NHL Weekend Preview 03.03.23
Welcome back to the Beerly Hockey Weekend Preview!
Happy NHL Trade Deadline Day everyone! By the time you read this article, the dust will have settled on the most chaotic carousel of midseason movement I can remember in all my years of hockey fandom, and the rosters of playoff contenders will have taken shape (barring any surprise call-ups from their minor league systems).
I’m working on a more in-depth piece breaking down the plethora of moves we’ve witnessed, so keep an eye out for that in the coming days, but for now lets take a look at this weekend’s biggest games and the impact some of those additions can make on their new teams!
Edmonton Oilers vs Winnipeg Jets
Friday 3/3 9:00pm Eastern @ Winnipeg
Saturday 3/4 7:00pm Eastern @ Edmonton
The Edmonton Oilers are Stanley Cup contenders. There, I finally said it. While many have called them that for years due to their explosive offense led by two of the best players in the league, I've always subscribed to the philosophy that you can't win cups without a deep roster and the ability to keep the puck out of your own net. Year after year, the Oilers charge into the playoffs with high expectations after 82 games of outscoring their obvious problems. Year after year, they’ve been favored in nearly every game of every playoff series, and year after year I’ve rake in cash betting against them. I’m going to miss those days.
General manager Ken Holland has been adding to this roster since he arrived in the summer of 2019, and while some of those additions have helped their scoring depth (Evander Kane, Zach Hyman, Tyson Barrie) he’s never found guys who can help his team win the tight checking games that constitute playoff hockey. That all changed this season.
Holland’s biggest offseason addition came in the form of a loveable journeyman goaltender named Jack Campbell. I’ve been critical of Campbell’s play for most of the season, and while he’s still not the most consistent guy in the world, he found his form playing behind one of the worst defensive teams in the league during a recent 8 game win streak during which he posted a respectable .917 save percentage. He and 24 year old Stuart Skinner have turned into an acceptable tandem, providing the Oilers with relatively average goaltending (which is all they really need right now).
While the goaltending is marginally better, the Oilers have still been missing arguably the most important element of a contender: a competent blue line. Holland finally addressed that issue on Tuesday by acquiring reliable shut-down defenseman Mattias Ekholm from Nashville for Tyson Barrie and a package of futures thanks to the Predators’ abrupt decision to give up on the season and sell off players to restock their prospect pool.
While one player cannot single handedly fix an entire team’s defensive issues, Ekholm improves the entire blue line by slotting in next to 23 year old Evan Bouchard to give Edmonton a true shut-down pairing for the first time in the McDavid era. They can hold their own while eating big minutes against opposing top lines (as evidenced by their performance Tuesday, holding the high-flying Maple Leafs to only 2 goals). This pushes every other defenseman into a role for which they’re better suited. Barrie’s loss shouldn’t hurt this team in the slightest, as he was an absolute liability in his own end and only really provided value as the point man on the power play (a role Bouchard and Darnell Nurse have proven capable of filling in the past).
When I featured the Jets last week, they were in contention for the top spot in the Western Conference, but an extended scoring slump and sluggish defensive performances have manifested into a 4 game losing streak, dropping them down to the 2nd wildcard spot (2 points behind the Oilers). In an effort to spark their offense and wake up the team, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff joined the feeding frenzy in Nashville, plucking winger Nino Neiderreiter from the bones of the Predators’ roster.
The early results have been encouraging, as the Winnipeg offense came to life in Neiderreiter’s first game, a 6-5 shootout loss to the LA Kings, but they’ve got a tall task ahead of them with a home-and-home series against the galvanized Oilers. This weekend could give either team a huge advantage over the other in the suddenly exciting Western Conference playoff race!
Players To Watch
Oilers
Connor McDavid comes up every time I preview an Edmonton game, but it’s impossible to overstate his greatness. The best offensive player since Gretzky (he may even challenge the great one for his title of all time if he continues his current trajectory) has gone supernova lately, exceeding his own lofty standards. He’s scored
TWO GOALS in
EACH of his last
FIVE games, becoming just the 5th player in NHL history to accomplish such a feat and the 1st since Alexander Mogilny in 1993. This extends his current point streak to 8 games, racking up 10g-11a-21pts over that span. He can generate blazing speed with a single stride, has incredible hands, reads the ice like no other, and has taken his shot to a new level this season, pumping 52 goals into opponents’ nets through only 62 games.
Mattias Ekholm
may not blow you away with any flashy stickhandling or a booming shot, but he’s the kind of guy who does his best work outside of the highlight reels. He’s the latest graduate from the Nashville college of defensive excellence, joining alumni Ryan Suter, Shea Weber, and Seth Jones, all players who were traded or signed to be top defenders on new teams after coming up through the Preds’ system. He’s smart, has an efficient, active stick, and excels at gapping up against attackers entering his zone. He’s also not afraid to throw his 6’4”, 215lb frame in front of pucks, frustrating snipers with 78 blocked shots this year.
Nick Bjugstad
will make his Oilers Debut tonight after being acquired from the Arizona Coyotes yesterday. While the move to bring in Ekholm has dominated most of the conversation surrounding the Oilers, Bjukstad could be an underrated addition to Edmonton’s depth up front. He’s currently listed as the 4th line center, but can play all three forward positions and has shown the ability to produce up and down the lineup. The 13 goals he scored on a barren Coyotes roster ranks 5th on the Oilers roster, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him light the lamp in his first game of the season surrounded by competent players.
Jets
Nino Neiderreiter is a consistent middle 6 winger who does everything well. He’s scored at least 20 goals 6 times in his career and is on pace to do so again after tallying 18 in his 56 games with the Preds this season. He didn’t score in his Jets debut, but had 4 in the 3 games prior to being traded so he’s been feeling it lately. In addition to his scoring touch, he brings an element of speed that Winnipeg desperately needs, and is a quality forechecker. He’s responsible in his own end too, and can make quick, precise passes while rushing the puck up ice.
Nikolaj Ehlers missed 36 games after having sports hernia surgery in the first week of the season, but since returning he’s produced at his usual clip, tallying 19 points in 23 games of action. He’s not scoring as much as we’re used to seeing, with only 5 of those points being goals, but he’s created tons of offense by drawing defenders in before threading gorgeous passes to his teammates. He’s fallen victim to the scoring slump that’s recently plagued the entire Jets’ roster, only notching 2 points in his last 7 games, but he’s primed to explode at any moment, especially with Neiderreiter’s arrival on his opposing wing.
Kevin Stenlund
isn’t talked about much, but he’s been a solid presence in his first season in Winnipeg. He’s only produced 5 goals and 2 assists on the season, but is reliable in his own zone and an anchor on the 2nd ranked penalty kill in the league. He’s also shown occasional flashes of high end skill and the propensity to score in bunches during his time in Columbus, and he just pounded 2 past LA goaltender Pheonix Copley (one shorthanded) Tuesday. He’s also getting a look on the 2nd power play unit so keep an eye on him, he just might be in for another big performance with this increased opportunity.
Keys To The Games
The big name additions garner a lot of attention, deservedly so. I’m expecting Ekholm to follow up his Oilers debut with another impressive performance, and Bjugstad should be fired up for his first game with a contending team. Neiderreiter has had a game to get acclimated to Winnipeg’s playing style, and he’ll be hungry to make an impact after being held off the scoresheet in his Jets debut, and his team will need him to in order to replicate Tuesday’s offensive awakening.
Before exploding for 5 against the Kings, Winnipeg had scored only 20 goals in their last 10 contests, an average of 2 per game. There is absolutely no universe in which that would be enough to beat this Edmonton team once, let alone twice in two nights, so they had better hope the scoring punch from earlier this week is here to stay.
Outside of each team’s deadline additions, the primary focus for these games will be a special teams battle for the ages. Edmonton’s power play is almost automatic, scoring at an absurd 31.78% rate. While they lost their point man in Barrie, the real drivers of this unit are the two highest scoring players in the league this season: McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. You could almost throw the Beerly Hockey Podcast crew of me, Nate and Phil out there with those two and they’d still have the best power play in the league.
Thankfully, McDavid and Draisaitl will be joined not by us 3 pigeons, but by their regular running mates of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and Evan Bouchard (who replaces Barrie up top and has previously been successful in that position), because they are going up against the 2nd best penalty kill in the league. The Jets’ PK survives 84.48% of man advantages, trailing only the juggernaut that is Boston. They are extremely structured, rarely allowing themselves to be spread out of position, and opportunistically aggressive, pouncing on anyone who dares mishandle a pass or fumble the puck at the blue line. If they can hold the Oilers’ PP off the scoresheet (or better yet, score a short handed goal) they’ll give their team a huge advantage because Edmonton is not nearly as good 5 on 5.
My final thought on this back to back series is the importance of adjustments. It’s not often you get two consecutive cracks at a team you’re battling in the standings, so this is a huge opportunity for a potential 4 point swing between these squads, and their coaches know it. Depending on what they see in tonight's game, each coaching staff should have a list of areas for their players to target in order to gain an advantage in tomorrow’s rematch. Whether it’s a specific breakout play the other team runs where they think their forecheckers can jump in a passing lane, a defenseman who struggles to turn a certain way while gapping up against the rush, or any other minute detail they can hammer into their players, each coaching staff will comb through the film late into the night to find it. Whatever happens in the first game, expect some changes in the second one.
New Jersey Devils @ Vegas Golden Knights
Friday 3/3 10:00pm Eastern
To quote my good buddy Phil Rasor, “Give me fuel, give me fire, give me TIMO FUCKING MEIER!”
The Devils landed arguably the most valuable player at the deadline this year, and he’s going to look incredible in New Jersey. He brings an element of size and power they’ve been missing, and if Lindy Ruff is smart he’ll use him to add new dimensions to the Devils’ offensive zone schemes.
New Jersey has had an incredible season, thanks to a record of 40-15-5 for 85 standings points, they’re 2nd in the Metropolitan Division and 3rd in the entire league, trailing Carolina by a single point (and Boston by 16, but nobody is going to catch them).
The Devils are fast, flashy, high flying fun, and they score a ton of goals, but most of that offense is generated off the rush starting with set breakout plays or neutral zone turnovers. Come playoff time, they’re going to be facing heavy, defensively responsible teams with aggressive forechecks, which means their defensemen will have less time and space to break the puck out and those quick strike chances they’re generating from turnovers will be few and far between. That’s where a guy like Meier, along with their other deadline addition, gritty depth forward Curtis Lazar, can help.
While I don’t expect Ruff to overhaul the way his team attacks (it’s been incredibly successful throughout the regular season) he now has a guy in Meier who can create goals from anywhere on the ice in any style of game. In addition to scoring off the rush, Meier can win board battles to feed a cycle, deflect shots on net from the slot, create turnovers on the forecheck, and battle in front of the net to screen goaltenders or hammer home rebounds. He can make the pretty plays New Jersey loves, but he can also bury the ugly ones that decide playoff games when opposing teams tighten up.
Meier’s debut in Vegas should serve as a measuring stick for both teams, as the Golden Knights are locked in a three team battle for the top spot in the Western Conference. They’re 36-19-6 for 78 points, tied with LA and one point back of Dallas. They just beat Carolina 3-2 with the tight checking style we’ll see once the playoffs start, and they want to win this one badly for a chance to pass the Stars in the race for the number one seed.
The Knights have made a few deadline moves of their own, mostly necessitated by injuries, but even with their top 3 goaltenders and their best forward (Mark Stone) on injured reserve, they’ve managed to rattle off a record of 7-1-2 in their last 10 games. The players they’ve brought in are only going to add more juice to a frightening lineup, with menacing winger Ivan Barbashev bringing physicality and scoring touch from St Louis and aging star goaltender Jonathan Quick looking for a revenge tour between the pipes before hanging up his skates and waiting for his Hall of Fame call.
Players To Watch
Devils
Timo Meier
is unfortunately questionable for tonight’s game, as he’s just been cleared for contact from a minor upper body injury. I have to include him here though because if he plays, you’re not going to want to miss his debut. He’s a bull in a china shop with hands that could catch the merchandise before it hits the floor. His offensive instincts, ability to drag defenders on his back to the net while protecting the puck, willingness to battle for rebounds once he gets there, and inter-continental ballistic missile of a shot have produced 31 goals and 21 assists for 52 points in his 57 games with the tanking Sharks this season. I can’t wait to see what this guy does with the skilled players in New Jersey’s lineup.
Jack Hughes
is the MVP of this team so far. The 21 year old American center is a magician with the puck on his stick, and is incredibly elusive thanks to a lifetime of avoiding physical defenders licking their chops for the chance to crush his 5’11”, 175lb frame. He just had a 3 game, 5 point streak snapped against the Colorado Avalanche so he’ll be itching to get back on the scoresheet.
Dougie Hamilton
is a weapon on the power play and a breakout machine, regularly feeding all those rush opportunities I previously mentioned. Among defensemen, his 18 goals are only one short of league leader Erik Karlsson, and his 58 rank 4th. He’s not a stalwart when it comes to shutting down attackers in his own zone, but that doesn’t really matter when he never gives them the opportunity to touch the puck in the first place, as evidenced by his 59.9% Corsi-for rating.
Golden Knights
Ivan Barbashev joins Vegas with a Stanley Cup pedigree and embodies the culture of the 2019 Blues team with which he won it. He’s big, physical, and skilled enough to capitalize on his chances when paired with talented linemates, and while he’s no Mark Stone, he’s looked pretty damn good in two games filling in for him flanking the next guy we’re going to talk about on the Knights’ top line.
Jack Eichel
is clearly healthy again, producing the way we all know he can and firing pucks toward the net like his life depends on it. He’s pounded an eye popping 35 shots on goal in his last 9 games, converting on 7 of them and adding 4 assists to give him 11 points over that span.
Shea Theodore
has stabilized Vegas’ blue line, contributing 2g-9a-11pts in 12 games after missing nearly 2 months with a leg injury. He’s a dynamic skater and an excellent setup man, regularly finding teammates with improbable passes from the point. He’s no slouch in his own zone either, using efficient stick checks to pester attacking forwards and intercept dangerous passes.
Keys To The Game
Unfortunately, we aren’t going to see the greatest American goalie of all time in this game (unless New Jersey pumps some bad goals past Adin Hill early). It’s not really a surprise, as goalies normally take a while to get acclimated to a new team and Vegas is probably doing him a favor by saving his debut for a softer opponent, but I’m disappointed nonetheless. Keep an eye on Vegas’ upcoming schedule and be sure to tune in for his first start, because I have a feeling he’ll come out with a vengeance after the team he back stopped to two cups kicked him to the curb for some cap space.
This is going to be a stylistic battle, first and foremost. Vegas is big, physical, and plays a grinding style of game that wears you out until you start making mistakes upon which they then capitalize. New Jersey, as previously mentioned, is all about speed and skill. Whichever team can force the other to play their style is going to have the advantage in this one, so sit back and enjoy this cross conference showdown between contenders.
New York Rangers @ Boston Bruins
Saturday 3/4 1:00pm Eastern
It’s finally showtime on Broadway! The long rumored reunion between Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin finally took place, and the results were… disappointing. Chicago traded Kane to the Rangers earlier this week and he made his debut on a line with his old running mate last night against Ottawa. They created plenty of chances, but the suddenly red-hot Senators and some spectacular saves by goalie Cam Talbot kept them both off the scoresheet. They were so excited to play together that at times it looked like they were forcing the puck to each other instead of looking for other options, but they should round into form now that they got the first game out of the way.
For the Rangers’ sake, that had better start Saturday, as they take on the cream of the crop in Boston. Not only do the Bruins lead the league in nearly every statistical category (they’ve got the best record in the NHL and lead 2nd place Carolina by a mile in the standings), they just got even better by adding huge pieces at the deadline. Dimitry Orlov, Garnet Hathaway, and Tyler Bertuzzi all join a star studded roster that looks damn near unbeatable when healthy. Hell, even at the beginning of the season when they were missing half their stars they were winning at a historic rate.
The rangers haven’t quite played up to their potential lately, which is understandable considering how many new pieces they’re trying to acclimate into their lineup. In addition to Kane, the Rangers have recently traded for Vladimir Tarasenko and Niko Mikkola, and have been moving depth players in and out of the lineup in order to cultivate the cap space required to bring in the former Blackhawk star. They’ve also been without young stud defenseman K’Andre Miller as he was issued a 3 game suspension following an unsightly incident with Kings Defenseman Drew Doughty.
Despite all that, New York is 35-18-9 with 79 points, and they’re comfortably in 3rd place in the Metropolitan Division. Tarasenko and Mikkola look more comfortable by the day, and the Bruins they face Saturday will be without key players in Taylor Hall and Nick Foligno. This is going to be a titanic clash.
Players To Watch
Rangers
Patrick Kane is a surefire lock for the hall of fame whenever he decides to hang up the skates. The dynamic winger helped lead Chicago to 3 cups in 5 years, and then went on to win the Hart Trophy as league MVP in 2015-16 by piling up 46g-60a-106pts thanks to the instant chemistry he found with an undrafted rookie from Russia. That guy was none other than Artemi Panarin, who won the Calder as rookie of the year with 30g-47a-77pts. The duo played together for one more spectacular season, regularly finding each other with miraculous cross ice feeds and blind passes thanks to a 6th sense of each other’s whereabouts before Panarin was unceremoniously dealt to Columbus to save cap space. Ever since then, an eventual reunion has been rumored but it finally came to fruition this year, and while Kane may take a little while to acclimate to the Rangers’ systems, the two have already shown flashes of their previous chemistry.
Vladimir Tarasenko was the first big name winger to join what was already a loaded top 6, and while he scored in his first game as a Ranger, he looked a little lost sometimes in their offensive scheme. He seems to have finally figured it out though, and looks comfortable on the top line with Mika Zebanejad and Chris Kreider. He exploded for a goal and 2 assists Thursday night against Philadelphia, beating Carter Hart with a gorgeous wrist shot in overtime, and scored an even prettier goal with a Forsberg backhand move on a breakaway against Ottawa the next night. Look for him to extend his streak to 3 in this big time matchup against the best team in the league.
Bruins
Dmitry Orlov has been on a heater since his second game in Boston. He’s on a 3 game point streak, piling up 3g-5a-8pts and making the Bruins blue line even scarier than it already was. He’s never been known as an offensive defenseman, so who knows how long this will last, but maybe the change of scenery has awoken something deep inside him.
Garnet Hathaway
is the perfect bottom 6 wing. He’s a tremendous pain to play against, slashing and crosschecking his way around the ice and mixing it up in scrums after the whistle. He’s also skilled enough to chip in offensively, already contributing 2 assists in his 4 games with Boston.
Tyler Bertuzzi
wasn’t expected to move this year, as Detroit was in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, but a 1st round pick was too tempting for Steve Yzrman to resist and he shipped the big winger over to Boston. He should make his debut in this one, and he lives for the big moments so I’m expecting a big performance out of him. He was hampered by injuries earlier this year and missed a ton of games, so his numbers aren’t really worth mentioning, but he scored 30 goals on a bad Red Wings team last year so he’s got a ton of offensive talent, and he’s not afraid to throw his big frame around.
Keys To The Game
The Bruins are the clear favorite based on the season so far, but with all these new pieces and players out of the lineup, it’s hard to predict what will happen in this one. If New York plays to their ability, they can beat anyone on any given night in a variety of different ways, but it all depends on how well the pieces they brought in mesh with each other.
I’m calling this one a clear toss up, and will be watching to see how Kane, Tarasenko, Mikkola, Bertuzzi, Orlov, and Hathaway step up for their new squads in one of the most anticipated games of the year.
Thanks for checking out this week's installment of the beerly hockey NHL weekend preview! I'm aaron kinney and I'm on the Beerly Hockey Podcast found anywhere you listen to podcasts!
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Make sure to Come back next week!
