NHL Weekend Preview 01.13.23

      It's been a chaotic, tumultuous campaign for the Canucks since Andre Kuzmenko scored on the power play 39 seconds into the second period to give them a 3-0 lead over Edmonton on opening night. They went on to allow 5 unanswered goals as the Oilers stormed back to win that game 5-3, the first of 4 straight losses in which they blew multi-goal leads (an NHL record they wish they didn't set). 

      It took them 4 more tries to finally get their first win of the season (5-4 over the Kraken), extending the season opening losing streak to 0-5-2 and inspiring calls for the heads of once beloved head coach Bruce Boudreau, freshly re-signed top line center JT Miller, and starting goaltender Thatcher Demko.

      A few modest winning streaks sprinkled over the following months briefly inspired hope, but they've failed to find the consistency required to dig them out of their season-opening grave and it now looks like this group will be dismantled and sold as spare parts at the trade deadline, as the Canucks sit 8 points out of a playoff spot 39 games into the season with 4 teams to pass if they want to rejoin the race. 

      Not to be outdone by the embarrassing on-ice results, senile president of hockey ops Jim Rutherford has fueled a dumpster fire of drama off the ice with public criticisms of the head coach he inherited when he was hired December 9th, 2021. Boudreau had been hired directly  by owner Francesco Aqulini only a few days prior, after he cleaned house of the previous GM and coaching regimes. This was a head scratching move considering teams generally hire new management first and allow them to hand pick their bench boss, and it’s already had negative repercussions. 

      In addition to criticizing Boudreau’s team systems and training camp this year, Rutherford went on to tell Hockey Night in Canada’s Scott Oake that he was hired without even knowing the terms of Boudreau’s contract. He went on to say “It was my understanding that he was going to get a contract for just last year. He got a contract, really for two years, and so he’s still got his contract. It wasn’t that we extended him one year, it was that we just lived by the contract he had”.

      This is an awful look for all parties involved, especially Rutherford himself considering the fact that he’s a seasoned NHL executive and should know the importance of learning every detail about a job before accepting it. Still, this exchange doesn’t take the cake for worst gaffe by the veteran in his young tenure in Vancouver. 

Pending free agent Bo Horvat is the longest tenured Canuck and captain of the team. He's a consummate professional, representing the franchise with class through some tough years and consistently producing offense while playing the right way in his own end. Sounds like the kind of guy you would want to keep around right? Well apparently not if you're Jim Rutherford.

      Contract talks stalled in the offseason before completely falling apart over the past month as details leaked of the insulting 8x$5.5million deal he offered the face of the franchise. Horvat seems to be using the slap in the face as motivation to push his game to a new level this season, leading the team in all offensive categories while scoring at the highest rate of his career. It doesn't seem like he's going to remain in Vancouver unless they dramatically increase their offer and pay him what he's worth, so he's now become the most attractive player dangling on the trade block leading up to the March 3 deadline. 

      This is all par for the course in British Columbia, as one of the NHL's most ravenous fan bases has seen years of half assed rebuilds and mismanagement mire this team in mediocrity since their heartbreaking game 7 loss in the 2011 Cup Final prompted them to riot in the streets and nearly burn down their beautiful city. 

      While the Canucks' play seems to take years off the lives of their fans, it's provided high octane entertainment for the rest of us. They're one of the highest scoring squads in the league and they allow even more goals against. Every time they suit up you can expect back and forth action as they trade high danger scoring chances with whoever they face.

      This weekend features a big southeastern road trip starting with a chaotic matchup against a Panthers team that's matched Vancouver's disappointing performance this year while mirroring their firewagon play style. Sunday’s game looks like a much greater challenge against a stout defensive squad in Carolina that has been the polar opposite of the Canucks through the first half of the season.

Players To Watch

      All eyes will be on Bo Horvat until the March 3 trade deadline, as he’s almost certainly going to be dealt to a contender after management spat in his face with multiple pathetic contract offers. He’s having a career year with 29 goals, 16 assists, and 45 points while playing in all situations and providing steady leadership throughout Vancouver’s first 40 games. Every shift is an audition for a number of playoff-bound teams considering spending assets on his services for a cup run, and the price of his next contract rises with every goal he scores. He’s taken his hard working play style to a level beyond even his lofty standards, always churning his legs to beat opponents to loose pucks and occupy dangerous areas of the ice. He’ll look to extend his current point streak to 7 games when the puck drops Saturday in Sunrise.

      Elias Petterson, commonly referred to as an alien, lives up to his title using extraterrestrial skill to escape pressure and a meteoric one-timer to beat goalies. His slight frame seems like it would disintegrate behind the power of his shot and his silky hands allow him to make unimaginable plays with the puck in tight spaces. He’s electrifying to watch, especially on the power play, and is thriving in Boudreau’s creative offensive system with 45 goals and 59 assists for 104 points in 93 games since his new bench boss was hired.

      Quinn Hughes is the single most valuable piece of Vancouver’s shaky D corps, driving offense from the blue line with his smooth skating and elite vision. He’s not impressing anyone with his 2 goals this season, but he’s tied with Petterson for the team lead in assists with 31 (15 of which have come on the power play). He’s not the biggest guy on the ice but he uses his deceptive footwork and supernatural anticipation to burn over-zealous opponents by baiting them into checks before slipping around them and pushing the play up ice with speed.

Keys To The Games

      There should be no shortage of fireworks Saturday night, as both teams rank in the top half of the league offensively while occupying spots in the bottom 10 when it comes to goal prevention. Vancouver has been slightly better at scoring, coming in at 8th in the league by pumping 3.41 pucks past opposing goalies on a nightly basis while Florida ranks 15th at 3.23. 

      When it comes to preventing goals on the other hand, the Canucks are almost dead last. They allow 3.95 per game, beating only the lowly Anaheim Ducks (4.12) and Columbus Blue Jackets (3.98). Florida is marginally better in this regard, but still quite porous as their 3.44 goals against per game is 10th most in the league. 

      All this adds up to an exciting matchup where highly skilled players are given time and space to create offense, so expect a lot of goals in this one and bet the over if you’re so inclined.

      Normally I wouldn’t highlight a game between teams that are trending toward playoff elimination (Vancouver sits 10 points back of Edmonton for the final spot in the west while Florida trails Pittsburgh by 6 points for the final spot in the east) but they aren’t 100% dead yet and still have a little bit of time to go on a run to get back in the race before their GM’s pull the cord on the season and dismantle their rosters for futures at the trade deadline. 

      Both squads should be playing desperate hockey; so the fast pace of play, offensive stars, and defensive liabilities that have defined these teams’ seasons give this game potential to be an incredibly entertaining affair. Neither squad plays with much structure, and the goaltending has been terrible on both ends, so the only way for these teams to taste victory is to outscore their problems by taking risks, which often produces highlight reel plays for our viewing pleasure. 

      The Hurricanes present a much greater challenge. They play tight, organized defense, apply a ton of pressure in the offensive and neutral zones, and are finally getting healthy with the return of top 6 winger Max Pacioretty and starting goaltender Frederick Andersson. 

      Carolina’s built a multi-year resume of success by embracing head coach Rod Brind’Amore’s system of possession and pressure. When they don’t have the puck, they do everything they can to get it back by applying pressure in every area of the ice using their heavy 1-2-2 forecheck that wreaks havoc on inexperienced defensemen retrieving dumps, or unsuspecting wingers that aren’t anticipating running into a pinching blue-liner while receiving a breakout pass. 

 
      Vancouver’s best chance to generate offense will be to escape this pressure quickly by frequently changing which side of the zone they use to carry or pass the puck out. If they can change the strong side of the ice with a D to D pass before the lead forechecker (F1) reaches the puck carrier, it forces every Carolina player to adjust their position as they take on different responsibilities. The new strong side D pinches, the 3rd forechecker (F3) now becomes F1, and the 2nd forechecker (F2) now drifts back to cover the weak side point as the D that previously occupied that spot has to cover the middle of the ice in case his pinching partner is unsuccessful. Sound complicated? That’s because it is, and Carolina is elite at understanding and executing these changes in responsibility throughout the flow of a game, but the complexity of the system does present opportunities for highly skilled teams to expose it if they get creative enough with their puck movement during break-outs.

      Once the Canes get the puck, they don’t give it back easily because they avoid unnecessary risks. They’re organized and methodical with their attack, always knowing where their teammates are and never being afraid to pass the puck back to reload if they encounter pressure. They poke and prod until they find a clear opening (which shouldn’t take long against the firewagon Canucks) and then they exploit it by waltzing into the zone or sending an uncontested shot on net.

      Vancouver needs to buckle down and protect their goaltender, checking their assignments tightly and forcing Carolina to take chances for offensive opportunities. This type of game plan has proven difficult for the Canucks to execute all year, so I don’t like their chances, but if they can pull it off it could provide a morale boost and give them just the spark they need to ignite a season saving hot streak. 

Winnipeg Jets @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Friday 1/13 7:00pm Eastern 

      Winnipeg has been a spectacular comeback story this season, bouncing back from a dreadful 2021-22 campaign thanks to the steady hand of new bench boss Rick Bowness. They sit 27-14-1 through 41 games, good for 55 standings points and 2nd place in the Central Division. 

      The Jets have a chance to tie Dallas for the division lead and pull within a point of Vegas for first place in the Western Conference if they can take care of business tonight, but the veteran squad from Pittsburgh won’t to make it easy for them as they’ve won 2 in a row and arelocked in the middle of a viscous Eastern Conference playoff race. 

      The Pens season has been a roller coaster of streaks rivaled only by the St. Louis Blues. They won 4 of their first 5 games, then lost 9 of their next 11 before catching fire for a 20 game stretch in which they went 15-3-2. After that scorching run they lost 6 in a row before getting back on track this week with back to back wins over the underwhelming Coyotes and Canucks. They currently sit in the second wild card spot in the east with 48 points, 4 back of Washington and 1 ahead of the pesky Islanders with multiple games in hand on each. 

      This game against Winnipeg is their first chance to beat a quality opponent since their recent losing streak, so head coach Mike Sullivan will surely be hammering home the importance of getting up for this one and playing the way he knows his experienced squad can in order to right the ship and climb back up the standings.

Players To Watch

Penguins

      Captain Sidney Crosby has already been highlighted in the first edition of this article, but that was over a month ago and it’s hard to overstate just how privileged we are to watch him every time he laces ‘em up. He’s cooled off from his torrid early season pace, only notching 4 goals and 4 assists for 10 points in his last 10 games, but 5 of those have come in his last 3 so he might be starting to heat up again. He leads the team in all offensive categories with a stat line of 21g-27a-48pts and he does everything else at an elite level too. He wins faceoffs, shuts down opposing top lines, pushes the rest of the team to be better with his insane work ethic, and does anything else you can imagine when it comes to hockey. This is one of the all time greats and we get to watch him in his late prime, so soak it in.

      Evgeni Malkin has been there with Sid since the captain was drafted in 2005. The massive Russian hasn’t seemed to mind Crosby getting the majority of media attention, along with the focus of top opponents. He’s more than happy to do his thing centering the second line, accumulating 458 goals, 727 assists, and 1,185 points over his 1,021 game career. He’s a lock for the hall of fame when he decides to call it a career, but that still looks like it’s a long way off as he just signed a 4 year contract extension and is still producing like a star. He has 14g-15a-39pts in 40 games this year thanks to his powerful shot, silky hands, and elite vision, paired with his willingness to use his powerful frame to protect the buck while he bullrushes defensemen on his way to the net. He really steps his game up when he gets angry too, so look for him to tear through Winnipeg’s zone on his way to a highlight reel goal if he gets a couple penalties he doesn’t like or if someone hits him with a cheap shot.

Jets

      Nikolaj Ehlers is back, baby! After missing 36 games due to a sports hernia, the offensive engine of the Jets has 2 goals and 5 assists in his last 3 games, bringing his season totals to 2g-8a-10pts in only 6 games of action. He’s dynamic with the puck, weaving through opponents and drawing the attention of everyone on the ice to open passing lanes before setting up his teammates for back door tap-ins. He’s got a pretty good shot of his own too, tallying 28 goals of his own in only 62 games last season. 

      Josh Morrissey is generating Norris Trophy love by exploding onto the scene under Bowness’ defensive tutelage. The do-it-all blue-liner is having a career year at age 27, blowing past his previous offensive totals in only 42 games with 8g-39a-47pts. He’s leading the team in ice time with 23:18 per game, while feeding Ehlers and the rest of the Jets’ skilled forwards with beautiful passes that usually end up in the back of the net.

      Connor Hellebuyck is having the best season of his career, and would be the Vezina frontrunner if not for the guy in Boston we’re going to talk about next. He’s 21-10-1 with a .925 save percentage and 2.41 goals against average, while saving 20.5 goals above average. He’s an absolute brick wall for Winnipeg, and he’s getting a heavy workload, starting 32 of the Jets’ 42 games this season.

Keys To The Game

      These are two veteran squads with a lot of talent at every position and experience behind the benches. They prepare well, they play responsible defense, they don’t take dumb penalties, and they can handle the pressure of sticking to their game plan if they go down by a goal or two early. Expect a competitive, clean game and enjoy the chess match of star forwards poking and prodding solid defenses until they can capitalize on an opening. 

      These squads rank in the middle third of the league in most categories, from goals scored, to goals allowed, to power play percentage. They do everything well, but not spectacularly, and don’t sacrifice discipline away from the puck to pump up their offensive numbers. They do excel in one category though, and it makes sense when you consider the defensive theme I’ve been alluding to.

      These squads are absolutely elite on the penalty kill, Pittsburgh is 3rd in the league with a success rate of 84.5%, and the Jets are right behind them at 5th with 83.19%. They own the middle of the zone when down a man, using the chemistry they’ve built after years of playing together to form a bulletproof box that can apply pressure to a power play without opening up enough to allow cross crease passes. Everyone on each kill knows where the other 3 guys are and where they need to be to keep the structure in place, and they frustrate opponents into risky “hope” plays that the PK can capitalize on for a breakaway or odd-man rush the other way. This strategy has already produced 4 short handed goals for each team, as they’ve turned a perceived disadvantage into an area of strength. 

      These squads mirror each other in most areas, they’re deep down the middle, have experienced coaches, play great defense, and don’t make many mistakes. The one area that sets them apart is in net, and the only reason for that is a recent injury to Pen’s starting goalie Tristan Jarry. Backup Casey DeSmith has done an admirable job filling in for him, but his .904 save percentage and 3.17 goals against average are no match for Hellebuyck’s elite numbers. Look for Winnipeg to test him early with plenty of screens and contact in his crease to try and push him off his game, because a weak outing for him is their best chance to put this Pens team away early. 

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins

Saturday 1/14 7:00pm Eastern

      This is the big one, two powerhouse division rivals going at it in a heavyweight battle. This is only the 2nd of 4 meetings between them this season (the Leafs won 2-1 in Toronto on November 5) but the hatred of multiple 7 game playoffs series will be on display between the tenured core players of each squad. 

      Boston is the best team in hockey and it’s not even close. They’re 32-5-4 while leading the league in goals for, goals against, penalty kill, and save percentage. They’re top 3 on the power play and top 10 in every other meaningful stat. They just suffered their first shutout and regulation home loss of the season (insane that it took 41 games) at the hands of the red hot Kraken, so they’ll be angry and ready to make up for it against their Canadian rivals. 

      Toronto is having an incredible season of their own, and would lead the Atlantic Division if it weren’t for the historic run Boston has been on since October. The Leafs are 26-10-7 and have been playing the most complete hockey we’ve seen in the Auston Matthews era. They backcheck well, they don’t turn the puck over, and they aren’t trying to force things to happen through skill alone. They’re coming off an ugly loss of their own against Detroit so expect them to match Boston’s intensity as they attempt to chip away at the juggernaut’s 9 point division lead. 

      Unfortunately, Toronto may be without the aforementioned Matthews. He did not play in Thursday’s loss to Detroit, and is listed as day to day with a wrist issue that’s been nagging him for a while. They could definitely use his offensive talent against the tightest defense and goaltending combination in the league, but rushing him back for a regular season game in January when they’ve all but secured a playoff spot wouldn’t be wise so I’m not expecting to see him in this one.

Players To Watch

Maple Leafs

      John Tavares officially opened the championship window in Toronto when he broke the hearts of Islanders fans by walking away in free agency, signing with his childhood team for 7 years at $11million per season in 2018. He gave them an elite center to plug into the second line, creating a matchup nightmare for opponents. Although Toronto hasn’t made it out of the first round since then, he’s been everything they expected and more. He’s average 31 goals per season in blue and white when factoring in his 39 goal pace this year, and has provided admirable leadership to his young teammates through some difficult times while the most soul sucking media in the NHL circled like vultures. Watch him work in front of the net, his hands are great in tight, and he always seems to find himself in soft areas where he can receive a quick pass or collect a rebound. He’ll be elevated to a bigger role if Matthews doesn’t play, logging more minutes and facing top competition from Boston, but that shouldn’t slow down a competitive, talented guy like him.

      Alex Kerfoot will be filling in for Matthews at center ice, flanked on the second line by dynamic winger William Nylander and forechecking machine Michael Bunting. He’s been in the freezer lately with no points in his last 5 games, but he’s a gamer and I expect him to make the most of this opportunity to play with some skill after being burdened with the tall task of carrying an unimpressive 3rd line all season. 

Bruins

      David Pasternak is having a quintessential contract year, increasing the hefty price Boston will have to pay to keep him at the end of the season. He’s leading the team by a mile with 32g-26a-58pts through 41 games and is on pace to shatter his previous highs in goals (48, on pace for 64) assists (47, on pace for 52) and points (95, on pace for 116). He’s dynamic in every aspect of the word and is an easy guy to root for with his jolly demeanor and gap-toothed grin. He was red hot with a 3 game goal streak in which he buried 7 to launch him back into the Rocket Richard race before Seattle’s shutout, so expect him to shoot a ton early in this one to get back into his rhythm.

      Linus Ullmark is the reason Connor Hellebuyck probably won't win the Vezina this year. He’s having the most ridiculous season I’ve ever witnessed from a goalie, leading the league in every category with an insane record of 22-2-1, a .938 save percentage, and a 1.88 goals against average, while saving an outrageous 26.3 goals above average. Toronto absolutely has to get him moving with cross-zone and high to low passing, as well as traffic in front if they want to beat him, because he’s stopping everything he faces when he’s square in the net. 

Keys To The Game

      Boston hardly has any weaknesses, so this is going to be a tall task for the Leafs. They’ve done it once already this year by playing rock solid defense and keeping the puck away from the Bruins’ playmakers in a tightly contested 2-1 home victory, but this one will be in Boston and they won’t allow another loss in their own barn easily. 

      Auston Matthews scored both goals in that win, so missing him could really hurt. The Leafs need Tavares, Nylander, and offensive leader Mitch Marner (50 points on the season) to carry the load while depth players like Kerfoot, David Kampf, and Zach Aston-Reese play to their ceiling in an effort to match up with Boston’s endless waves of offensive firepower. 

      The Bruins are the deepest team in the league with three high octane scoring trios and a fourth unit that can grind you to a pulp. The fact that former Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall is driving the third line tells you everything you need to know about this forward group, he’s only slotted in there because the top six are still lethal without him. This creates endless opportunities for the Bruins to feast upon bottom six forwards as opposing coaches scramble to figure out who they need to match their shut-down guys against. 

      The Leafs’ best chance to create offense and pull off an upset will be to take their time while attacking and possess the puck as much as possible. Boston’s team defense is incredible, they backcheck like their lives depend on it and block enough shots to frustrate even the most elite players. The only way to generate quality chances to beat Ullmark and actually get them through the Bruins’ skaters is to work the puck around their zone for an extended period of time. 

      Toronto needs to cycle the puck around the outside, playing keep away from collapsing defenders until they can wear them down enough to miss an assignment and open up a passing lane to the inside. The Bruins can easily break the puck out after blocking low danger shots and make you pay with odd man rushes, so patience is key for Toronto’s attackers. 

Thanks for checking out this week's installment of the beerly hockey NHL weekend preview! I'm aaron kinney and I'm on the Beerly Hockey Podcast found anywhere you listen to podcasts!

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