June MLB Awards Race
MLB Awards Race at the One-Third Mark of the Season
Now that the season is roughly a third of the way through, let’s see who the major awards leaders are.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Honorable Mention: Joe Ryan, RHP, Minnesota Twins
After coming up to Minnesota from Tampa Bay as part of the Nelson Cruz trade, Ryan only made 5 starts in 2021 before being named the Opening Day starter by manager Rocco Baldelli. For the past couple of weeks Ryan has been sitting on the COVID-19 IL, but was solid before that. Ryan has notched a 2.28 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his 8 starts this year, along with 43 strikeouts and only 12 walks, ranking in the 79th percentile in average exit velocity, according to Statcast. He’s doing a good job of limiting hard contact, but could stand to strike out more batters and draw fewer walks. He has been the best rookie starter so far, so a strong return can bring Ryan right back into the race for Rookie of the Year.
3. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals
Like many of the highly-touted rookies coming into this season, Witt Jr. has shown some struggles early. The speedy shortstop has shown flashes of star potential, with some clutch hitting and eye-popping highlights, but has yet to put it all together packaging his power-speed combination along with the rest of the Royals amid another rebuilding season. Witt Jr. is hitting .219 with 7 home runs and 8 steals, with an OPS of .690, 95 wRC+, and a 96 OPS+. The theme for this year’s rookies is patience, and Witt Jr. is no exception. He still possesses all the potential in the world as the consensus number 2 prospect in baseball, but he’s still working towards it. A stride towards some more consistency, especially in the walks department, would be a boon for his ROTY case.
2. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
The 21-year-old phenom surprised many by making Seattle’s Opening Day roster, and was a part of the reason the Mariners had heightened expectations coming into the season. So far, the results have been mixed, but lately the arrow has been pointing straight up. J-Rod got off to a slow start (with no help from the home plate umpires), but has been trending towards red-hot as of late. He leads the majors in steals with 17 and has 8 home runs to boot. Over his last 10 games, Rodriguez has put together 5 multi-hit games as the Mariners have started to turn their season around after a slow start. A slash line of .277/.332/.432 and a wRC+ of 127, along with ranking in the 87th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and sprint speed means that Rodriguez is here to stay, and very well may end up at the top of this list come September. Cutting down on the strikeouts is first on the agenda for J-Rod, but otherwise a star is already in the making in the Pacific Northwest.
1. Jeremy Peña, SS, Houston Astros
Many people (myself included) wondered how a rookie would fare stepping in the Shaq-sized shoes of current Minnesota Twin Carlos Correa, but so far Peña has stepped into the role in stride. His career started off with a bang as he hit his first home run while his parents were being interviewed on the Apple TV+ broadcast in Anaheim, and from there he’s hit the ground running. A torrid May lands Peña in the top spot on this list, as he slashed .333/.353/.519 with a 154 wRC+. He leads all rookies in home runs with 8, and is also providing great help on the other side of the ball ranking third in all of baseball with 1.2 dWAR. This is certain to be a fun race between Peña and Julio Rodriguez as both hope to help lead their teams to an AL West title, and win the Rookie of the Year Award.
National League
Honorable Mention: Luis Gonzalez, OF, San Francisco Giants
Leading all NL rookies in hits (35), Gonzalez has been a consistent hitting presence since he was called up in late April. In his 35 games in the MLB, he has slashed .321/.363/.446, being one of the Giants’ best hitters with a 129 wRC+. The main reason he’s not higher on this list is the weaker power numbers, ranking in the 18th percentile in average exit velocity and the 16th percentile in hard-hit percentage. He also hasn’t been great on the defensive side with -4 OAA thus far. However, there’s no arguing his ability to get hits as a young force for an aging San Francisco squad.
3. Nolan Gorman, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
Gorman has gotten off to one of the hottest starts of any rookie this year, National or American League, and has provided a shot in the arm to a Cardinals team that is trying to hold steady with Milwaukee in the NL Central standings. In only 14 games and 46 at-bats, St. Louis’ top infield prospect has provided 14 hits with a blistering 172 OPS+ and 168 wRC+. In addition to being just a plain great hitter so far, he’s been cool and collected in clutch situations. Gorman has provided a much-needed left-handed power bat to the Cards’ lineup. He has 3 home runs already, as compared to the rest of the team’s lefty hitters combining for 5 home runs as of May 30, according to Cardinals beat writer Rob Rains. I wish I could write more about Gorman, but he’s simply too new to the big leagues to expand on what I’ve already written. Even Baseball Savant doesn’t even have its full array of advanced stats for him yet! When September and October roll around he’ll still be a force to be reckoned with.
2. Seiya Suzuki, OF, Chicago Cubs
Seiya Suzuki, the Japanese import, got off to a red-hot start getting on base and remained hot before getting put on the IL with a sprained finger on May 30th. April’s NL Rookie of the Month is slashing .245/.344/.432 and is second in all rookies in walks. He ranks in the 89th percentile in walks, while also being in the top fourth in the MLB in average exit velocity and barrel percentage. He isn’t chasing pitches either, ranking in the 94th percentile in chase rate. Earlier on in the season, he was seen as the runaway favorite to win the NL ROTY. Mackenzie Gore’s performance has leapfrogged him since, but Suzuki has stayed strong in his first season in the United States. While he hasn’t been as full of fireworks as some of the other rookies in the big leagues, Seiya Suzuki has been a consistent outfield presence in Chicago for a team with some talent looking to break out of its rebuild sooner rather than later.
1. Mackenzie Gore, LHP, San Diego Padres
One of the Padres’ top pitching prospects, Gore obviously came in with high expectations and so far has passed every test with flying colors. After his last start on June 4th, Gore became the only MLB pitcher to have 55+ strikeouts and an ERA of 1.50 or lower over his first 9 career appearances, according to Stats by Stats. With 5 more scoreless innings pitched, he would qualify for the National League lead in ERA. The southpaw takes advantage of his fiery fastball, using it on 64% of his pitches, while also incorporating a curveball, slider, and changeup. His latest outing watched him put up six scoreless innings, allowing only three hits and striking out ten against the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers. He’s gone at least 5 innings in all of his starts so far, and lands in the 86th percentile in strikeout percentage. The young flamethrower projects to be a key part of Bob Melvin’s rotation for years to come, especially for a Padres team aiming to contend for a World Series title in the next few years.
Cy Young
American League
Honorable Mention: Shane McClanahan, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
The American League’s strikeout leader is riding a 2.10 ERA to help carry a Rays rotation that is still missing Tyler Glasnow. He provides an overpowering fastball with a nasty slider and curveball to bolster his arsenal, and he ranks in the top 25 percentile in almost all of Baseball Savant’s pitching metrics, including within the top fifth percentile in strikeout percentage, xwOBA, xERA, and whiff percentage. His 36% strikeout rate compared to his 4.9% walk rate means he’s pounding the zone and blowing pitches right by the batters. The young gun will continue to grow, and even though he isn’t in the top 3 right now, don’t be surprised if he ends the season competing for the top spot in the Cy Young race.
3. Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers
Before spending the last 4 years in Minnesota and Boston, Perez began his career in Arlington, always being a good-not-great rotation arm. This year, however, he’s been unreal. After putting up a 4.74 ERA and a 4.82 FIP as a member of the Red Sox last year, Perez signed a 1 year $4M deal with the Rangers. In 11 starts this year he’s been unbelievable. He’s all the way down to a 1.56 ERA with a 2.53 FIP. He was named the American League Pitcher of the Month for May after going 4-0 with a 0.64 ERA (3 earned runs!) with 33 strikeouts and a complete-game shutout in the month, while also going at least 6 IP in each of his starts. He became the first American League pitcher to allow zero home runs in a month with at least 40 innings pitched since Clay Buchholz in 2015. He ranks third in the American League in overall WAR, first for pitching WAR, and fourth in FIP. His walk and strikeout numbers are mostly similar to last year, but this year he’s been much better at limiting hard contact, as his ground ball rate went way up and his home run to fly ball ratio cratered from 16% last year to 1.6% thus far in 2022. The main question for Perez is can he keep it up? If so, we may have another unexpected AL Cy Young winner.
2. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
After a terrific two-year stint in San Francisco, Gausman signed with Toronto in the offseason to a 5 year, $110M contract to serve as the Blue Jays’ replacement for departed Cy Young winner Robbie Ray. While Ray hasn’t exactly returned to his 2021 form in Seattle, Gausman has flourished up north. He has the best FIP in all of Major League Baseball at 1.61, miles ahead of Tarik Skubal’s second-place 2.10 FIP. He also ranks in the top 10 in strikeouts per 9 innings and is second in the American League in walks per 9. His fiery fastball combined with a flat-out unhittable splitter helps him rank in the 100th(!) percentile in chase rate while also ranking in the top fourth in strikeout, whiff, and walk percentage. Gausman has provided exactly what Toronto was looking for when they chose to sign him over retaining Robbie Ray.
1. Nestor Cortes Jr., LHP, New York Yankees
If you want to talk about unexpected, that basically summarizes Nestor Cortes Jr.’s entire journey to this point. I could realistically make a case for 3 different Yankee starters for this spot (former Pittsburgh teammates Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon have also been excellent), but Cortes gets it here. The former 36th round draft pick spent his first major league season in 2018 in Baltimore only pitching in 4 games, but returned to New York in 2019 and carved out a nice role for himself, serving as the bulk relief pitcher on days the Yankees used an opener, following Chad Green most of the time taking innings two through six. The Yankees designated Cortes for assignment following that year, and he spent 2020 in a minor bullpen role in Seattle. Re-signing with New York in 2021, Cortes really started to show some upside, transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation out of necessity when the Yankees rotation was decimated by injuries. He’s exploded on the scene since then. His funky delivery and pitch mix throw off all hitters and has helped put himself atop Major League Baseball with a 1.50 ERA. Arguably the biggest surprise this year has been Cortes’ ability to go deeper into games. In 2021 it was considered a victory for Cortes to get through six innings. This year, he’s consistently hitting 7 and 8 innings an outing, even carrying a complete game shutout bid into the 9th against the Rays. He ranks in the top third percentile of pitchers in almost all major metrics, with his cutter, fastball, and slider combination constantly keeping hitters on their toes. Cortes’ start looks legit, and if he can stay strong with a bigger workload, the Yankees may have a Cy Young winner, but definitely not the one they expected.
National League
Honorable Mention: Joe Musgrove, RHP, San Diego Padres
Musgrove started off hot last year, with the SoCal kid throwing the first no-hitter in Padres history. A great story, for sure. In addition, Musgrove was pretty much the only man left standing building a solid season after pretty much everything that could go wrong did go wrong in San Diego last year, leading to Jayce Tingler’s ouster. This year, Musgrove is continuing to chug along under Bob Melvin’s new management. While some pitchers on this list may have flashier strikeout numbers or more dazzling pitch mixes, Musgrove simply does not let guys on the basepaths. His average exit velocity and Barrel% both rank in the 80th percentile or better. Even if it’s a bad stat to use, he’s also one of the few pitchers remaining with spotless records at 6-0. He has the second-best WHIP in the NL and fifth-best walk rate, so as long as he continues to limit hard contact at an elite rate, he can stay in this race for the long run.
3. Pablo Lopez, LHP, Miami Marlins
Ground balls, ground balls, ground balls. That has been the story for Lopez, as he ranks near the top in NL ERA at 2.18. Even if his K/9 rate has gone down by a strikeout per nine, his HardHit% continues to drop. A top-10 WHIP at 0.96 means he’s not getting a lot of guys on base while limiting hard contact. As long as Lopez keeps the ball on the ground and limits the damage on the basepaths, the young southpaw can continue to work as a dangerous number 2 in what has the potential to be an electric pitching staff in South Beach.
2. Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins
In comparison to his teammate mentioned above, Alcantara is the unquestioned leader of Miami’s rotation. Having been one of baseball’s best-kept secrets, Alcantara is finally getting the love he deserves. The main reason for his lack of attention is that he’s been stuck on a Marlins team that has been almost allergic to offense since his breakout. He’s notched only 18 wins in his last 51 starts, with 37 quality starts. The best example of this is throwing 9 shutout innings on Wednesday while having to settle with a No-Decision (the Marlins ended up winning on a walk-off in the tenth inning). That’s baseball, Suzyn. On the mound, Alcantara sports a blazing 1.61 ERA with 77 strikeouts over 83.2 innings. He leads all MLB pitchers in WAR and innings pitched and ranks within the top tenth percentile in Chase Rate, xBA, xERA, xwOBA, and xSLG. Miami’s top fireballer continues to build off strong seasons and is really showing out thus far. If he continues to dazzle and go deep into games, he can continue to bring some excitement deep down in Florida.
1. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Last year’s Cy Young winner hasn’t been a disappointment by a long shot, but after his absurd 2021 campaign, anything less feels like a letdown for Burnes. Even after a subpar Opening Day outing in Chicago, Burnes has come along steadily with a 2.48 ERA and 92 strikeouts, most in the National League. Arguably the best part of Burnes’ pitching pedigree is his impeccable ball placement. He simply does not walk anyone. In fact, in Thursday’s outing against the Phillies, he set a career-high in walks with 4. That feels absolutely ridiculous. A look at his Baseball Savant page shows him being in the red (the redder the better) in almost every metric, something that can’t be said by very many players. He relies on a cutter that absolutely paints corners, throwing it 55% of the time to great success. The only thing that could put a damper on his repeat campaign is the long ball. His FIP, HR%, and Fly Ball% have all increased from last year, something that was to be expected after all of those metrics reached historic levels in 2021. If he can get back to limiting the long ball and continuing to not give out free passes, Corbin Burnes has a great chance to become the first NL pitcher to repeat as the Cy Young winner since Jacob DeGrom did it in 2018 and 2019.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Honorable Mention: Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels
Had this been written two weeks ago, this list would probably look much different, with Trout and Judge running headlong into each other for the lead in the MVP race. Time has passed, and so has the Angels’ hot start. They finally ended a franchise-record 14-game losing streak, and fired their manager Joe Maddon on Tuesday, with Phil Nevin set to take over in the interim. This isn’t like most struggles in Anaheim, where Trout is still performing in spite of the team around him; he’s been outright terrible during this skid as well. He too is stuck in a career-worst slump, at one point going hitless in 26 straight at-bats. And yet, he’s still in the running because of his blistering start to the year and the fact that he’s Mike-freaking-Trout. He still ranks near the top in home runs and wRC+. However, to add injury to insult, Trout left Wednesday’s game with a groin injury (and is still currently day-to-day). If the Angels want any hope to turn around this free-fall, they’ll need Trout to be on the field and playing like himself again. The same can be said for his MVP hopes.
3. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox got off to a very rough start, falling to last place in the AL East, even behind the Orioles, for a short time. Today, they’re still in fourth place, but they have rebounded to make it back to above .500, and currently stand in a wild card spot. Their slugger at third is a big reason why. Devers leads all of baseball in total hits and bases and has really stepped up his play on the defensive end. In the month of May, Devers led the American League with a ridiculous 221 wRC+ and 1.132 OPS. The Boston infield as a whole is due for a hot streak as Devers, Trevor Story, and Xander Bogaerts will be needed to provide the offensive spark down the stretch. If the Red Sox want to continue to make a surge heading into the summer, Devers will have to put the team on his back some nights, which the young gun is certainly capable of handling and has already done so quite a bit this year.
2. Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians
If this exercise were truly about the most valuable player to a franchise, Jose Ramirez may be running away with the award each of the past three to four seasons. He’s in the running for the best third basemen in baseball, with a pretty good case for the top spot. He hits from both sides for power, contact, can run, and has been a very good defender. J-Ram finally got his extension this year, as if Cleveland's upper management were to trade him or let him walk there may have been riots at Progressive Field. Ramirez is once again carrying a subpar lineup on his back as the Guardians look to remain in the fight for a playoff spot. He leads the American League in RBIs and is second in walks. He has the third most extra-base hits in the AL and has been able to keep up with his red-hot start, something fellow early-season phenom Steven Kwan can’t say the same for. Cleveland will likely land around the 80-85 win mark, with Ramirez putting up eye-popping numbers once again, only to land in the top 3 without an MVP trophy yet. But not to worry, J-Ram, you’re still revered as one of the top guys at the hot corner still.
1. Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
Aaron Judge decided to bet on himself, and is raking in the benefits with every passing day. Judge opted not to sign an extension prior to Opening Day, and will instead wait until free agency for a new contract. Brian Cashman better hope Hal Steinbrenner can back up the Brinks truck. The 6’7, 280-pound mammoth right fielder leads all of Major League Baseball with 22 home runs, a 3.2 offensive WAR, a 1.070 OPS, and a ridiculous 202 wRC+, putting him on pace for well over 60 home runs. Not only that, he’s hitting for contact as well, racking up a slash line of .315/.385/.685. Judge has also been hitting well in the clutch, highlighted by a walk-off home run off Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano that went soaring into the left field bleachers of Yankee Stadium. Looking at his spray chart, Judge has shown the ability to put the ball anywhere and everywhere while hitting it very hard. He ranks in the 95th percentile or better in xBA and Max Exit Velocity (98th percentile) and sits in the 100th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, Barrel%, xSLG, and xwOBA. He’s managing to do all of this while still playing his signature great defense in the outfield, even appearing in centerfield at points this year. Aaron Judge has been the unquestioned leader of the best team in baseball at this point in the season, and if he keeps it up at this rate, he won’t only be the AL MVP, he’ll have cemented one of the all-time great single seasons. All in a contract year. Pay the man.
National League
Honorable Mention: Bryce Harper, RF/DH, Philadelphia Phillies
Last year’s winner of the award, Harper has not done much to regress from last year’s campaign. Many of the reasons why he isn’t higher on this list aren’t necessarily in his control. First, Harper has been dealing with an elbow injury for almost a month now. He was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL but is still able to hit. However, this has limited him to the DH role, and can’t really throw. This puts him at a disadvantage for being slightly one-dimensional, but in the single dimension he’s playing right now, he’s still among the game’s elites. He ranks near the top of the NL with 14 home runs and 45 RBIs. He’s still beating the living daylights out of the ball, to the tune of ranking in the 94th percentile or better in Average Exit Velocity, Barrel%, HardHit% xwOBA, xSLG, and xBA. His 165 wRC+ ranks in the top 10 in all of baseball, especially impressive given that the Phillies as a whole have struggled (leading to firing manager Joe Girardi), and the aforementioned UCL injury. If Harper can get back into the field and continue to rake in the batter’s box, he still has a chance to be the first repeat NL MVP winner since Albert Pujols in 2008 and 2009, and the first in the MLB since Miguel Cabrera’s 2012 and 2013 victories.
3. Mookie Betts, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
After an uncharacteristic 2021 season that saw him miss 40 games and have merely average splits for his career, prime Mookie Betts is back. And man, is it good to see. Betts is tied for the National League lead in home runs, is second in wRC+, and is still playing his usual elite defense while being an above-average baserunner. Betts at his peak is as well-rounded as it comes, and this year is showing just as much. He ranks in the 89th percentile in HardHit%, while also being in the 93rd percentile in both Whiff% and Chase Rate. He’s swinging at good pitches and getting them in the right spot off the bat. He has the third-best overall WAR among position players and leads the MLB in Total Zone Runs, which measures the number of runs above or below average a player is worth based on the number of plays made. All in all, Betts is a true two-way star who excels in all facets of the game, and when he’s on he is one of the most electrifying players in the game. Only Paul Goldschmidt compared to Betts in the hitting department in May, and 2022 is looking like a return to form, with maybe another MVP on the horizon.
2. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
While Rafael Devers dominated the month of May in the American League, 2022’s King of May in the National League was Paul Goldschmidt. In his age-34 season, Goldschmidt has been absolutely raking. Even though his hitting streak ended at 26 games, Goldy leads the National League in batting average and is slashing .341/.421/.602. He’s one of 3 players with an OPS over 1.000, and the only one in the National League. If you think Devers’ May wRC+ was insane, Goldschmidt was on another planet with a 252 wRC+. He also slashed .406/.471/.817, leading all of baseball with a blistering 1.288 OPS and a .451 BABIP. By any metric you choose to look at, Goldschmidt was the best hitter in the month of May for a Cardinals team that needs his contributions as Nolan Arenado continues to excel, along with young call-ups Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. By the end of the season he’ll be 35, but Goldy is turning back the clock and could add an MVP to his resume if the Cardinals stay successful and Goldy keeps hitting.
1. Manny Machado, 3B, San Diego Padres
As much as I just gushed over Paul Goldschmidt’s flaming hot May, Manny Machado has continued to be the figure carrying San Diego to success since Opening Day. Franchise cornerstone Fernando Tatis Jr. still has yet to play in 2022, and Machado has picked up the slack in a big way. First, obviously, Machado has remained elite defensively at the hot corner. This was to be expected, although being in the 97th percentile in OAA is nothing to scoff at. His contributions at the plate, however, have been a welcomed force for a team playing without its offensive superstar. Machado ranks second in the NL in total hits behind Goldschmidt and ranks 10th in Major League Baseball with a .944 OPS. He also boasts a 164 wRC+, good for 11th in baseball, in addition to leading the majors in WAR among position players at 3.4. Though he isn’t producing at the same level as he was in April, he is the driving force behind a team that is just 2 games behind the Dodgers, a consensus top-three team in the league, with a tangibly worse lineup and missing a star. He has a legitimate shot to win the batting title, while still showcasing elite defense and clutch hitting. As long as he is top dog in San Diego and the Padres keep winning, Machado will be contending for NL MVP, and may still be a front-runner even after Tatis comes back.
All stats from Baseball Savant, FanGraphs, and Baseball-Reference.
