Way Too Early Fantasy Football Mock Draft 1.0

I Can't Wait For Football...

#1 Jonathan Taylor

Ceiling: #1

Floor: #4

     Hopefully the Dort Curse does not get to JT but he should be the undisputed 1st overall pick. Matt Ryan is an upgrade over Carson Wentz, so the passing offense should open up and make this offense an actual threat and this will relieve some pressure off of Taylor, as well as getting some yards in the air.

     Not too many injury concerns surround Jonathan Taylor which cannot be said about the 2nd pick (spoiler alert, Christian McCaffrey), but the main concern with JT is that he doesn't gap anyone 1st to 4th too much, so you may be drafting the fourth best fantasy football player with the 1st overall selection, which I guess isn't really the end of the world.

     If I were to end up with this pick I would definitely take JT, but if given the opportunity to trade back for later assets I would definitely entertain the thought to trade back to 4th and take whoever falls to that spot.

#2 Christian McCaffrey

Ceiling: #1

Floor: #4

     McCaffrey is so good at football. Every year CMC has the potential to break every running back receiving stat and everyone gets heart eyes when they get the 1st overall pick because who would not want someone like that on their fantasy team.

     The injury bug is a scare for McCaffrey and that is as much as I am going to say about it because everybody knows, and every fantasy writer is going to write paragraphs on paragraphs about how scared they are of McCaffrey but CMC is so clearly worth the risk with all that he brings to the table.

     In CMC's seven games he played last season, he had only one fumble. Despite only having two touchdowns on the year, he rushed for 4.5 yards per carry and in games where he caught more then 2 passes, he averaged 66.8 yards receiving. 

     Now Carolina’s offense is not overpowering, but they have a lot of solid pieces. But this year they will need to feature CMC heavily if they want to compete, and since moving on from Cam Newton after last year, QB, Sam Darnold knows how much he has to prove until next year when Matt Coral should start seeing playing time. So hopefully Darnold plays better with a chip on his shoulder to prove to the Panthers front office that he is irreplaceable.

#3 Derrick Henry

Ceiling: #1

Floor: #3

     If the #1 or #2 pick fall into your hands, JT and CMC are your safe picks, but if you want the most recent running back in MVP conversations, Henry is your guy.

     Derrick Henry would have won MVP if he didn't get hurt and I will fight with everyone on that. Healthy Henry is so special and one of the only players in the NFL that can physically take over a game without playing the quarterback position. Between weeks 2-6 of the Titans 2021 season, prior to Henry’s injury, King Henry had 5.14 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns.

     The only game that Henry fumbled in last year was the game he was injured. Henry was so unstoppable that the Titans risked their whole season to get Henry into that playoff game, and although that would likely cost them their season, the Titans knew that they could not win the ever-so-elusive Super Bowl without the King’s presence in the game.

     We do have to talk about Henry missing the majority of last season, and that’s it. In all seriousness the loss of A.J. Brown is going to really hurt the Titans offense and it truly does make their offense one dimensional. They did add Austin Hooper and Robert Woods and some may argue that their offense could be better with that but it just raises the question “What coulda been?” if they had Brown still on this team for this 2022 season. 

#4 Travis Kelce

Ceiling: #2

Floor: #8

     Let’s get weird...

     Travis Kelce is due to have a remarkable season and I am going to fight for my life in this article to convince you to take him with your 4th pick. 

     Now, Kelce is the first pass catcher off the board and the Chiefs' loss of WR, Tyreek Hill is the biggest reason for that. Last season felt like the connection between Kelce and his QB, Patrick Mahomes was not as strong as seasons prior, despite the iconic moment vs the Bills in the AFC Divisional.

     Before last season, it felt like when Mahomes did not have anything open closeby, he would just kind of throw it up to Kelce's direction, but last year, roles kind of switched and Mahomes would just toss it down the field and hope Hill would catch up to the ball and make a play on it. Obviously, without this option (Hill) Mahomes needs an old friend to be a new go-to target and who better than Travis Kelce. Now-Dolphins WR, Tyreek Hill finished last year in KC with 20 more catches then Kelce. 

     Now obviously teams are going to double and probably even triple team Kelce, but the difference between that and any other player being doubled is other players do not have Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback. We have seen it time and time again, Mahomes pocket breaks and he runs out and just chucks it up, well this year he does not have a Tyreek Hill to chuck it up too so it's Kelce time every time. 

     Kelce is also in a very similar situation to CMC. The Chiefs offense is not very star-studded outside of Mahomes and Kelce. I can see a lot of sweeps, slants, and drags all game while also incorporating curl routes for Kelce to catch in space and go to work. 

     Lastly, we all know how much the Chiefs hate running the football and RB, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has a lot to prove at that position. This offense is going to be slinging the ball all game as they do so well. Once the Chiefs get to the red zone they have no other target to feed in the end zone other than Big Kelce. Take him early.

#5 Najee Harris

Ceiling: #3

Floor: #11

     Najee Harris is the big ‘jump’ guy this year in fantasy. If Harris can take a big leap this season, he could finish as the top fantasy scorer because he is an absolute animal in the inside run game.

     Harris will be in a similar situation to Henry where he is going to be the featured player in this Steeler offense that seems to be barely average, if that. WR, Chase Claypool is another player due for a jump this season and the same can be said for second-year TE, Pat Freiermuth. WR, Diontae Johnson also is going to be a key for this offense but will a rookie quarterback be trusted in Mike Tomlin’s offense, or even better… Mitchell Trubisky?

     It will be a year filled with uncertainty for Pittsburgh but the only thing that looks certain is Najee’s talent. We have seen Claypool and Johnson disappear at times but never Harris during his rookie year.

      Last season, despite the “better” passer, QB Big Ben went on his farewell tour and Najee Harris had the second most rushing attempts across the whole league as a rookie. Harris had 1200 rushing yards on the season but what went under the radar is Najee’s pass catching ability. Harris averaged 5.5 targets this past season which are slot receiver numbers at running back. Harris is going to get the opportunities and this will result in a monstrous season from the second year back.

#6 Alvin Kamara

Ceiling: #1

Floor: Early Round Two

     I want to preface this player breakdown by saying I personally think Kamara is the second best running back in the league, when healthy, behind only Derrick Henry.

     Kamara may be a reach at 6th but if I were making every pick in a first round fantasy draft, this would be my target at 6th, and this is the most ‘Dort’ pick one can make. When I am drafting in fantasy sports I tend to take the most high-risk high-reward player available, last year I took RB, Saquon Barkley with the 11th pick and I went on the record and said I would take Anthony Davis 1st overall in NBA fantasy basketball, because if it proves to be a reward, my fantasy teams have a huge advantage with the later round picks.

     AK got into some legal trouble and his trial is not until June, but reports already say that he is unlikely to miss time. Kamara also has had injury history over his whole career sadly. Lastly, the Saints offense just is not the same as it once was, WR, Michael Thomas and QB, Jameis Winston are huge question marks and Sean Payton will not be there to coach the team anymore.

     Hopefully I did not scare you away too much from Kamara so let me tell you why you should at least consider him if you land a top pick. AK did not crack ten touchdowns last season but we all know he has the talent to lead the league in that stat. Because we are doing a half-ppr league, we do have to talk about how lethal Kamara is in the passing game. Out of Kamara’s nine touchdowns, five of them came through the air and four of them he rushed in all with very inconsistent and abysmal Saints QB play.

     In 2021, the Saints had four different quarterbacks take snaps over the regular season, so it was difficult for Kamara to get into any rhythm offensively. He had a game last year where he recorded zero targets vs the Giants and then had a game where he caught ten balls for 128 yards and a touchdown vs the Seahawks; so the same can be said for his rushing attempts. The last game of the season, Kamara rushed the ball 30 times once the team had some sort of offensive identity.

     Hopefully, with more consistency on the field Kamara will get more consistent and meaningful touches. It is clear that the Taysom Hill experiment is done and now with Winston finally being fully healthy, although he is not the best, he is a consistent threat throwing the ball down the field and that should open everything up for Alvin this season.

#7 Austin Ekeler

Ceiling: #4

Floor: Early Round Two

     The general outlook on Ekeler is similar to my perspective on Kamara, he is high risk high reward, but with the Chargers disappointment of a season last year it is hard to favor any of their players. 

     Now fantasy has nothing to do with team success but it does have a lot to do with the team around the picks you make and the Charger’s roster is really good but they have recently been very inconsistent.

     Now it may sound like I am hating when it comes to Ekeler and that is because I am. As a writer I should just be delivering facts and let you make the decision but my gut tells me not to take Ekeler this year despite him being one of the best receiving backs in the league and his quarterback going to improve after one more year.

     To keep it short and sweet, my gut says no but go with whatever your gut says. I am not pushing an agenda I am letting you know straight up he is a good player I am just not a fan. No pressure just choose between my gut and yours.

#8 Josh Allen

Ceiling: #4

Floor: Early Round Three

     Do it… be that guy. Take the quarterback in the first round this year. Come on, he's right in front of you.

     In all seriousness, in most cases, I am against taking a quarterback in the first round, in other words don’t be that guy, but Josh Allen is an exception this year. Allen is going to have threats all across the field. Gabriel Davis is due to make a big jump this year after the Bills last game of the season where he had one of the best games we have ever seen from a wide receiver in the playoffs. Jamison Crowder was also a great addition to the team, even though Crowder, statistically, has been regressing in recent years.

     Every season Crowder was with the Jets, his targets and yards went down; but let's look at why. In those three seasons he was in New York, he had seven different starting quarterbacks and now he will be having a quarterback better than all those guys combined, yeah.... Josh Allen.

     Let's talk about it. Chiefs QB, Patrick Mahomes lost one of his top tools, Packers QB, Aaron Rodgers lost the best receiver in the NFL and Tom Brady is old (what else can you say bad about the guy?). Everyone else seems to not be on Allen’s level.

     The other positions, except Kelce, are a crap shoot at who will be the best at their position but this one seems to be a guaranteed lock.

     Imagining a draft where you end up with the best tight end, Kelce, and the best QB, Allen, is perfect if you are effective at scouting late round talent.

#9 Cooper Kupp

Ceiling: #5
Floor: #12

     Cooper Kupp exploded onto the scene last season. Every NFL fan knew he was solid but you're lying if you say you knew he was going to be top tier, or as he was last season... Top 1.

     Cooper Kupp, last season, had 1000 more yards then he did in the prior season but what makes it even weirder is that it only took Kupp another 50 receptions to do this going from 92 receptions to 145 receptions. 

     Now as much as it hurts me to say it, a lot of this was on the acquisition of Matthew Stafford (There will be no Jared Goff slander). Stafford makes it a easier for Cupp because he is a downfield threat with a downfield arm. Now with a Super Bowl and a year under their belt, the chemistry should be even better than what we saw last season... Get your hands on Cooper Kupp this year.

    Not too much to say on Kupp as his team didn't change too much at all on the offensive side of the ball, but my only question I would have is... Is Cooper Kupp a one year wonder? I don't have the answer for you here. That's up to you come draft time... Good luck!

#10 Dalvin Cook

Ceiling: #7

Floor: Middle Round Two

     Dalvin Cook could finish as the top player in fantasy football. I said could.

     Although Cook had the second-most rushing yards of his career last season, it still felt like a down year for Dalvin and some of that may have been on his team's record and a little more of that is the standard we all have for Dalvin.

     Cook’s teammate, WR, Justin Jefferson just barely(beerly) missed out on this list but he is due for an even bigger season than his already impressive two he has already had. Jefferson is a young receiver and he was just getting into form in the second half of the season. Through his first 8 weeks, Jefferson had 5.75 receptions a game and in his last 9, he had near 7.  Second half Jefferson is what we should see throughout the entire year and that is going to open up a ton for Cook underneath. 

     Dalvin has only been in the NFL for four years, although it feels like much longer. In those four years, it has felt like he has the tools to be a top five back in the last three of them. Cook just has not had the tools around him and has been plagued with the injury bug, but raw skill is what makes him a top ten pick in fantasy. If the Vikings can figure it out and help Cook stay healthy, watch out...

#11 Stefon Diggs

Ceiling: #8

Floor: Early Round Three

     To have Josh Allen at 8 and not have his top target somewhere in the first round would be criminal. The Bills are due for another great year and a lot of their success will be on Diggs' success.

     WR, Stefon Diggs is an absolute nightmare for defensive backs. The thing that makes Diggs such a fantasy machine is his relationship with Josh Allen. If nothing is open, Allen tends to just throw it up to Diggs because of their strong trust. This means one thing... extra fantasy points for you. 

     Last season, Diggs had four games where he had 13+ targets and in the last game of the season, he had 14. The odd thing about Diggs last season was despite averaging 9.6 receptions a game, he only had two games where he had over 100 yards. Won't be the case this season with the Bills' offense being more lethal, Diggs will stack up yards because the touchdowns aren’t an issue as he had ten of 'em last season. He's good for at least 10 more this year.

#12 Ja'Marr Chase

Ceiling: #10

Floor: Middle Round Three

     I will die on this hill... The end of the perfect first round should conclude with WR, Ja’Marr Chase. Chase is due for a huge follow-up season that follows his ROTY campaign. Chase is in a similar situation to WR, Stefon Diggs where he will be getting many targets because of his relationship with his QB, Joey B.

     After signing some offensive line help for QB, Joe Burrow who had little to no time nor protection in the pocket last season, Chase with time to get down the field and break some ankles will be a scary sight for defensive backs. The offensive line was a real struggle for the Bengals and after a Super Bowl run last year, the Bengals are going to want to get back there again. 

      "I am not going to accept losing." QB, Joe Burrow said heading into the season.

     Simply put, the Bengals need Chase to succeed so they can succeed and I have faith in them so I have faith in Chase. Get this man on your fantasy roster.

Honorable Mentions & Closing

     There’s a lot of players that could have made this list obviously so before we wrap this all up let’s look at these honorable mentions. (This list is not in order.)

• WR, Justin Jeferson
• RB, Joe Mixon
• RB, Leonard Fournette
• RB, Javonte Williams
• TE, Mark Andrews
• WR, Tyreek Hill
• WR, Davante Adams
• QB, Patrick Mahomes
• QB, Aaron Rodgers
• RB, Antonio Gibson

     These players may work their way up as the offseason continues to progress and we get news on these teams. Some may be bigger reaches than others, but all of these players definitely have a chance at being first round talents.

   If you want to hear more about Football you can check out our podcast, The Beerly Football Podcast, by clicking here. If you want to hear more from me you can check me out on The Beerly Hoops Podcast by clicking here.

     Lastly, if you want to talk to me tweet at me or DM me @dort_lil on Twitter, link is also below. The other way to contact me would be through Discord and you can join by clicking here.