week’s preview, but the key points are: the Canucks are reeling, management has no clue what they’re doing, and they’ll probably have a new coach soon. Nonetheless, there’s a lot on the line for Colorado and they can’t afford to squander this opportunity for 2 points, and Vancouver’s players are looking for every opportunity to earn some positive vibes in this lost season (what better way to do that than to upset the defending cup champs?) so they’ll probably play with more energy than expected.
These teams excel at opposing areas of the game, with the Canucks’ top 10 offense facing the task of cracking Colorado’s top 10 defense. Vancouver ranks 9th in the league, scoring 3.36 goals per game thanks to the high-flying skill of Elias Petterson, Bo Horvat (until he’s traded at the deadline), and Quinn Hughes. The Avs are only allowing 2.79 goals per game, good for 10th in the league, thanks to elite talent on the blue line, a good team structure, and two goaltenders that rank slightly above league average. Whoever can force this game into their preferred style (loose and fun for Vancouver, tight checking and methodical for Colorado) should have the advantage here.
Saturday’s game in Seattle is going to be a different animal entirely, and the Avs are going to have to put forward one of their best efforts of the year to topple the towering Kraken. The league's newest team is a wagon in their second season, and they’ve been even better as of late, rattling off a league record 7 consecutive wins on the road (including handing the Bruins their only shutout and regulation home loss of the year) and are 8-2-0 in their last 10 games.
They’ve averaged an eye popping 4.4 goals per game during that span while allowing 2.7, and their young guns are red hot.
Matty Beniers is making a strong case for the Calder trophy, his 36 points are 2nd on the team and he’s excelling defensively to boot, facing high octane opposition while centering the top line. Vince Dunn is driving offense from the blue line, he’s riding a 9 game point streak that pushed his season total to 34, one shy of his career high.
Colorado has to play simple, straight line hockey and rely on their stars to exploit openings when scoring chances become available without trying to force plays that aren’t there. The Kraken wear you down with puck possession and don’t make many mistakes, but they sure make you pay for your own. Responsible play with the puck is key in this one, especially on the second half of a back to back.
Los Angeles Kings @ Nashville Predators
Saturday 1/21 8:00pm Eastern
The Preds, once thought dead and gone (much like the sabertooth emblazoned across their sweater) have risen from the grave and rejoined the playoff race thanks to a 9-5-2 run since mid December. They’re now only 3 points back of Calgary for the second wildcard spot in the west, and will host a hungry Kings squad that has their sights set on the Pacific Division lead Saturday night (they sit 2 points back of Vegas and Seattle who are tied at the top with 58).
If you like violence, you’ll want to tune in for this one. Both of these franchises have built an identity around size and physicality, and while they’ve recently injected more skill into their rosters to adapt to today’s high flying league, they remain true to their old school, hard hitting roots. A Saturday night affair on Broadway always promises a raucous crowd fueled by hours of honkey tonk bar hopping, and they’ll add to the larger than life atmosphere around this slugfest in Smashville.
Players To Watch
Predators
Jussi Sarros has been the driving force behind Nashville’s midseason surge, he’s always been a quality goaltender, but his last 15 games have been otherworldly and have dragged an undermanned roster back into the thick of things. He’s 7-5-3 over that span with a .934 save percentage, a 2.4 goals against average, a 38 save shutout against the high scoring Senators, and a franchise record 64 save performance in an impressive win over the powerhouse Hurricanes. Infamously underrated due to his size (5’11”, 180lbs), he more than makes up for his stature with outrageous athleticism and an elite ability to read plays and anticipate scoring chances so he can secure his positioning before shots are released.
It’s incredibly rare for a defenseman to lead his team in scoring, but that’s exactly what captain Roman Josi did last season. His 96 points were 10 more than Matt Duchene’s 2nd place total, and while he’s not putting up a point per game so far this year, his total of 36 puts him only 3 back of leading scorer Filip Forsberg, so it’s not inconceivable that he could repeat this feat with a hot second half of the season. Aside from putting up points, Josi uses his big frame and efficient stick checks to shut down elite opponents, and he always seems to make the right decision when breaking pucks out of his own end or pinching to keep offensive possessions alive. He’s a do it all defenseman, one every coach in the league would love to have, and he’s an absolute man rocket too. Some guys just have it all.
Ryan McDonagh is the newest addition to Nashville’s long legacy of bruising, shot blocking, occasionally offensive D-men who have made life miserable for opponents since the inception of the franchise. The two-time cup winning veteran was acquired in the offseason during the latest round of Tampa Bay salary cap gymnastics. It took some convincing from management to get him to waive his no-trade clause, but he eventually came around to the idea of bringing his services to Tennessee. He’s second only to Josi in shots blocked per game at 2.02, while averaging 5 minutes less of ice time this season. He’s also an immovable monolithe in front of his own net, absolutely locking down the goal crease and preventing would-be screens from interfering with his nimble goaltender.
Kings
Viktor Arvidsson is making an impact in his second season in sunny California. He was acquired via trade from none other than the Nashville Predators in the summer of 2021, but was limited to only 66 games while battling injuries that took away some of his offensive punch. He’s a gritty winger with a nose for the net, and can bang home rebounds or tip pucks past goalies with the best of them. He’s got 12 goals, 21 assists, and 33 points while playing alongside Philip Danault and Alex Iafallo on the second line, and lurking between the slot and the goal crease on the power play.
Anze Kopitar has been the MVP of this team for years. He’s one of the most well rounded players in the league, an excellent playmaker with an accurate shot, an infallible defender who’s always in the right spot, a key facilitator on the power play, and a penalty killing beast who also wins 57.9% of his faceoffs. He was held off the scoresheet Thursday thanks to an incredible performance by Dallas backup goalie Scott Wedgewood, ending a 6 game point streak that pumped his season statline to 12g-23a-35pts.
Keys To The Game
This will be a war of attrition, with big hits, net front scrums, and board battles galore. Both teams possess a few players who can generate scoring chances off the rush (Forsberg and Duchene for Nashville, Fiala and Kempe for LA) but those will be few and far between against the stout defensive units on both sides of the ice.
Nashville gets the clear advantage in net with Sarros, as Pheonix Copley’s hot run has started to fizzle and he’s now splitting starts with Jonathan Quick (both have sub .900 save percentages). On the other hand, the Kings have been better at scoring goals than the Preds, averaging 3.19 per game to Nashville’s 2.71. This could make up for the gap in goaltending talent if LA’s offense gets going, and they’ll be hungry to do so after laying an egg against the Stars on Thursday night.
The biggest key to this game, in my humble opinion, will be the ability to break pucks out of the defensive zone. Both teams have strong cycling games, and can wear you down with extended shifts by winning board battles and retrieving rebounds. Whichever squad can quickly and efficiently stymie that cycle and turn the play up ice before they burn their entire shift in their own end should give themselves a strong chance of success in this meat grinding matchup.
Washington Capitals @ Vegas Golden Knights
Saturday 1/21 10:00pm Eastern
This rematch of the 2018 Stanley Cup Final features many familiar faces with a few big-name additions sprinkled in. Alex Ovechkin is still hammering one-timers in Washington alongside Nick Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and company, while the “golden misfits” line continues to feast on neutral zone turnovers in Sin City. These teams only play twice a year since they’re in different conferences, so there won’t be many more chances to watch the core pieces of that Cinderella championship go head to head.
The Caps did what many of us thought to be impossible, weathering the storm and racking up wins while Backstrom and Wilson recovered from offseason surgery. They’re still missing John Carlson after his ear was blown off by a slap shot (no, really, his wife posted on Instagram that he had to get it sewn back onto his head) but Erik Gustafaaon has filled in for him admirably, providing offense at even strength and teeing up Ovi from the point on the power play.
Washington currently occupies WC1 in the east with 56 points thanks to a record of 25-17-6. They’re trailing the Rangers by a single point, but have played 2 more games so they’re going to need to continue their winning ways in order to pass their division rivals and climb into the Metro’s top 3.
Vegas has finally been knocked off their perch atop the Western Conference thanks to a 3 game losing streak, but they’re still loaded with talent and hungry to get over the hump. Avenging their 2018 championship loss seems like the perfect start to another hot streak, so they should be chomping at the bit to take down the Caps at home.
Players To Watch
Capitals
Alex Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of all time. His 810 career tucks are 2nd only to the great one, Wayne Gretzky (who’s record of 894, once thought unachievable, is projected to be passed sometime in the next 2 years). Ovi scores from all over the ice, but he’s best known for his patented one-timer, an intercontinental ballistic missile he launches from the top of the left faceoff circle. While his goal scoring is always the primary topic of conversation, he’s excellent in every offensive aspect of the game. He’s a great passer, producing 22 assists to complement his 30 goals on the season for 52 points which leads the Caps by a mile. He’s also a physical marvel, bearing down on puck carriers like a rhinoceros on skates before separating them from the puck in the most violent way imaginable. You’d think he’d refrain from hits like these at the age of 37 to reduce his risk of injury, but this man has proven over the years that he’s the hammer, not the nail, as he’s remained incredibly healthy, missing only 45 games over the course of his 18 year career.
Tom Wilson is one of the most hated men in the league, unless you play with him of course. He’s known for headhunting, racking up 5 suspensions totalling 36 games for illegal checks to the head, boarding, and interference. This doesn’t include the countless times he’s injured opponents with dirty hits that have gone unpunished, and he’s earned a reputation for hitting with the intent to injure. That being said, he’s an incredibly valuable piece of this Caps team, and he’s finding his offensive touch again after returning from surgery with 2 goals and an assist in his last 3 games.
Dylan Strome was signed in the offseason to help make up for Backstrom’s absence at center, but I don’t think anyone expected him to perform at this level. He’s centering the top line even after Backstrom’s return, and has built obvious chemistry with Ovechkin. He’s third on the team in offensive production with a stat line of 11g-23a-34pts.
Golden Knights
Scoring sensation Chandler Stephenson is leading the team with 40 points. He centered the 4th line on that cup winning Caps team in 2018, but since departing for Vegas he’s seen a meteoric rise in ice time resulting in exponentially greater production. He looked great filling in for Jack Eichel at 1C before moving over to his wing upon the star’s return.
Wild Bill Karlsson was the original golden boy who blossomed with an increased role with the Golden Knights. He was plucked from his 4C slot in Columbus during the expansion draft and went on to score an outrageous 43 goals while centering the top line in Vegas. He’s yet to reach those heights in the 5 seasons since, but has provided reliable production with long time linemates Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault, along with playing a key role on the penalty kill.
Keys To The Game
Vegas has been struggling to score during their 3 game skid, averaging only 1.6 goals per game during that span, but the Caps might just be the elixir that rejuvenates their offense. Washington shut out the lowly Arizona Coyotes Thursday night, but in the 4 games prior to that they were playing loose defense, allowing an average of 3.75 goals per night. If Vegas can get one early, the Caps may start to chase the game in search of offense which will open up plenty of opportunities for the Knights’ snipers.
The special teams are pretty evenly matched in this one, Vegas has the 7th ranked power play in the league, converting at a 24.79% clip while Washington’s penalty kill ranks 8th at 81.48%. The story is similar when Vegas goes down a man, their 16th ranked penalty kill is successful 78.45% of the time, and when lined up against the Caps’ 17th ranked power play (20.95%) it’s pretty hard to give the edge to either squad here.
When Vegas went to the cup final in 2018, their offense was generated primarily from rush chances created by neutral zone turnovers. They killed teams with their speed and anticipation, picking off passes and stripping puck carriers, then burning them the other way. Washington was the only team that adapted to this by dumping pucks deep and using a heavy forecheck to retrieve them, then grinding them down with a sustained cycle.
These squads have new coaches and different personnel than they did back then, but still play similar styles (although Vegas now has a variety of ways to score even if their opponents take care of the puck). Pete Deboer has introduced his cycle heavy offensive schemes to this group of Golden Knights, so expect a lot of extended zone time from both squads. Whoever’s stars can capitalize on the openings these cycles create should have the best chance to emerge victorious in this one.
Thanks for checking out this week's installment of the beerly hockey NHL weekend preview! I'm aaron kinney and I'm on the Beerly Hockey Podcast found anywhere you listen to podcasts!
Follow Us on twitter @Beerlyhockey @BeerlySports
Make sure to Come back next week!
