NHL Weekend Preview 12.16.2022
St. Louis Blues vs Calgary Flames
Friday 12/16 9:00 @Calgary
I may have cursed the Flames with last weekend’s feature, declaring they “have no excuse for leaving Columbus without picking up two points”. Well, they appeared to overlook the motivation of a Jackets team hungry to erase the memory of their pathetic Wednesday night performance against Buffalo. Johnny Hockey didn’t put up any points against his former team, but Patrik Laine beat Markstrom just 1:02 into the first period to give Columbus the lead and Calgary spent the rest of the game chasing in an eventual 3-1 loss. While the result was ugly, Jacob Markstrom looked much more comfortable than he has most of the year, yielding only one more goal to an Eric Robinson Breakaway before leaving the ice for an extra attacker, allowing Columbus to bury one into the empty net.
The Flames were able to salvage two points from the road trip by matching the Maple Leafs’ offensive firepower in a wildly entertaining 5-4 overtime loss, and rode an outstanding 37 save performance from Markstrom into a shootout against Montreal before falling 2-1 thanks to the skills competition. The two strong outings proved to be enough for Markstrom to earn the starters net at home against Vancouver, but all the confidence he gained on the east coast apparently evaporated once he entered the Saddledome. He looked shaky all night, as rebounds trampolined off him into dangerous areas and he yielded 3 goals on only 27 shots before falling in the shootout once again. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Darryl Sutter goes back to Vladar for this critical matchup against a Blues team that’s trying to chase down the wild card spot his team has flirted with all season.
The Blues are dealing with questions of their own in net, as Jordan Binnington continues his infuriatingly inconsistent pattern of looking like a world beater one game and turning back into a pumpkin the next. His Stanley Cup pedigree and strong performance in last year’s playoffs paired with an impending cap crunch convinced GM Doug Armstrong to hand him back the starting job by trading up-and-comer Ville Husso to Detroit for some magic beans rather than finding room under the salary cap to re-sign him. This season the bad has dramatically outweighed the good, as he carries a record of 11-11-1 into Friday’s game while sporting an ugly .894 save percentage and allowing an average of 3.21 goals per game. The team’s defensive play hasn’t helped him much (St. Louis has the 2nd highest expected goals against in the league with 70.5, trailing only the bottom feeding Ducks) but Binnington’s goals saved above average number of -7.8 shows us that his struggles are his own. I never like to judge personnel decisions before giving them a couple seasons to play out, but this one’s not looking great for Armstrong as Husso tears it up in Detroit with his 11-5-4, .918 save percentage, and 2.48 goals against average while saving 7.7 goals above average. That’s more than a 15 goal swing when compared to Binnington’s total, and could have really helped the Blues in some of these close games.
The inconsistency in St. Louis goes far beyond the goal crease, as the Blues have been riding a hellish roller coaster since the puck dropped on October 15th to start the season with a 5-2 win over Columbus. They finished climbing the first hill by winning the next two games before plummeting into an 8 game losing streak, followed by an impressive 7 game ascent in which they were undefeated. That appears to be the peak of the ride so far, the following 11 contests have been a corkscrew down the track as they’ve gone 4-7-1, plunging them 3 points below the playoff line with 3 teams to pass if they want back in the race. Lucky for them, they get a shot at one of those bubble teams tonight when they march into the Saddledome, and this is a proud veteran team that won’t just lay down and quit on the season. They’re also coming off a big shootout win in Edmonton in which they held the high octane Oilers offense to only 27 shots on goal. This gives them back to back wins for the first time since their 7 game streak (they shut out the offensively anemic Predators on Tuesday) so maybe they can build some momentum from improved defensive play and go on another run. The stakes are high in this game for both squads, and they’re coached by two of the most intimidating old-school bench bosses in the game so expect some fireworks in this one.
Players To Watch
Flames
Noah Hanifin has seen more ice time this season than ever before, averaging a career high 22:28 per game. He recorded an assist in Columbus and scored twice against Toronto last weekend before being held off the score sheet by Montreal and Vancouver, but that wasn’t for lack of effort. He had two grade-A scoring chances from the slot Wednesday night against the Canucks that should have been goals had he received better passes. He’s looked dangerous in the offensive zone all season, but his defense could use some work (as could most of the Flames D-men). Look for goals to happen when he’s on the ice, whether they’re scored by his team or the Blues.
Tyler Toffoli is on pace to crack 20 goals for the third year in a row, and is a key cog in Calgary’s new look top line flanking Elias Lindholm and Jonathan Huberdeau as well as the top Powerplay unit. The ex King was reunited with Darryl Sutter after a mid-season trade from Montreal last year, and the grizzled veteran coach loves to lean on him in key situations. Toffoli is a big game player, and can score clutch goals when his team is down late or needs a winner in overtime.
Adam Ruzicka didn’t get into the lineup until November 1st, but hasn’t let Sutter find a reason to sit him out since, potting 6 goals and 11 helpers in only 20 games of action. Many fans questioned the coach’s decision to keep him on the shelf for the first 10 games of the season, and the 23 year old 4th round pick has proven them right. He’s found a home playing to the left of Mikael Backlund on the third line, and has given the 2nd power play unit some life with 2 goals and 3 assists on the man advantage.
players to watch
Blues
Keep an eye on Ryan O’Reilly, who’s finally finding his form after starting the season colder than a silver bullet when the mountains are blue. The captain and 2019 Conn Smythe winner had only a single point in his first 10 games (a powerplay goal against the porous Oilers) but has looked much more like himself since early November. He has 8 goals and 6 assists in 20 games since busting out of his slump, and is once again playing with the tenacious energy we’ve come to expect from him.
I ripped Jordan Binnington to shreds earlier, but even though his numbers this year haven’t been pretty, he’s had long stretches of elite play in the past and there’s no reason to think he can’t return to that form. He’s had 6 games this season with a save percentage above .930 including 2 shutouts, but those have been accompanied by 10 games with a sub-.900 save percentage. You never know which extreme you’re going to get until the puck drops, but it’s usually pretty easy to tell once he’s tested a few times. When playing well, Binnington looks calm and controlled in his net. He anticipates plays and lets the puck come to him, rarely giving up rebounds. When he’s off his game he looks like a circus performer, or perhaps a strung out carnie. He chases plays rather than anticipating them and rarely looks set when shots are released, relying on his reflexes rather than his reads. All this excess movement allows pucks to squeak through him rather than being swallowed up, and when he does make a save the rebound usually ends up right in the middle of the slot or on the stick of an opposing player. He plays with a ton of fire, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing when it’s focused on stopping the puck, but he’s known to fly off the handle when having a bad game and there are plenty of times he’s cost his team by swinging his stick at opposing players like it’s Paul Bunyan’s ax and taking stupid penalties.
Keys To The Game
Goaltending is going to play a huge role in this game, but it’s also a massive wildcard. Without knowing which version of Binnington will show up or who gets the start for Calgary, you might as well throw any predictions out the window. What is easy to predict, is what will happen if the Blues lose their composure and get into penalty trouble. They have the 31st ranked penalty kill in the league at 67.69%, barely edging Anaheim (66.98%) to keep them out of last place and they’ve allowed 8 man-advantage goals in their last 8 games. The Flames’ power play has converted at 20.39% this season, good for 23rd in the league and nothing to write home about, but they’ve been red hot as of late scoring 7 power play goals in their last 6 contests. Needless to say, Craig Berube will be emphasizing the importance of discipline in the pregame meetings.
San Jose Sharks vs Los Angeles Kings
Saturday 12/17 10:30 @ Los Angeles
At one point this was in contention for the most heated rivalry in the league, with both squads boasting loaded rosters and stanley cup aspirations for large stretches between 2010 and 2019. During that span they met in the playoffs 4 times with each team winning twice in some of the most violent and competitive playoff series the league has ever seen, highlighted by LA becoming only the 4th team to ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in 2014 before going on to win the cup. While the Kings tasted champagne from Lord Stanley twice, San Jose never made it over the hump, peaking in 2016 with a 6 game loss to Pittsburgh in the cup final.
These clubs are no longer threatening for championships: LA is emerging from a rebuild and trying to hang on to 2nd place in the weak Pacific Division, while the Sharks are staring down the barrel of a painful rebuild of their own and would love nothing more than to hinder their cross-state rival’s chances of a second consecutive playoff berth. This game is the second of 3 meetings between the squads this season, and should have a big game feel even though the result won’t mean much for San Jose’s positioning in the standings.
Players To Watch
Sharks
It’s been the Erik Karlsson show in the Bay Area this year, the aging superstar is putting together a renaissance season and looks as good as he did during his elite years in Ottawa. He leads the Sharks in points (38) and assists (26), and he’s third on the team in goal scoring (12) behind Timo Meier and captain Logan Couture. Karlsson is the offensive engine of this team, recording a point on 40% of San Jose’s goals this season, and has firmly reminded the hockey world what he can do when he’s healthy. He’s still a defensive liability, struggling to maintain a healthy gap when faced with the task of defending the rush and tripping over himself while pivoting to push attacking forwards to the outside, but his offensive contributions more than make up for these faults. He’s extremely exciting to watch so soak it in before his age and health rob us of his glory.
Logan Couture is the heart and soul of the Sharks, and has played a major role for them throughout the development of this rivalry. He had 2 goals and 3 assists as a rookie in their first playoff series, a first round tilt in 2011 which San Jose won in 6 games. He’s seen hall of fame teammates come and go, and watched the captaincy passed from Rob Blake, to Joe Thornton, to Joe Pavelski, before donning the C himself, and he’s continuing to lead by example with 14 goals and 12 assists on the season. He plays major roles on the top power play and penalty kill units while centering the top line, truly a 5 tool player, and he’s not afraid to drop the mitts to defend his teammates as we saw him go captain v captain with Jamie Benn earlier this season.
Timo Meier is an absolute unicorn, a 6 foot, 210lb power forward who drives to the net like a bull in a china shop with the hands to finish in tight and a missile of a shot that allows him to score from distance when the opportunity presents itself. These abilities allow him to create his own chances and capitalize on them, but he’s also displayed great vision and the finesse to dish the puck to wide open teammates when defenders overcommit to him. He put this extensive toolkit to work last season, recording career highs in goals (35), assists (41), and points (76) and he has the potential to top those numbers this year if he stays healthy. He’s tied with Couture for the team lead with 14 goals and he’s got 3 points in his last 3 games. Oh, and did I mention he’s only 26 years old?
Players to watch
Kings
Kevin Fiala has been as advertised, scoring at over a point per game pace with 9 goals and 25 helpers through 33 contests in his sunny new home. The Kings have to be pleased with his play, especially considering the assets they gave up to get his negotiating rights from Minnisota and the 7 year $55.125 million contract they signed him to. His creativity allows him to generate offense off the rush better than any other player on the Kings roster, an element they've been missing since Marion Gaborik retired.
Drew Doughty is everything to the Kings that Couture is to the Sharks. He's been the anchor of their blue line for the past decade, plays on both special teams units, and is a leader on and off the ice. He’s scored only once this season but has 17 assists to lead the Kings D corps in scoring with 18 points. He’s also incredibly difficult to beat in his own end, breaking up rushes with his stick and using his large frame to keep attacking forwards out of prime scoring areas.
Jonathan Quick will be in the conversation for greatest American goaltender of all time. He's having a down year as he closes out the back nine of his career, but he will undoubtedly get up for this game. He's the most entertaining goalie I've seen live, playing a hybrid technique somewhere between today's technical butterfly and the acrobatic stand-up style that dominated the 80's and 90's. He's never out of a play, consistently sliding across the blue paint in full splits to erase cross-ice passes and diving or stacking the pads to rob elite shooters when all hope seems lost. He won the Conn Smythe while setting a playoff record for goals against average through 4 rounds in 2012, backstopping the Kings to their first cup when they snuck into the dance as an 8 seed. He also plays with a lot of fire, never afraid to jump into scrums around the net or start them himself with a few hacks of his paddle or jabs of his blocker. This game means a lot to him as he tries to steady a young LA team for a chance at one final cup run.
Keys To The Game
A strong start is always important, but that has proven especially true for San Jose this year. They’ve scored the first goal in 7 of their 10 wins, and this group seems to feed off the momentum of an early lead. They play sharp, confident hockey with crisp passing, smart reads, and controlled breakouts. When they give up the first goal, they start to chase the game and make clumsy errors which feed cycle-heavy teams like LA. San Jose needs to make simple, clean plays to break the Kings’ forecheck and exit their zone to allow their offensive stars to work. If their young defense succumbs to pressure and coughs up the puck in their own end, it could be a long night for the boys in teal.
There are quite a few new faces in this rivalry, guys like Quinton Byfield, Mikey Anderson, Noah Gregor, and Jacob Megna all want to make their presence known. Look for one of them to stand out by scoring a big goal or laying a bone crushing hit to put their stamp on this game.
Carolina Hurricanes
Saturday 12/17 7:00(EST) Home vs Dallas Stars
Sunday 12/18 5:00(EST) Home vs Pittsburgh Penguins
The preseason favorite to win the Metro and contend for the Eastern Conference, the Hurricanes are surprisingly tied for 2nd in their division due to the meteoric rise of New Jersey and a scorching hot run by the Penguins. The Canes have a respectable record and continue to suffocate opponents with Rod Brind’Amore’s high pressure system, but injuries have made it difficult to replicate their strong possession metrics from previous seasons. Sebastian Aho has missed the last few games with a lower body injury, joining a crowded injured reserve list including Jesper Fast, Ondrej Kase, starting goaltender Fredderik Andersen, and offseason addition Max Pacioretty who hasn’t dressed for a game since being traded from Vegas. Paired with the offseason departures of Vince Trochek and Nino Niederreiter, these absences have taken a devastating bite out of Carolina’s forward depth, which was once considered their greatest strength.
The Canes head into the weekend with a daunting schedule, facing Central Division powerhouse Dallas Saturday night with less than 24 hours before matching up against a Pittsburgh team that can’t seem to lose right now. Sunday’s contest is critical considering the Canes and Pens are tied at 40 points each, so Carolina desperately wants to win in regulation to create some separation. With the Rangers and Islanders also hot on their heels, Carolina will be throwing everything they have at this back to back slate to bank some points and use these games as a measuring stick against some of the league’s best.
Players to Watch
Rookie goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov has been a godsend for Carolina with Andersen and backup Anti Raanta missing time through the first 3rd of the season. He’s 6-1-4 since Freddy went down and hasn’t lost in regulation in his last 6 starts. He carries a .923 save percentage and 2.01 goals against average while saving 5.8 goals above average on the season, numbers impressive enough for the front office to lock him up for the next 4 years at $2 million per season despite his small sample size.
Paul Stastny, originally signed as a depth center for his experience and leadership skills, has been given the task of filling Aho’s shoes on the top line between Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas. He’s stepped up to the plate admirably, tallying a goal and an assist since his promotion, and his ability to continue that production will be key to matching up with the all-star team of centermen that will parade into town this weekend.
Andrei Svechnikov is Carolina’s most dangerous offensive gun. He leads the team with 16 goals including 3 on the powerplay, but his strong possession numbers are arguably even more important to the Canes as they try to quell the 4th (Dallas: 3.66 goals per game) and 8th (Pittsburgh: 3.48 goals per game) most potent offenses in the league. He boasts a Corsi for percentage of 66.5% and a Fenwik for percentage of 66.1%.
Brent Burns has been an unbelievable upgrade from Tony Deangelo, providing the perfect offensive compliment to Jacob Slavin’s elite shut-down skills on the Cane’s top pairing. He’s far more responsible with the puck than dearly departed Tony, driving possession at a 65.3% Corsi rate while tallying 4 goals and 16 assists for 20 points. 9 of those points have been a result of his elite powerplay skills, developed from years of experience running the point on San Jose’s lethal top unit. He’s got an electric shot that finds its way through traffic at an alarming rate, and he’s a physical presence, unafraid to run over unsuspecting attackers like a freight train.
Keys To The Games
Expect a low scoring affair Saturday night against Dallas. While the Stars boast the 4th best offense in the league, many of their goals have come against porous Western Conference defenses. Their last 4 games have been against tougher Eastern Conference competition, and they’ve averaged only 2 goals per game during that stretch. Against Carolina’s tight defensive structure and quality goaltending, I don’t expect Dallas to have the time or space to make pretty passes and will have to rely upon broken plays and rebounds for any offensive chances they hope to generate. Unfortunately for the Canes, Pete Deboer’s teams have historically excelled at capitalizing on these types of chances so Jacob Slavin and company will need to be laser focused on clearing the crease and cleaning up loose pucks in front of their own net. Look for some heated scrums in Carolina’s blue paint because that’s where this game is going to be decided.
At the other end of the ice, Svechnikov and company will have their work cut out for them as they try to find cracks in the brick wall that is Jake Ottinger. The Dallas goaltender is earning every penny of the 3 year $12 million contract extension he signed before the start of the season. He’s 12-4-3 on the season with a .920 save percentage, 2.42 goals against average, and has saved an insane 9.3 goals above average. While his save percentage has fallen a few points from his eye popping early season numbers, his value to this Dallas squad is impossible to overstate as he’s bailed them out from brutal defensive breakdowns countless times this season. Carolina will need to generate numerous grade A scoring opportunities to beat him, and without Aho’s playmaking skills that could be a challenge.
Of course all this talk of a low scoring affair could be crumpled up and thrown into the nearest trash can by the Stars’ lethal top line of ageless wonder Joe Pavelski, two way center extraordinaire Rupe Hintz, and absolute game wrecker Jason Robertson. This trio has dragged Dallas from the jaws of defeat all season long, and when they get rolling it seems impossible to stop them. Look for Rod Brind’Amore to take advantage of having last change on home ice, he’ll most likely be throwing captain Jordan Stall and his checking line over the boards every time these guys touch the ice. They’ll be tasked with the monumental challenge of suffocating them with pressure to prevent them from finding their rhythm.
The Penguins are on the heater of all heaters, but the Canes may have luck on their side Sunday as future hall of famer Evgeni Malkin left last night’s game in Florida after taking a shot/pass from Crosby off his surgically repaired right knee (the puck deflected into the net to give Malkin his 10th goal of the season, that’s how much the hockey gods are smiling on Pittsburgh right). Malkin did not return to the ice but was spotted in the tunnel with an ice bag on his knee and post-game interviews indicate the injury is not believed to be serious, but if he doesn’t return to the lineup by Sunday’s matchup there will be a gaping hole at center ice that Carolina should try to expose.
Jeff Carter is the obvious candidate to slot in at 2C if Gino can’t play, and while he’s had an illustrious career, he simply can’t match the big Russian’s production. This allows Carolina to throw everything they have at Crosby’s line in hopes of keeping him quiet, while hoping depth players like Seth Jarvis and Jesperi Kotkaniemi can outscore Pittsburgh’s recently shuffled bottom 6.
The Pens have won every game since last week’s preview, pushing their streak to 7 games for a 12-1-1 record in their last 14. Malkin and Crosby have played major roles in that success, but arguably the most important factor has been the elite play of Tristan Jarry. He’s started 11 of those 12 games to the tune of 10-0-1 with a .937 save percentage and 1.91 goals against average, bringing his season averages to .922 and 2.63. Carolina cannot afford to give up more than 1 or 2 goals in this game because putting 3 behind this guy looks nearly impossible right now.
The Canes are coming off an impressive 3-2 win over Seattle, limiting the Kraken to only 17 shots while pumping 39 of their own towards Phillip Grubauer. They’ve won 3 in a row now without Aho, a testament to their tenacious identity and capable depth players. If they can somehow sweep this back to back slate of contenders, I’m ready to declare them completely back in the championship conversation. If they fall on their face, it could be an uphill battle to escape the buzzsaw of ravenous Eastern Conference teams gunning for their playoff spot.
Thanks for checking out this week's installment of the beerly hockey NHL weekend preview! I'm aaron kinney and I'm on the Beerly Hockey Podcast found anywhere you listen to podcasts!
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All the stats in this article are courtesy of Hockey Reference, they’re an incredible resource and I wouldn’t be able to put these articles together without them!
