NHL Weekend Preview 12.10.22

Welcome to the Beerly Hockey Weekend Preview, a weekly spotlight featuring a handful of teams to watch while gassing brews with the guys (or gals). We’ve passed the quarter mark of the season, so the NHL standings are beginning to mean something. Contenders are going to start jockeying for division titles and playoff seeding while slumping teams are running out time to right the ship and rejoin the race. Every Friday I’ll highlight a few teams that have big games over the weekend, breaking down their matchups, players to watch, and what the coming days could mean for their season. This week features a home and home series in the Eastern Conference that could boil over into a line brawl, an underperforming preseason favorite from the Pacific that’s beginning to find their form, and an afternoon showdown in the sunshine state.

Penguins VS. Sabres

Friday 12/9 7:00 @Buffalo

Saturday 12/10 7:00 @Pittsburgh

These teams put on an absolute show on November 2nd in their first meeting of the season, featuring a parade to the penalty box, a multi-goal comeback, a fan scaring the shit out of Mike Sullivan, and a yard sale at the final horn as the Pens tried to start a brawl to ease the embarrassment of getting shit pumped after blowing a 2 goal lead in the 3rd period. Buffalo won that game in a 6-3 blowout scoring 5 times in the 3rd period, and I’ve been excited about this weekend series ever since, so much so that I planned a trip with a buddy from Pittsburgh to watch Saturday night’s tilt in person. You do not want to miss these games. 

The Penguins are rolling right now, they’ve won 3 in a row and are 8-1-1 in their last 10. They currently sit 3rd in the crowded Metro Division, trailing Carolina by 2 standing points with 32. They ride into Buffalo Friday night in pursuit of revenge and a little breathing room in the easter conference standings, with the Islanders, Lightning, and Rangers within one point of overtaking them. This team has done a great job of defending by committee in the absence of Kris Letang, who’s been out since November 28th due to a stroke. The star forwards, led by ultimate winner Sidney Crosby, have stepped up their offensive production and are back-checking like rabid dogs to help their depleted D corps.

Buffalo’s season has been a roller coaster, they looked like world beaters for the first month before an 8 game losing streak plunged them into the league’s basement. They finally snapped the skid with a 7-2 pounding of Montreal and have looked much better since, going 5-4-1 in their last 10 games and scoring 46 goals in that span. While the offensive outburst is impressive, many of those games were blowouts against bottom feeding teams, highlighted by embarrassing the Blue Jackets 9-4 in their own barn. This series with the Pens should tell us a lot about what to expect from Buffalo going forward, it will be the toughest competition they’ve faced in a while. If they can keep the offense firing on all cylinders and get at least three points from these two games, the Sabres may have a chance to claw back into the playoff race. They currently sit 6 points back of Tampa Bay for the 2nd wild card spot in the east, but need to jump 4 good teams ahead of them to have a shot at it.

Players To Watch

Pittsburgh Penguins

Sidney Crosby is tearing it up, riding a six game point streak consisting of 5 goals and 3 assists. He’s having a vintage season, already potting 15 goals and 20 assists in 26 games. He’s on pace to finish with 110 points, which would be the second highest total of his career.

Jake Guentzel has a 5 game streak of his own in which he’s racked up 2 goals and 6 assists. He’s up to 26 points on the season and looks like he’s turned it up a notch since Letang has been out.

Bryan Rust is coming off back to back multi-point performances, racking up 2 goals and 4 assists to drive Pittsburgh’s 2nd line.

Players To Watch

Buffalo Sabres

It’s been the Tage Thompson show all season, but he’s been otherworldly as of late. He has 21 goals and 19 assists for 40 points on the year, with 18 of those coming in the last 10 games. He’s coming off a historic night, pumping 5 past the poor Columbus goaltenders on national television Wednesday night and adding an assist to boot. 

Jeff Skinner has found his form too, with 6 goals and 10 assists in his last 10 games. He’s clearly thriving under head coach Don Granato, who has put him in a far better position to succeed than the previous regime.

Rookie Jack Quinn has found a home on the second line, finally realizing his offensive potential after a slow start to the season. Since returning from injury against Toronto November 19th, he’s potted 5 goals and 5 assists in 9 games while dominating possession with a Corsi for percentage of 56.3%.

Keys To The Game

These tilts are all about special teams. Buffalo has the 3rd ranked power play in the NHL, clicking at 29%. Impressive as those numbers are, it’s been even better in the last 10 games, with the Sabres making opponents pay on 15 of 41 penalties in that span, an eye popping 36% conversion rate. Pittsburgh’s penalty kill is respectable, it’s ranked 7th in the league at 81.71%, but it will be put to the test against the Sabre’s deadly top unit with Thompson one-timing missiles from the top of the left circle. The Pens need to stay out of the box if they want to avoid a repeat of November 2nd.

Pittsburgh’s powerplay is the polar opposite of Buffalo, it’s been below average all season but over the past 10 games it’s been absolutely lifeless. The Pens have managed to score only twice on 82 opportunities during that span, an 8% clip that’s sunk their season average to 18.39%, 26th in the league. Lucky for them, Buffalo’s penalty kill is ranked one spot lower at 27th, successfully killing off only 71.26% of penalties. This may be the confidence booster they need if they can get some calls from the officials, but I don’t see them improving much until Kris Letang returns to quarterback the top unit.

Calgary Flames

Friday 12/9 7:00 @Columbus

Saturday 12/10 7:00 @Toronto

When the dust finally settled on a dramatic off-season, the Flames were viewed by many as the favorite to win the Pacific, and potentially contend for a cup. The best top line in the world was dismantled when Johnny Hockey left Alberta at the altar for greener pastures in Ohio's largest cow town, while Matthew Tkachuk, the rat king himself was traded to Florida to be showered with his four legged subjects for every home playoff goal. The return from that trade (a playmaking winger to replace some of Gaudreau’s production and a much needed top 4 D-man) along with the signing of an elite center in Nazim Kadri, made Calgary look much deeper on paper and primed to make some noise in the postseason. Unfortunately for Flames fans, it’s taken some time for all these new parts to find chemistry together and adapt to the league’s most abrasive coach in Darrel Sutter. Surprisingly poor goaltending from Jacob Markstrom hasn’t helped the situation, and the Flames find themselves clinging to the second wildcard spot in the west with 29 points.

Calgary's last 10 games have shown improvement in all areas, they're 6-3-1 and the new players are looking more comfortable. The goaltending has improved dramatically, but instead of Markstrom finding his form it's come from Dan Vladar wrestling the starting job away for himself. Vladar has started 6 of those 10 games and gone 4-1-1 to the tune of a .924% save percentage and a goals against average of 2.16. The power play has also made dramatic strides in the last 10 contests, clicking at 27%. This is up quite a bit from the dreadful 13% rate they produced during the 10 game span prior to this recent run, bringing their season average to 20.93% which is good for 24th in the league. They still need work on the man advantage, but at least it's heading in the right direction.

This weekend road trip is an opportunity for the Flames to create some separation between themselves and the crowded group of bubble teams nipping at their heels for a playoff spot. Injury plagued Colorado and the chaoticly fun Canucks both sit 2 points behind them at 27, and Nashville (26)  and St Louis (27) are still within striking distance. Calgary may even have the opportunity to leapfrog their cross province rivals, as the Oilers are only one point ahead of them with 30 points in wild card one. 

Players To Watch

Elias Lindholm has proven he's still a top line center even without his dearly departed superstar wings. He's got 9 goals and 13 assists for 22 points on the season, and looks to extend a modest 3 game point streak against the porous Columbus defense Friday night. 

Kadri has been a great addition to the second line and the power play, boasting a 3 game point streak of his own in which he's assisted on 4 goals and buried 3 of his own, bringing him to 10 tucks and 10 helpers for 20 points on the season. 

MacKenzie Weegar hasn't lit up the score sheet the way he did in Florida, but he's been a possession monster, driving shot attempts at eye popping rates with 57.6% Corsi for and 57.8% Fenwick for. 

Keys To The Games

Goaltending is going to be the conversation in Calgary for the rest of the year. While Vladar has been the guy as of late, the organization is going to give their six million dollar man every opportunity to earn his job back. With a back to back featuring a team in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes, I would expect Markstrom to get an opportunity to build some confidence Friday night in Columbus. He’s 8-6-2 on the season with a save percentage of .899% and a 2.97 goals against average. 

The Flames have no excuse for leaving Columbus without picking up two points, the Blue Jackets are in free-fall and the fans were chanting for Brad Larsen to be fired in the third period Wednesday night after watching them get shit pumped 9-4 by Buffalo. Unfortunately for them, there’s one man in Union Blue who’s going to have some extra motivation to hurt the playoff chances of his former team, and his name is Johnny Gaudreau. He’s leading the Jackets in all categories with 9 goals, 19 assists, and 28 points, and Calgary needs to contain him to avoid starting this trip on a bad note.

The Maple Leafs are an absolute powerhouse, they’re coming off back to back shutouts of good teams, beating the Kings 5-0 and Dallas 4-0. Mitch Marner has extended his franchise record point streak to 21 games and Auston Matthews has awoken from his early season slumber with 5 goals and 5 assists in his last 6 games. Matt Murray has proven all the doubters wrong, boasting a .936% save percentage, a 2.34 goals against average, and he’s saved a whopping 8.9 goals above average on the season. The only way Calgary comes out of this matchup on top is to play disciplined, physical, defensive hockey and attack the Leafs’ injury riddled D corps with a fast and heavy forecheck. With Jake Muzzin, Morgan Rielly, and others out of the lineup there will be some inexperienced guys retrieving pucks behind their own net, and if the Flames can pressure them into some sloppy turnovers they just might have a shot. 

Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Saturday 12/10 @Tampa Bay 

The battle of Florida is alive and well. It’s been heating up for two years with a pair of incredibly nasty playoff series, but the addition of Matthew Tkachuk should push it to a boiling point. I’m not going to bore you with a pile of stats for this one, all you need to know is that it’s going to be high scoring and full of hate. These teams are separated by only 3 points, Tampa occupies the 3rd spot in the Atlantic with 33 points while the Panthers are looking to jump into a wildcard spot, they currently sit 1 point behind Detroit at 30. A regulation win for Florida helps them make up valuable ground in the ultra-competitive east and pulls them within striking distance of the Lightning. 

Players To Watch

Matthew Tkachuck has been worth every bit of the massive price Florida paid for him, he’s got 13 goals and 24 assists for 37 points through 25 games this season, with 8 of them coming in his last 4 games. Look for him to do more than score tomorrow afternoon though, he’s one of the most effective agitators in the league and is going to be slashing, cross checking, and doing anything else he can to make life miserable for the Lightning’s big guns.

Steven Stamkos is having a monster season, fueled by the disappointment of losing in the cup final after taking home Lord Stanley two years in a row. He’s riding a 12 game point streak, consisting of 7 goals and 12 assists, pushing his season point total to 32. 

Keys To The Game

This game should be high flying, back and forth action, and Tampa gets the edge based on their depth and advantage in net. Andrei Vasilevskiy is still the best goaltender in the world, even though he’s having a subpar season by his standards. If they can keep their composure and play their game, they should be able to close this one out. The Panthers have two players that love to drag teams into the mud and disrupt the focus of opposing superstars, Tkachuk and Sam Bennet will be going after the Lightning every time they’re on the ice and if they can knock them off their game without taking stupid penalties (Tampa has the 4th best powerplay in the league, clicking at a deadly 28.87%) they’ll give their team a solid chance at victory.

Thanks for checking out this week's installment of the beerly hockey NHL weekend preview! I'm aaron kinney and I'm on the Beerly Hockey Podcast found anywhere you listen to podcasts!

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